The euro remains under pressure as economic stagnation in Europe limits upside potential, while the dollar remains resilient ahead of key US data. The pound is consolidating within a narrow range, with traders awaiting policy signals from the Federal Reserve. The yen is influenced by expectations of monetary tightening in Japan, while US policy decisions could drive volatility. The Canadian dollar benefits from rising oil prices, but trade uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Gold struggles to maintain momentum, with sellers capping gains as technical exhaustion signals a potential short-term pullback.
EUR/USD
Market Overview
The euro has been under pressure due to stagnant economic conditions in the Eurozone. Inflation in January 2025 was confirmed at 2.5%, marking the highest rate since mid-2024. Rising energy prices and stagnant core inflation at 2.7% have weighed on economic sentiment.
Despite support near 1.0460, selling pressure remains dominant, especially with resistance forming near 1.0485. The currency pair has been struggling to break out of its consolidation range, suggesting further downside risk unless there is a significant fundamental shift.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.0460, 1.0449, 1.0409
- Resistance: 1.0485, 1.0537
Forecast
If the euro consolidates below 1.0460, further declines toward 1.0409 could materialize. A potential reversal could be seen if the price establishes support at 1.0460 and breaches 1.0485, paving the way for an upward move toward 1.0537. However, the current trend remains bearish.
GBP/USD
Market Overview
The British pound remains volatile, influenced by ongoing discussions about tariffs and the potential for rate cuts in the UK. The UK interest rate is projected to be 4.50% by the end of Q1 2025, with further reductions anticipated in the long term. Global expectations suggest the pound could weaken toward 1.23 in the coming months.
The pair is currently oscillating within a narrow range, with strong support at 1.2632 and resistance near 1.2655. A breakout in either direction will determine the next trend direction.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.2632, 1.2581, 1.2553
- Resistance: 1.2655, 1.2704
Forecast
A break below 1.2632 could push the pair toward 1.2581, reinforcing the downtrend. If the pound consolidates above 1.2655, a move toward 1.2704 is likely. However, the broader outlook remains cautious as economic uncertainty and potential rate cuts continue to weigh on the currency.
USD/JPY
Market Overview
The Japanese yen has been supported by expectations of a continued tightening stance from the Bank of Japan, particularly following a rise in Q4 2024 inflation. However, the US dollar remains resilient, leading to fluctuating movements in the pair.
The current price action suggests strong resistance at 150.31, where sellers have repeatedly stepped in, while support is forming near 149.34.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 149.34, 148.91
- Resistance: 150.31, 150.75, 151.50, 152.32
Forecast
If the price breaks below 149.34, further declines toward 148.91 could follow, strengthening the bearish trend. A break above 150.31 could lead to gains toward 150.75 and beyond. The medium-term trend remains bearish unless the pair breaches key resistance zones.
USD/CAD
Market Overview
USD/CAD has been reacting to tariff-related developments and key economic data releases. Recent US dollar strength has supported the pair, but Canadian inflation and oil price recovery have provided counteracting forces.
The pair has remained range-bound, with resistance forming near 1.4310 and support near 1.4172. If tariffs proceed as planned, they could weigh on the Canadian dollar and drive USD/CAD higher.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.4172, 1.4000, 1.3956
- Resistance: 1.4310, 1.4500, 1.4594
Forecast
A close above 1.4310 would signal a shift toward a bullish structure, with potential gains toward 1.4500. If support at 1.4172 holds, the pair could remain range-bound, but a break below this level may push it toward 1.4000.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Market Overview
Gold has shown exhaustion near the $2,955 level, suggesting a possible technical correction. A triple-top pattern has emerged, indicating potential downward pressure if gold fails to consolidate above $2,945.
A break below $2,930 could accelerate declines toward $2,920, while a move above $2,945 would signal a potential retest of $2,968.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: $2,929, $2,920, $2,890
- Resistance: $2,945, $2,955, $2,968
Forecast
If gold fails to hold above $2,945, a decline toward $2,929 is likely. A deeper correction could take it toward $2,920. However, if it stabilizes above $2,945, further upside potential exists toward $2,955 and $2,968. The broader outlook remains dependent on market risk sentiment and US economic data.
Conclusion
EUR/USD: Bearish bias unless the price consolidates above 1.0485.
GBP/USD: Bullish potential if the price clears 1.2655, but downside risk remains.
USD/JPY: Bearish bias below 149.34, with resistance at 150.31 limiting gains.
USD/CAD: Consolidation phase, with resistance at 1.4310 as a key level to watch.
Gold: Signs of exhaustion, with the potential for further downside toward 2,920.
