The euro stayed range-bound amid quiet eurozone data and Fed anticipation, while the pound remained weak on cautious central bank remarks and lack of domestic drivers. The yen gained modestly as Treasury yields declined, though trade tensions and tariff risks capped further strength. The franc struggled as safe-haven demand eased despite global uncertainty. Gold extended gains, supported by soft dollar sentiment and expectations of eventual Fed rate cuts, though upside was limited by looming resistance and mixed Fed outlooks.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- EUR/USD remains range-bound after testing 1.1729 multiple times with weak bullish momentum.
- German CPI data came in line with expectations, offering no surprises and keeping euro volatility subdued.
- Fed minutes suggest rate cuts remain a possibility for 2025, but opinions within the FOMC remain split.
- US jobless claims and speeches by FOMC members Daly and Waller are key upcoming events.
Key Factors:
- Market pricing in dovish shift by Fed later in the year.
- Inflationary pressure from tariffs may be temporary.
- Market positioning is cautious ahead of new US data.
Forecast:
- Consolidation likely unless jobless claims surprise significantly.
- A weak US labor report could support EUR upside.
- Hawkish Fed tone could push EUR/USD downward.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 1.1686, 1.1651, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
- Resistance levels: 1.1762, 1.1810, 1.1913
- Bias: Neutral to bullish as long as above 1.1686
- Break below 1.1686: Renewed bearish pressure likely
- Sustained break above 1.1762: Continuation toward 1.1810
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- GBP/USD trades narrowly around 1.3587 after failing to gain momentum from BoE speakers.
- Lack of impactful UK economic data has kept the pair subdued.
- Fed commentary remains the key driver of dollar sentiment.
Key Factors:
- UK economic uncertainty persists amid mixed signals from BoE.
- Global market focus is shifting toward US labor health and FOMC tone.
- Financial Policy Committee highlighted persistent external risks (geopolitical, trade, financial market fragmentation).
Forecast:
- Upside limited unless FOMC delivers a dovish surprise.
- Sterling vulnerable to stronger-than-expected US data.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
- Resistance levels: 1.3646, 1.3680, 1.3712, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000
- Bias: Bearish under 1.3680, short-term recovery possible above 1.3646
- Break above 1.3680: Triggers bullish extension
- Break below 1.3509: Deepens selling toward 1.3450 and 1.3388
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Market Context:
- USD/JPY retraced from 146.55 after testing resistance near 146.41 twice.
- U.S. yields declined, and global risk sentiment shifted due to fresh tariff announcements.
- Japan faces direct trade pressure as Trump’s 25% tariff on Japanese goods looms.
Key Factors:
- Weaker dollar due to falling Treasury yields.
- Trade war escalation with Japan and Brazil adds risk aversion.
- US data and Fed speeches will shape near-term trend.
Forecast:
- Volatility expected if jobless claims or Fed comments surprise.
- JPY may strengthen further if risk-off sentiment intensifies.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 145.88, 145.28, 144.18
- Resistance levels: 146.51, 147.15, 148.28
- Bias: Bullish above 145.88, cautious below
- Break below 145.88: Could trigger move to 145.28
- Break above 146.51: Opens path toward 147.15
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc
Market Context:
- USD/CHF stalled below 0.8000 after a failed rebound attempt from multi-month lows.
- Risk-on sentiment due to strong US equity markets undermines CHF as a safe haven.
- Trump’s tariff escalation and unclear Fed policy path add pressure to USD.
Key Factors:
- FOMC minutes leave door open for rate cuts; lack of clarity keeps USD capped.
- Swiss franc demand soft due to rising risk appetite.
- Ongoing trade war rhetoric raises uncertainty.
Forecast:
- Mild downside bias unless Fed surprises with hawkish shift.
- CHF strength may return if risk sentiment deteriorates.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 0.7924, 0.7910, 0.7884
- Resistance levels: 0.7964, 0.7990
- Bias: Bearish under 0.7964
- Break below 0.7924: Confirms downside continuation
- Break above 0.7990: Would invalidate short-term bearish bias
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- Gold continues to rise for a second day as the USD weakens and Treasury yields fall.
- Safe-haven appeal is renewed amid global trade tensions.
- Markets expect Fed to cut rates later in the year, supporting non-yielding assets like gold.
Key Factors:
- Trump’s trade war stance boosts gold’s haven demand.
- Fed rate cut expectations and falling yields drive inflows into gold.
- FOMC minutes hint at future policy easing, keeping gold in favor.
Forecast:
- Further gains likely if Fed commentary reinforces easing bias.
- Watch jobless claims and 10-year yields for short-term direction.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 3306, 3291, 3274
- Resistance levels: 3329, 3345, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
- Bias: Bullish above 3329
- Break above 3357: Signals further upside toward 3393 and 3405
- Break below 3300: Reopens downside toward 3274
📊 Summary Table: As of July 11, 2025
| Pair | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Key Factors Driving Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral-Bullish | 1.1686, 1.1651, 1.1581 | 1.1762, 1.1810, 1.1913 | Fed minutes, CPI, Jobless Claims |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3509, 1.3450, 1.3388 | 1.3646, 1.3680, 1.3752 | BoE indecision, US data |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 145.88, 145.28, 144.18 | 146.51, 147.15, 148.28 | US-Japan trade, risk sentiment |
| 🇨🇭 USD/CHF | Bearish | 0.7924, 0.7910, 0.7884 | 0.7964, 0.7990 | Fed outlook, global trade risks |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3306, 3291, 3274 | 3329, 3345, 3357, 3405 | Rate cut bets, risk aversion |
Categories: Market News
