The euro weakened amid concerns over the eurozone’s economic outlook, while the pound struggled under flat UK growth and weak investment. The yen gained slightly as dollar sentiment softened, driven by trade uncertainties and cautious Fed outlook. The Swiss franc held firm near multi-year highs as dollar weakness persisted, despite hints of policy intervention. The Canadian dollar showed resilience amid renewed trade talks with the US, though movement stayed limited within a narrow range. Gold remained under pressure but found tentative support near key levels as rate cut hopes linger.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- Weak German retail sales increased fears of a Eurozone slowdown.
- Despite this, the euro rose slightly due to stronger-than-expected French CPI and rising German bond yields.
- Hawkish ECB sentiment persists, with markets assigning a low probability to a July rate cut.
- Light U.S. economic calendar leaves the euro vulnerable to unexpected Fed commentary.
- Tariff-related uncertainty and weak Eurozone data cap bullish potential.
Forecast:
- Bullish bias remains as long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1694.
- Upside likely if risk sentiment weakens the USD further or if European data surprises positively.
Support Levels: 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518, 1.1471, 1.1445
Resistance Level: 1.1913
Outlook: Buy from dips above 1.1642 toward 1.1795–1.1913; downside resumes below 1.1589.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- Q1 GDP revision flat; no positive surprise in UK data.
- Sharp drop in investment signals weak economic momentum and reduced business confidence.
- GBP remains supported by weaker USD, but lacks strong domestic catalysts.
- Eyes on U.S. data and Fed commentary for direction.
- Stronger inflation outlook or hawkish Fed commentary could weigh on GBP.
Forecast:
- Mildly bullish outlook while price holds above 1.3698.
- Consolidation expected unless there is strong U.S. economic divergence.
Support Levels: 1.3698, 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471
Resistance Levels: 1.3748, 1.4000
Outlook: Buy above 1.3698 toward 1.3799–1.4000; selling resumes on break below 1.3470.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- USD/JPY testing resistance at 144.96 amid weak USD and soft Fed outlook.
- Yen gained modestly as Japanese industrial production slowed less than expected.
- Fed dovishness and risk-off sentiment continue to support yen strength.
- Market attention remains on upcoming U.S. labor data and Fed speakers.
Forecast:
- Bearish bias remains below 144.96.
- Break below 143.57 could trigger renewed yen strength.
Support Levels: 143.64, 143.37
Resistance Levels: 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28
Outlook: Sell below 144.96 toward 143.57; buy only on a confirmed breakout above 145.95.
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- USD/CHF trades at 14-year lows as U.S. dollar extends losses.
- Swiss National Bank comments hint at possible interventions but have yet to materialize.
- Bearish sentiment driven by weak U.S. economic indicators, Fed rate cut expectations, and debt concerns.
- Technical oversold conditions suggest possible short-term bounce.
Forecast:
- Bearish bias intact unless price reverses sharply from oversold support zone.
Support Levels: 0.7970, 0.7920
Resistance Levels: 0.8240, 0.8290
Outlook: Avoid selling; consider buying if price confirms reversal above 0.7970 toward 0.8240.
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- USD/CAD range-bound amid US-Canada trade headlines and low-volume trading.
- Trump’s policy unpredictability keeps markets cautious.
- Canadian data-light week; U.S. labor reports may drive direction.
- Price is testing prior support at 1.3620; a break lower could extend weakness.
Forecast:
- Rangebound to bearish outlook in near-term.
- Stronger CAD if U.S. data disappoints or oil prices rebound.
Support Levels: 1.3640, 1.3590, 1.3540
Resistance Levels: 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3850
Outlook: Watch 1.3620 for breakdown; buy only after confirmed reversal above 1.3590.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Market Drivers & Analysis:
- Gold weakened due to improving global trade sentiment and reduced geopolitical risk.
- U.S. data shows steady inflation; Fed rate cut expectations remain.
- Gold remains in corrective pattern within broader bullish structure.
- Traders watching support at 3246 for rebound signal.
Forecast:
- Bias is cautiously bullish near support.
- A break above 3350 signals return of upside momentum.
Support Levels: 3246, 3240
Resistance Levels: 3301, 3350, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
Outlook: Buy above 3246 toward 3350–3405; downside resumes if 3240 is broken.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 1, 2025
| Pair | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Outlook Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.1581 / 1.1642 | 1.1795 / 1.1913 | Buy dips; downside resumes if below 1.1589 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Mild Bullish | 1.3698 / 1.3591 | 1.3799 / 1.4000 | Bullish above 1.3698; sell pressure returns below 1.3470 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish | 143.57 / 143.37 | 144.96 / 145.95 | Sell below resistance; rebound above 145.95 needed for bullish reversal |
| 🇨🇭 USD/CHF | Bearish | 0.7970 / 0.7920 | 0.8240 / 0.8290 | Oversold zone; wait for reversal to consider buying |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Rangebound | 1.3590 / 1.3540 | 1.3740 / 1.3800 | Bearish bias while below 1.3740; watch 1.3620 for breakdown |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish Bias | 3246 / 3240 | 3350 / 3405 | Buy from support zones; breakout above 3350 confirms uptrend resumption |
