The euro remains range-bound amid calm Eurozone data and focus on US policy, while the pound struggles below recent highs due to trade risks and financial uncertainty. The yen finds support from cautious optimism despite new tariffs, as traders eye further rate moves. The Australian dollar holds steady on weak China data and uncertain RBA outlook. Gold slides on tariff threats and muted Fed expectations, with sellers dominating as traders wait for clear signals.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- Consolidation due to lack of fresh data from the Eurozone.
- Focus on US Fed minutes; expected muted reaction as market adjusts to Fed’s cautious tone.
- EU and US trade talks ongoing; possible retaliatory EU tariffs if no deal is reached.
- Market remains cautious ahead of stronger economic data later this week.
Technical Outlook
- Price tested 1.1726 but faced resistance.
- Range-bound with potential for breakout depending on news catalysts.
- Selling pressure building; market tested reversal levels twice with weakening rebounds.
Support Levels
- 1.1686
- 1.1651
- 1.1642
- 1.1581
- 1.1518
Resistance Levels
- 1.1762
- 1.1810
- 1.1913
Forecast
- Neutral to Bearish Bias: Unless price breaks and holds above 1.1762, risk leans to downside.
- Strong breakout above 1.1762 could initiate limited upside toward 1.1810.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- Pound declined amid US dollar strength and UK’s fragile industrial outlook.
- UK negotiating with US to avoid steel tariff hikes up to 50%.
- Fed minutes in focus; likely to reiterate cautious stance.
- Broader risk-off sentiment weighs due to global tariff tension.
Technical Outlook
- Tested 1.3590 but failed to break higher.
- Price consolidated below key moving averages; trend turning negative.
- Downward momentum remains with limited upside catalysts.
Support Levels
- 1.3509
- 1.3471
- 1.3450
- 1.3388
Resistance Levels
- 1.3596
- 1.3646
- 1.3680
- 1.3712
- 1.3752
- 1.3770
- 1.4000
Forecast
- Bearish Bias: Continued selling expected unless price breaks above 1.3680.
- Next downside target near 1.3545; short bounces possible but limited upside follow-through.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors
- Dollar demand softening; yen sees some safe haven appeal amid tariff concerns.
- US–Japan trade talks in spotlight; Trump confirms 25% tariffs effective August 1.
- Bank of Japan maintains hawkish tone, supporting JPY modestly.
- Fed minutes may stir modest movement but not expected to shock markets.
Technical Outlook
- Recent rejection at 147.15 resistance.
- Price remains in broader uptrend but faces correction risk from overbought conditions.
- Demand reappears near 146.51, acting as key support.
Support Levels
- 146.51
- 145.88
- 145.28
- 144.18
Resistance Levels
- 147.15
- 148.28
Forecast
- Moderately Bullish Bias: Consolidation above 146.51 favors continued upside toward 147.15 and 148.28.
- Watch for reversal signals near key resistance if tariff developments escalate.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- Flat performance after weak inflation data from China.
- China’s CPI and PPI remain soft, weighing on AUD via trade linkage.
- RBA remains cautious; rate cut expectations rising ahead of August meeting.
- Uncertainty from Trump’s tariff delay until August 1 contributes to market caution.
Technical Outlook
- Price struggling to break above 0.6535 resistance.
- Bullish bias intact but momentum weak and capped by lack of positive catalysts.
- Downside risk if price breaks below 0.6500 psychological level.
Support Levels
- 0.6519
- 0.6508
- 0.6400
- 0.6372
Resistance Levels
- 0.6535 (EMA)
- 0.6543
- 0.6590
- 0.6600
Forecast
- Neutral to Slightly Bullish Bias: Needs clean break above 0.6535 for bullish continuation.
- Below 0.6500 opens deeper pullback toward 0.6400.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- Gold fell as Fed’s neutral tone dampened safe-haven demand.
- Trump’s tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals weigh on broader metals market.
- Investors await Fed minutes, though dovish signals may not strongly support gold unless rate cut tone increases.
Technical Outlook
- Trend remains downward; price weak after break below 3339.
- Limited buying interest; next downside zone seen near 3274.
- Resistance levels heavy; momentum indicators suggest further downside unless a reversal forms.
Support Levels
- 3301
- 3274
- 3246
Resistance Levels
- 3342
- 3357
- 3393
- 3405
- 3444
- 3500
Forecast
- Bearish Bias: Pressure remains below 3342; watch 3274 for possible bounce.
- Sustained break above 3357 would shift outlook to neutral short-term.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 10, 2025
| Pair | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral/Bearish | 1.1686, 1.1651 | 1.1762, 1.1810 | Fed minutes, EU-US tariffs, lack of EZ data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3509, 1.3450 | 1.3596, 1.3646 | UK steel tariffs, Fed outlook, risk sentiment |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Moderately Bullish | 146.51, 145.28 | 147.15, 148.28 | Japan trade talks, BoJ stance, Fed policy cues |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Neutral/Bullish | 0.6500, 0.6400 | 0.6535, 0.6590 | China inflation, RBA rate outlook, US-China trade |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish | 3301, 3274 | 3342, 3357 | Fed minutes, tariff impact on metals, weak demand |
Categories: Market News
