The euro declined due to weak economic data, with traders awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech for monetary policy insights. The British pound also fell as investors reacted to potential U.S. trade tariffs and Fed rate decisions. The Japanese yen faced selling pressure amid expectations of a stable Fed stance, while the Bank of Japan maintained a cautious approach to policy adjustments. Gold prices edged higher on safe-haven demand but showed signs of exhaustion, with potential declines if key support levels break. Global markets remain focused on central bank actions and economic uncertainties.
EUR/USD
The euro remains under pressure amid weak economic data from Germany and the eurozone. Market participants are awaiting insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future U.S. monetary policy, which will significantly influence the euro’s direction. The key drivers for the EUR/USD pair are expectations around U.S. interest rates, economic stability, and trade policy uncertainty.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.0436, 1.0410, 1.0372, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
- Resistance: 1.0456, 1.0516, 1.0537
The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bullish, but price action is constrained within a tight range. If the price consolidates above 1.0456, a move towards 1.0516 is likely. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.0372 would signal a continuation of the downtrend.
Forecast: EUR/USD is expected to trade within the 1.0380–1.0510 range in the near term. A dovish Fed stance could push the pair toward the higher end, while continued economic weakness in Europe might lead to further downside.
GBP/USD
The British pound has been affected by concerns over U.S. trade policy and the Bank of England’s potential rate cuts. While recent PMI data exceeded expectations, monetary policy decisions will play a pivotal role in the pound’s trajectory. If the Fed maintains a restrictive stance, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, pushing GBP/USD lower.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.2425, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270, 1.2229, 1.2158
- Resistance: 1.2465, 1.2494
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend, but the price is approaching key resistance at 1.2465. If buyers fail to break this level, a retracement to 1.2400 is likely. A breakout above 1.2494 could pave the way for further gains.
Forecast: The pair is expected to trade between 1.2290 and 1.2490 in the short term. A hawkish Fed stance may lead to further downside, while BoE policy shifts could provide upward momentum.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan cautiously assesses inflation and wage growth. Despite recent upward revisions to inflation estimates, the BOJ has not signaled a shift toward aggressive monetary tightening. The yen’s movement will largely depend on global risk sentiment and U.S. monetary policy developments.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 154.93, 154.34, 153.80
- Resistance: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19
Technically, USD/JPY’s medium-term trend remains bearish. The key resistance level of 156.02 is crucial; a failure to break above this level may lead to renewed selling pressure. Conversely, a breakdown below 154.93 could accelerate the decline.
Forecast: USD/JPY is expected to trade within the 154.00–157.00 range. A dovish Fed might push the yen higher, while any signs of U.S. economic resilience could drive the dollar upward.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold prices have remained resilient amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and global economic conditions. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, as higher rates typically reduce gold’s appeal.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 2752, 2735, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
- Resistance: 2772, 2790, 2812
The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but the price faces resistance at 2772. If this level is breached, a move toward 2790 is possible. Conversely, a break below 2735 could signal a reversal to the downside.
Forecast: Gold is expected to trade between 2700 and 2790 in the short term. A hawkish Fed may push prices lower, while continued trade uncertainty could bolster demand for the metal.
Conclusion:
- EUR/USD: Likely range: 1.0380–1.0510. A dovish Fed could push the euro higher.
- GBP/USD: Expected range: 1.2290–1.2490. BoE decisions will be critical.
- USD/JPY: Trading range: 154.00–157.00. Yen weakness could persist unless the BOJ tightens policy.
- Gold: Projected range: 2700–2790. Trade policy uncertainty may support gold prices.
Market participants should closely monitor central bank statements and economic data releases, as they will significantly impact price movements in these major assets.
