The euro rose briefly on upbeat regional data but faced renewed pressure as focus shifted to key U.S. releases. The pound held near recent highs but was capped by weak growth prospects and geopolitical worries. The yen gained amid trade tensions and solid domestic sentiment, while the dollar’s weakness kept it under pressure. The Australian dollar surged, riding the wave of global risk appetite despite mixed local data. Gold rebounded as investors weighed inflation risks, Fed policy outlook, and political uncertainty, maintaining a cautious bullish tone amid a volatile backdrop.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Drivers:
- Euro supported briefly by better-than-expected Eurozone manufacturing PMI.
- Germany’s CPI unexpectedly dropped to ECB’s 2.0% target; retail sales fell sharply.
- Market focus has shifted to the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and Powell’s remarks.
- ECB expected to remain cautious amid mixed inflation signals.
USD Side:
- Dollar strength may return if U.S. data proves robust and Powell reinforces hawkish policy.
- Persistent inflation and solid job market conditions support the Fed’s cautious stance.
Forecast:
- Bullish bias remains above 1.1748 support; rally likely toward 1.1913 if dollar weakens.
- Break below 1.1589 may invalidate bullish structure and resume bearish pressure.
Support: 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
Resistance: 1.1826, 1.1874, 1.1913
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
- Drivers:
- Pound gains on reduced U.S. tariffs via UK–U.S. trade deal, especially for car and aerospace sectors.
- Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, reinforcing concerns of UK economic slowdown.
- Market remains cautious due to inflation pressure and possible UK recession risks.
- USD Side:
- Powell’s stance and incoming ISM & JOLTS data remain pivotal.
- Strong U.S. readings could cap GBP/USD rally.
- Forecast:
- GBP likely to remain bullish above 1.3675; next target is 1.3838.
- A break below 1.3470 could trigger reversal and broader downside move.
- Support: 1.3675, 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
- Resistance: 1.3748, 1.3838, 1.4000
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Drivers:
- Yen firmed after strong Japanese Tankan survey, reflecting resilience among manufacturers.
- Tensions rise as U.S. maintains tariffs on Japanese car imports.
USD Side:
- Weak U.S. manufacturing or labor data could continue to pressure USD.
- Political pressure on the Fed and Powell’s comments are key short-term catalysts.
Forecast:
- Bearish trend remains below 143.64; next key downside target is 141.96.
- A push above 145.95 could trigger a reversal and resume uptrend.
Support: 143.64, 143.37, 142.64, 141.96
Resistance: 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Drivers:
- AUD strength largely due to U.S. dollar weakness, not domestic fundamentals.
- Australian inflation slowed, labor data disappointed; RBA remains cautious.
- Market ignoring weak Aussie data due to Fed-related USD decline.
USD Side:
- Broader greenback weakness triggered by political interference, fiscal concerns, and dovish Fed expectations.
- Trump’s comments on Powell, tariff policy, and U.S. budget outlook undermine dollar strength.
Forecast:
- Bullish momentum continues if AUD/USD holds above 0.6580; next target 0.6650.
- Pullbacks toward 0.6520–0.6550 range may offer renewed buying opportunities.
Support: 0.6540, 0.6485, 0.6430
Resistance: 0.6580, 0.6650, 0.6700
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Drivers:
- Gold rebounded from recent lows due to weaker U.S. dollar and growing rate cut bets.
- PCE inflation rose, but Powell still hinted at potential rate cuts later in the year.
- Safe-haven demand fluctuates based on geopolitical developments (Middle East, tariffs).
USD Side:
- Political pressure on the Fed and slower growth signal rate cuts, supporting gold.
- Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and trade war rhetoric boost gold’s appeal.
Forecast:
- Bullish above 3301; potential upside toward 3336 and 3350.
- Break above 3350 confirms continuation toward 3405–3444.
- Pullbacks to 3274–3250 may offer buy opportunities; below 3246 risks further downside.
Support: 3301, 3274, 3246
Resistance: 3336, 3350, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
📊 Summary Table: As of July 2, 2025
| Asset | Outlook | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1581 | 1.1826, 1.1874, 1.1913 | Mixed Eurozone inflation, all eyes on U.S. data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish | 1.3675, 1.3591, 1.3471 | 1.3748, 1.3838, 1.4000 | Trade deal helps GBP, but weak UK PMI limits upside |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish | 143.64, 142.64, 141.96 | 144.96, 145.95, 146.62 | Strong Yen sentiment, weak USD could push pair lower |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | 0.6540, 0.6485, 0.6430 | 0.6580, 0.6650, 0.6700 | Aussie gains on USD weakness despite weak local data |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3301, 3274, 3246 | 3336, 3350, 3405, 3444 | Gold rises as Fed rate cut bets grow and USD weakens |
