The tone across major markets remains cautious as the dollar steadies on firm policy signals. EUR/USD drifts within a tight range after muted euro area data, while GBP/USD struggles under softer labor trends despite lingering inflation pressure. USD/JPY holds elevated ground as traders weigh steady US policy against mixed Japanese growth signals. Bitcoin remains fragile amid talk of regulation and global rivalry, and XAU/USD steadies as investors await clearer direction from upcoming US data and policy commentary.

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

🔎 Fundamental Drivers

• Weak German ZEW expectations weighed on sentiment.
• French inflation met expectations — no surprise catalyst.
• Market sees minimal probability of near-term ECB easing.
• Dollar strength driven by:
  • Fed’s cautious tone
  • Persistent services inflation
  • Strong industrial signals
• Fed minutes remain the key short-term catalyst.

📊 Technical Structure

• Short-term tone: Neutral to mildly positive above support.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.1805
  • 1.1777
  • 1.1754
  • 1.1726
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.1850
  • 1.1894
  • 1.1955
  • 1.2050

🎯 Trading Plan

• Buy on dips near 1.1805 with targets toward 1.1894.
• Sell rejection near 1.1894 if U.S. data surprises positively.
• Break above 1.1894 opens path toward 1.1955.
• Break below 1.1805 shifts bias toward 1.1777.

Outlook: Range-bound with breakout potential after Fed guidance.

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

🔎 Fundamental Drivers

• UK inflation slightly firmer than expected.
• However:
  • Wage growth slowing.
  • Unemployment rising to highest since early 2021.
• Markets fully pricing rate cuts in coming months.
• BoE easing expectations weigh on pound.
• Dollar reaction to Fed minutes is decisive.

📊 Technical Structure

• Short-term tone: Bearish below 1.3606.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.3549
  • 1.3514
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.3606
  • 1.3670
  • 1.3697
  • 1.3732

🎯 Trading Plan

• Sell rallies toward 1.3606 with target 1.3514.
• Buy cautiously near 1.3549 for short-term rebounds.
• Break below 1.3514 accelerates downside.
• Sustained move above 1.3606 improves recovery outlook.

Outlook: Sellers remain dominant unless U.S. data disappoints.

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

🔎 Fundamental Drivers

• Strong Japanese exports (AI chip demand).
• Weak GDP limits aggressive tightening expectations.
• Market still anticipates possible BoJ normalization.
• Dollar strength offsets yen-positive trade data.
• U.S. yields remain primary directional force.

📊 Technical Structure

• Trading range:
  • Support: 152.61
  • Resistance: 153.67
• Broader Levels:
  • Support: 152.17 / 151.54
  • Resistance: 154.58 / 155.19

🎯 Trading Plan

• Sell near 153.67 if rejection appears.
• Buy breakout above 153.67 targeting 154.58.
• Break below 152.61 opens path toward 152.17.

Outlook: Range compression suggests imminent volatility expansion.

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₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin

🔎 Fundamental Drivers

• U.S.–China geopolitical competition in crypto narrative.
• Pro-crypto stance from U.S. officials.
• Institutional integration expanding gradually.
• However:
  • Broader risk appetite remains cautious.
  • Technical structure still reflects correction phase.
• Long-term structural adoption remains intact.

📊 Key Levels

• Resistance:
  • 68,900
  • 70,600
  • 71,125
  • 74,600
• Support:
  • 66,400
  • 64,400
  • 62,600
  • 57,500 (major downside zone)

🎯 Trading Plan

• Short-term buyers above 66,400 targeting 68,900.
• Break above 70,600 strengthens bullish recovery case.
• Drop below 66,400 increases risk toward 64,400.
• Failure below 62,600 exposes 57,500.

Outlook: Recovery possible, but broader structure remains fragile.

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🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

🔎 Fundamental Drivers

• Softer inflation supports rate-cut narrative.
• Strong employment reduces urgency for cuts.
• Fed minutes critical for direction.
• Reduced geopolitical tension limits upside acceleration.
• Equity market resilience caps defensive demand.

📊 Technical Structure

• Short-term bias: Bearish below resistance.
• Support Levels:
  • 4897
  • 4815
  • 4745
  • 4605
• Resistance Levels:
  • 4945
  • 4972
  • 5039
  • 5086
  • 5145

🎯 Trading Plan

• Sell near 4945–4972 resistance zone.
• Break above 4972 shifts bias toward 5039.
• Break below 4815 opens move toward 4745.
• Strong rebound above 5039 reactivates broader bullish momentum.

Outlook: Dollar direction and Fed tone remain decisive.

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📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of February 19, 2026

Asset	Trend Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Preferred Strategy
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	Neutral	1.1805	1.1894	Buy dips / Sell rejection
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	Bearish	1.3549	1.3606	Sell rallies
🇯🇵 USD/JPY	Range	152.61	153.67	Trade range breakout
₿ BTC/USD	Corrective	66,400	68,900	Tactical rebound trades
🪙 XAU/USD	Bearish intraday	4815	4945	Sell resistance

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