The euro and pound remain pressured as traders weigh softer domestic signals against steady demand for the dollar, while the yen drifts as markets balance policy expectations in Japan and the United States. Bitcoin struggles to regain strong upside momentum, with sentiment fragile amid corporate exposure and shifting capital flows. Gold, meanwhile, holds firm near record territory, supported by mixed central bank messaging and lingering uncertainty that keeps investors cautiously positioned.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
🔎Current Sentiment
- The euro remains under pressure as political uncertainty builds around Christine Lagarde and broader leadership concerns within the ECB.
- Inflation stability in the eurozone is limiting aggressive policy changes, keeping rate expectations steady.
- The U.S. dollar continues to gain support from resilient economic data.
Key Drivers
- U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing data
- Speeches from Fed officials (notably Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari)
- Eurozone political developments
- Interest rate expectations between ECB and Fed
Technical Structure
- Trend: Bearish bias
- Price holding below key resistance, indicating seller control
Key Levels
- Supports: 1.1766, 1.1754, 1.1726
- Resistances: 1.1805, 1.1850, 1.1894
Trading Strategy
- Prefer sell positions near 1.1805 with downside targets toward 1.1766
- Avoid aggressive buying unless weak U.S. data shifts momentum
- Look for continuation if support breaks cleanly
Forecast
Likely to remain under pressure with gradual downside continuation unless U.S. data disappoints
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment
- The pound is weakening due to cooling inflation and a softening labor market.
- Expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England are increasing.
Key Drivers
- UK inflation slowdown and rising unemployment
- U.S. economic releases
- Market pricing of upcoming rate cuts
Technical Structure
- Trend: Bearish but prone to short-term rebounds
- Price reacting strongly around key resistance zones
Key Levels
- Supports: 1.3505, 1.3456, 1.3426
- Resistances: 1.3505, 1.3558, 1.3582
Trading Strategy
- Sell near 1.3505 resistance if rejection forms
- Buy only on confirmed breakout above 1.3505 targeting 1.3558
- Watch for volatility around U.S. data releases
Forecast
Downward pressure likely to persist, with occasional corrective bounces
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Sentiment
- The yen is weakening as the dollar remains supported by strong U.S. fundamentals.
- However, expectations of tightening by the Bank of Japan are slowly building.
Key Drivers
- U.S. labor market data
- Fed commentary
- Japan’s monetary policy outlook and economic reforms
Technical Structure
- Trend: Bullish (USD strength)
- Breakout from consolidation suggests continuation potential
Key Levels
- Supports: 154.62, 153.67, 152.61
- Resistances: 155.64, 156.27
Trading Strategy
- Buy on pullbacks toward 154.62 support
- Target continuation toward 155.64
- Avoid chasing highs near resistance without confirmation
Forecast
Uptrend remains intact unless U.S. data weakens significantly
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Current Sentiment
- Market remains bearish overall despite occasional short-term recoveries.
- Institutional concerns tied to MicroStrategy are weighing on sentiment.
Key Drivers
- Institutional positioning and leverage risks
- Capital rotation from altcoins back into Bitcoin
- Broader risk sentiment in global markets
Technical Structure
- Trend: Strong downtrend
- Weak bullish attempts, mostly corrective
Key Levels
- Supports: 66,400; 64,400; 62,600
- Resistances: 68,900; 70,600; 74,600
Trading Strategy
- Prefer selling rallies rather than buying dips
- Watch 66,400 as key short-term support
- Only consider bullish positions if price sustains above 70,600
Forecast
Continued downside risk with potential for deeper correction before recovery
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment
- Gold remains supported by uncertainty around monetary policy following signals from the Federal Reserve.
- Mixed expectations on rate direction are keeping demand elevated.
Key Drivers
- FOMC outlook and interest rate expectations
- Inflation trajectory
- Market positioning amid global uncertainty
Technical Structure
- Trend: Bullish with potential short-term pullbacks
- Strong upward momentum with consolidation phases
Key Levels
- Supports: 4960, 4907, 4842
- Resistances: 5044, 5086, 5145
Trading Strategy
- Buy on pullbacks toward 4960–4907 zone
- Watch reaction at 5044 for potential rejection
- Avoid aggressive selling unless clear reversal forms
Forecast
Bullish bias remains, with some dips.
📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of February 20, 2026
| Asset | Trend Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Strategy Focus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1766 | 1.1805 | Sell rallies |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3505 | 1.3505–1.3558 | Sell resistance / breakout buy |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 154.62 | 155.64 | Buy pullbacks |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Bearish | 66,400 | 68,900 | Sell rallies |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 4960 | 5044 | Buy dips |
