The dominant driver across currencies and metals remains U.S. economic resilience, especially labor data, which continues to delay expectations for near-term policy easing from the Federal Reserve. Strong employment and stable consumption keep the U.S. dollar supported, forcing other assets into ranges rather than trends. Markets are increasingly sensitive to data surprises, not just headline numbers. Risk appetite is mixed: defensive positioning in FX, extreme pessimism in crypto, and cautious consolidation in gold

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Market Structure & Drivers

• The euro remains resilient but lacks strong independent momentum
• Recent stability is driven more by absence of bad news than by fresh bullish catalysts
• Comments from the European Central Bank have failed to shift expectations meaningfully
• U.S. job market strength continues to cap upside, as it reinforces a strong-dollar environment
• Housing and employment data from the U.S. are the primary short-term volatility triggers

Key Levels

• Support: 1.1833 → 1.1777 → 1.1754 → 1.1726
• Resistance: 1.1894 → 1.1955 → 1.2050

Trading Bias & Strategy

• Buyers must defend the 1.1830–1.1850 zone to prevent a deeper pullback
• Failure below 1.1830 opens room toward 1.1777
• Selling pressure increases near 1.1894 unless broken with conviction

Trading Recommendations

• Buy setups:
  • Look for long positions near 1.1833, only if downside pressure stalls
  • Targets: 1.1894 initially, then 1.1955 if momentum builds
• Sell setups:
  • Favor shorts near 1.1894 if price fails to sustain above it
  • Downside targets: 1.1850 then 1.1777
• Outlook: Sideways to mildly constructive, but range-bound

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Market Structure & Drivers

• UK growth remains fragile, reinforcing caution toward sterling
• GDP met expectations, confirming stagnation rather than recovery
• Political calm offers mild relief, but rate-cut expectations from the Bank of England limit upside
• U.S. data remains the primary directional driver

Key Levels

• Support: 1.3614 → 1.3547 → 1.3514
• Resistance: 1.3675 → 1.3697 → 1.3732 → 1.3787

Trading Bias & Strategy

• Repeated tests of 1.3614 weaken buyer confidence
• A clean break below this level risks accelerating downside
• Holding above support keeps the recovery scenario alive

Trading Recommendations

• Buy setups:
  • Consider longs near 1.3614, but only after confirmation of buyer response
  • Targets: 1.3675 then 1.3732
• Sell setups:
  • A firm break below 1.3614 favors shorts toward 1.3547
• Outlook: Cautiously bullish above support, vulnerable below it

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Market Structure & Drivers

• The yen continues to strengthen despite a firm U.S. dollar
• Political clarity and fiscal support expectations in Japan have improved confidence
• Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities reinforces downside pressure
• Markets increasingly price in future policy normalization from the Bank of Japan

Key Levels

• Support: 152.17 → 151.54
• Resistance: 153.83 → 154.58 → 155.19

Trading Bias & Strategy

• Downward momentum remains intact
• Buyers show little conviction on rebounds
• Rallies are increasingly sold into

Trading Recommendations

• Sell setups:
  • Preferred near 153.83, with confirmation
  • Targets: 152.17, then 151.54
• Buy setups:
  • Currently unattractive unless price reclaims and holds above 154.58
• Outlook: Bearish bias remains dominant

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₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin

Market Structure & Sentiment

• Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after aggressive liquidation
• Sentiment indicators reflect extreme fear, historically associated with late-stage sell-offs
• Institutional involvement continues to expand, highlighted by allocations from Goldman Sachs
• Despite panic, no strong recovery catalyst has yet emerged

Key Levels

• Support: 65,600 → 62,600 → 60,100
• Resistance: 68,900 → 72,100 → 74,600 → 77,300

Trading Bias & Strategy

• Market remains volatile and emotionally driven
• Stabilization above resistance is required before trend recovery can be trusted

Trading Recommendations

• Buy setups:
  • Gradual accumulation near 65,600, with tight risk control
  • Stronger confirmation only above 68,900
• Sell setups:
  • Break below 65,600 exposes rapid downside toward 62,600
• Outlook: High risk, high volatility, sentiment-driven

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🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Market Structure & Drivers

• Gold is consolidating after a sharp correction from record highs
• Strong U.S. employment delayed policy easing expectations, pressuring prices
• Long-term support remains intact due to geopolitical risks and central-bank demand
• Bullish projections remain in place from institutions such as BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank

Key Levels

• Support: 4968 → 4745 → 4605
• Resistance: 5086 → 5145 → 5230

Trading Bias & Strategy

• Gold is forming a broad consolidation range
• Breakouts require a strong macro or geopolitical trigger

Trading Recommendations

• Sell setups:
  • Short-term sells near 5086, with rejection signals
  • Targets: 4968
• Buy setups:
  • Only attractive above 5145, opening room toward 5230 and beyond
• Outlook: Neutral with bullish long-term undertone

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📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of February 13, 2026

Asset	Trend Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Preferred Strategy
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	Range-bound	1.1833	1.1894	Buy support, sell resistance
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	Cautious bullish	1.3614	1.3675	Buy dips with confirmation
🇯🇵 USD/JPY	Bearish	152.17	153.83	Sell rallies
₿ BTC/USD	Volatile	65,600	68,900	Selective accumulation
🪙 XAU/USD	Neutral	4968	5086	Range trading

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