The tone across major markets remains cautious as the Euro struggles to build momentum despite softer inflation data, while the British Pound faces pressure from weakening labor conditions and slower wage growth. The Japanese Yen finds support on expectations of policy shifts in Japan, keeping dollar gains in check. Meanwhile, Bitcoin drifts lower after failing to sustain rallies, reflecting fragile risk appetite. Gold remains firm overall, with investors watching central bank signals and upcoming economic releases for clearer direction.

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

• Fundamental Drivers

• Germany’s CPI slowed to 2.1% YoY, fully priced in by markets, limiting euro reaction.
• Eurozone industrial production declined by 1.4%, reinforcing moderate growth concerns.
• U.S. inflation eased to 2.4%, strengthening expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Focus shifts to:
  • ADP Employment Change
  • Empire Manufacturing Index
  • Upcoming Fed minutes
• The medium-term bias slightly favors the euro as U.S. rate-cut expectations grow.

• Market Sentiment

• The pair is trading near the lower boundary of its consolidation range.
• Dollar direction depends heavily on incoming U.S. labor and manufacturing data.
• Weak U.S. data = upside potential.
• Strong U.S. data = renewed downside pressure.

• Key Support Levels

• 1.1836 (range floor, critical level)
• 1.1777
• 1.1754
• 1.1726

• Key Resistance Levels

• 1.1894
• 1.1955
• 1.2050
• 1.3000 (long-term)

• Trading Plan

Bullish Scenario

• Buy near 1.1836 if price holds firmly.
• Targets: 1.1894 → 1.1955.
• Stop below 1.1805.
• Stronger rally possible only on weak U.S. data.

Bearish Scenario

• Sell on confirmed break below 1.1836.
• Targets: 1.1777 → 1.1754.
• Short-term intraday sells preferred on strong U.S. figures.

• General Forecast

• Short-term: Neutral-to-slightly bullish above 1.1836.
• Medium-term: Gradual upside bias while Fed easing expectations remain intact.

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

• Fundamental Drivers

• UK unemployment rose to 5.2%, signaling labor market deterioration.
• Wage growth slowed, reducing real income strength.
• Inflation expected to ease toward 3.0%.
• Markets increasingly price in further Bank of England easing.
• U.S. data remains the main external driver.

• Market Sentiment

• Pound fluctuates near 1.36.
• Traders cautious ahead of UK inflation, labor, and retail sales data.
• Policy divergence between BoE and Fed will drive direction.

• Key Support Levels

• 1.3609 (critical)
• 1.3547
• 1.3514

• Key Resistance Levels

• 1.3670
• 1.3697
• 1.3732
• 1.3787
• 1.3871
• 1.4000

• Trading Plan

Bullish Scenario

• Buy from 1.3609 if buyers defend the level.
• Target: 1.3670 → 1.3732.
• Stop below 1.3580.

Bearish Scenario

• Sell on break below 1.3609.
• Targets: 1.3547 → 1.3514.
• Strong U.S. data would accelerate downside.

• General Forecast

• Short-term: Neutral with downside risks.
• Medium-term: Vulnerable unless UK data surprises positively.

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

• Fundamental Drivers

• Japanese yen strengthened amid speculation of an April rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
• Former board member Adachi hinted at tightening once sufficient data accumulates.
• Fed officials’ speeches crucial for rate expectations.
• Market currently expects U.S. rate cuts before summer.

• Market Sentiment

• Pair consolidating between 152.61–153.67.
• Liquidity taken above range highs triggered bearish reaction.
• Yen supported by tightening speculation.

• Key Support Levels

• 152.61
• 152.17
• 151.54

• Key Resistance Levels

• 153.67
• 153.83
• 154.58
• 155.19

• Trading Plan

Bearish Preference

• Sell near 153.67 resistance.
• Targets: 152.61 → 152.17.
• Stop above 154.00.

Bullish Alternative

• Buy only if strong rebound from 152.17.
• Target: 153.67.

• General Forecast

• Short-term: Bearish bias inside range.
• Medium-term: Downside risk increases if BoJ tightening expectations solidify.

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₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin

• Fundamental Drivers

• Trading below $70,000 psychological barrier.
• Investors rotating toward gold amid uncertainty.
• ECB discussions on euro stablecoins highlight regulatory evolution.
• Market sentiment cautious; bullish momentum fading.

• Key Support Levels

• $65,600
• $62,600
• $60,100

• Key Resistance Levels

• $68,900
• $72,100
• $74,600
• $77,300

• Trading Plan

Bearish Bias

• Sell rallies below $70,000.
• Target: $65,600 → $62,600.
• Break below $62,600 opens $60,100.

Bullish Recovery Scenario

• Buy only if sustained move above $72,100.
• Target: $74,600 → $77,300.

• General Forecast

• Short-term: Bearish below $70,000.
• Medium-term: Recovery possible only if risk appetite improves.

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🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

• Fundamental Drivers

• Trading below $5,000 psychological level.
• Awaiting Fed minutes, U.S. GDP, and PCE inflation.
• Asian holiday liquidity kept volatility subdued.
• Dollar direction key driver.

• Key Support Levels

• $4,897
• $4,815
• $4,745
• $4,605
• $4,400

• Key Resistance Levels

• $4,945
• $5,039
• $5,086
• $5,145
• $5,230

• Trading Plan

Bearish Scenario

• Sell below $4,986 zone.
• Target: $4,835 → $4,687.
• Momentum favors sellers unless $5,000 reclaimed.

Bullish Scenario

• Buy only on sustained consolidation above $5,000.
• Target: $5,086 → $5,145 → $5,230.

• General Forecast

• Short-term: Slight bearish bias below $5,000.
• Medium-term: Bullish potential if Fed signals easing.

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📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of February 18, 2026

Asset	Trend Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Trading Preference
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	Neutral → Bullish	1.1836	1.1894	Buy above 1.1836
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	Neutral	1.3609	1.3670	Buy if holds 1.3609
🇯🇵 USD/JPY	Bearish	152.61	153.67	Sell near resistance
₿ BTC/USD	Bearish	65,600	70,000	Sell rallies
🪙 XAU/USD	Slight Bearish	4,897	5,000	Sell below 5,000

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