The euro remains under pressure amid expectations of rate cuts by the ECB, while geopolitical risks and energy trends continue to shape its trajectory. The British pound holds firm, buoyed by inflation data exceeding forecasts, limiting the Bank of England’s scope for aggressive rate cuts. The Japanese yen strengthens as trade tensions and global uncertainties drive demand for safe-haven assets, with a bearish medium-term trend persisting. Gold surges to record highs, fueled by fears of an economic slowdown and shifting Fed policy expectations, reinforcing its status as a preferred hedge against inflation and volatility.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair has been trading around the 1.0430–1.0444 range, reflecting a bearish short-term trend with potential for medium-term reversals. The European Central Bank’s anticipated rate cuts, combined with reduced inflationary pressure from lower energy prices, suggest a cautious approach to the euro’s valuation.
Market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, including defense spending shifts and U.S. tariff adjustments. The ECB is expected to lower the deposit rate incrementally, which could weigh on the euro.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
- Resistance: 1.0444, 1.0510, 1.0537
If EUR/USD remains below 1.0444, selling opportunities targeting 1.0390 remain viable. A break above 1.0444 could indicate potential for upward movement, with buying opportunities emerging should price action stabilize above this level. A significant decline below 1.0373 may reinforce bearish momentum.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair has shown resilience around 1.2600, bolstered by unexpected inflationary pressures in the UK. The inflation rate at 3%, exceeding expectations, suggests a slower pace of monetary easing by the Bank of England. This supports a more stable pound despite global economic headwinds.
Technical indicators point to bullish momentum, with the British pound outperforming the euro. However, strong intraday selling pressure indicates potential pullbacks. The sustainability of this trend depends on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
- Resistance: 1.2606, 1.2614, 1.2667
A break above 1.2606 may support further gains, while sustained pressure below this level increases the likelihood of declines toward 1.2555. Should the price breach 1.2452, bearish momentum could dominate in the medium term.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY has faced notable volatility, with the pair reaching 150.00 amid safe-haven demand for the yen. The yen’s strength stems from geopolitical risks, including U.S. tariff policies and global trade uncertainties. The Bank of Japan’s policy stance remains a key driver for the yen’s direction.
Despite recent declines, bullish potential remains if support levels hold. U.S. economic indicators and FOMC statements will provide further direction.
Key Levels:
- Support: 150.34, 149.42
- Resistance: 151.25, 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52
A breakdown below 150.34 could lead to further yen strength, whereas a recovery above 152.31 may restore bullish sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold continues to reach new all-time highs, recently surpassing $2,950 per ounce. Concerns over inflation, trade policy shifts, and economic uncertainty support strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts further fuels gold’s upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with the absence of significant selling pressure at higher levels reinforcing its potential for continued growth. A break above $2,950 could lead to further gains towards the psychological $3,000 mark.
Key Levels:
- Support: 2,930, 2,918, 2,900, 2,880, 2,860, 2,855, 2,834, 2,815, 2,800
- Resistance: 2,950, 3,000
A drop below $2,900 could trigger corrective movements, but the overall outlook remains bullish. Investors should monitor geopolitical events and Federal Reserve signals for further confirmation of market direction.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs show mixed trends, with EUR/USD facing bearish pressures while GBP/USD maintains relative strength. USD/JPY remains influenced by global risk sentiment, while gold continues its strong bullish trajectory. Market participants should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, to navigate potential trading opportunities.
Recommendations:
- EUR/USD: Bearish bias remains; watch for a break below 1.0373.
- GBP/USD: Bullish momentum continues, but a break below 1.2452 could shift sentiment.
- USD/JPY: Monitoring 150.34 support; upside potential above 152.31.
- Gold: Bullish trend remains strong; break above $2,950 signals further upside
