The euro shows hesitation, reflecting muted reactions to regional data and a broader wait and see mood ahead of key global developments. The pound holds relatively firmer ground, supported by resilient domestic conditions, though uncertainty still limits upside enthusiasm. The yen stays under pressure as policy expectations and political signals continue to favor a weaker currency tone. Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after heavy volatility, with confidence fragile as investors assess risk appetite and recent drawdowns. Gold, after a sharp correction, seeks direction as profit taking competes with renewed interest tied to long term monetary and fiscal concerns, keeping price action sensitive and reactive.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Tone
- The euro remains under pressure as the US dollar continues to benefit from relatively stronger labor market signals and resilient economic sentiment.
- Recent Eurozone data has been mixed. While manufacturing activity showed a slight improvement, inflation pressures in France eased sharply, and rising unemployment claims in Spain highlighted growing economic fragility.
- The lack of a strong market reaction to European data suggests traders are cautious and positioning ahead of key US labor and sentiment releases.
Key Fundamental Drivers
- US labor market strength continues to influence rate expectations, keeping the dollar supported.
- Eurozone growth concerns and soft inflation data limit upside momentum for the euro.
- Market participants are largely in a wait-and-see mode, reducing aggressive buying interest.
Technical Structure & Price Behavior
- The pair remains capped below key resistance zones, with buying interest appearing weak on rebounds.
- Sellers continue to dominate rallies, indicating a bearish bias in the near term.
Support Levels
- 1.1754
- 1.1745
Resistance Levels
- 1.1835
- 1.1874
- 1.1953
Trading Recommendations
- Prefer sell positions on rallies near 1.1835–1.1874 if price shows hesitation.
- Downside targets remain focused on the 1.1754 area.
- Long positions should be considered only after a clear break and hold above 1.1874, which would signal renewed buyer strength.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Tone
- The British pound has shown better resilience compared to the euro, supported by relatively strong domestic data and persistent inflation pressures.
- Markets are cautiously positioned ahead of the Bank of England’s policy outlook, with reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts.
- Short-term moves remain sensitive to US data and central bank commentary.
Key Fundamental Drivers
- UK inflation remains elevated, encouraging a more patient stance from policymakers.
- Business activity indicators suggest improving momentum in the UK economy.
- Dollar strength still acts as a counterweight to sustained upside in GBP/USD.
Technical Structure & Price Behavior
- Buyers defended the lower support zone, triggering a modest rebound.
- Price action suggests consolidation rather than a strong directional move for now.
Support Levels
- 1.3643
- 1.3568
Resistance Levels
- 1.3710
- 1.3737
- 1.3787
Trading Recommendations
- Look for short opportunities near 1.3710–1.3737 if price struggles to break higher.
- A confirmed move above 1.3737 would shift bias back toward upside continuation.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Market Tone
- The yen remains weak as strong US data and firm policy expectations continue to favor the dollar.
- Political developments in Japan suggest tolerance for a weaker currency, especially to support exporters.
- Ongoing election uncertainty and expansionary fiscal expectations add further pressure to the yen.
Key Fundamental Drivers
- US rate expectations remain the dominant driver of USD/JPY.
- Japan’s accommodative policy stance limits yen recovery.
- Market sensitivity remains high to US labor data and central bank rhetoric.
Technical Structure & Price Behavior
- Price is testing a critical resistance zone, where reactions will define near-term direction.
- A clean break higher could accelerate upside momentum.
Support Levels
- 154.57
- 154.17
- 153.71
Resistance Levels
- 155.62
- 157.50
Trading Recommendations
- Consider selling near 155.62 only if price shows clear rejection.
- Buy setups become more attractive on a confirmed breakout above 155.62, targeting higher levels.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Current Market Tone
- Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective phase despite recent rebounds.
- A significant portion of holders are currently underwater, increasing the risk of additional selling pressure.
- The lack of strong correlation with traditional defensive assets suggests hesitation among institutional participants.
Key Market Drivers
- ETF-related positioning and profit-loss dynamics continue to influence price swings.
- Psychological levels play a major role, as traders react sharply to breaks of key zones.
- Recovery attempts remain fragile unless sustained consolidation develops.
Support Levels
- 75,100
- 72,100
- 56,000–58,000 (major long-term zone)
Resistance Levels
- 80,200
- 83,100
- 85,600
- 87,900
Trading Recommendations
- Maintain a cautiously bullish bias above 75,000, viewing pullbacks as potential long opportunities.
- Upside targets remain focused on 81,000 and 86,000.
- A decisive break below 75,000 would shift focus toward deeper downside levels.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Tone
- Gold experienced a sharp correction following a prolonged rally, driven by stronger dollar sentiment and profit-taking.
- Despite the pullback, longer-term demand from central banks and asset diversification flows remains supportive.
- Volatility is elevated as traders reassess interest rate expectations.
Key Fundamental Drivers
- US dollar strength continues to weigh on gold prices.
- Shifts in policy leadership and expectations have increased short-term uncertainty.
- Structural demand for physical gold remains intact.
Support Levels
- 4745
- 4605
- 4400
Resistance Levels
- 4948
- 5051
- 5145
Trading Recommendations
- Consider buying above 4745 with an initial target near 4948.
- Watch price behavior closely in the 4948–5051 zone for potential reversal signals.
📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of February 4, 2026
| Asset | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Preferred Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1754 | 1.1835 | Sell on rallies |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral | 1.3643 | 1.3737 | Range trades |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Neutral-Bullish | 154.57 | 155.62 | Buy breakouts |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Cautious Bullish | 75,000 | 81,000 | Buy pullbacks |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Volatile | 4745 | 4948 | Buy dips |
