EUR steadies as shifting demand and cautious policy expectations shape sentiment, while GBP reacts to soft growth signals and mixed confidence. JPY firms on prospects of policy change and a softer greenback. Bitcoin shows fading momentum amid uneven interest yet remains supported by dip buying. Gold holds firm as traders weigh shifting risk appetite and changing outlook across major economies.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Fundamental Drivers
- Eurozone retail sales stagnated, reflecting weak consumer momentum as households shift toward essential goods.
- Rising inflation pressures and stronger business activity keep the ECB cautious about easing policy.
- U.S. labor data remains the primary driver, as signs of weakening employment increase expectations of Fed rate cuts.
- German bond yields remain elevated, reinforcing moderate euro strength.
Market Behavior
- Euro consolidates near recent highs as traders weigh mixed Eurozone demand against more supportive sentiment from U.S. weakness.
- The pair remains range-bound between key support and resistance, awaiting clarity from upcoming U.S. employment reports.
- The euro’s muted reaction to domestic economic releases shows dependence on U.S. monetary policy signals.
General Forecast
- Mild upside bias as long as the pair holds above key support.
- Strong U.S. data could trigger renewed dollar demand, pushing the pair toward lower support levels.
- Weak U.S. labor numbers may revive euro momentum toward upper resistance.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.1653, 1.1607, 1.1590
- Resistance: 1.1672, 1.1728
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Fundamental Drivers
- UK construction sector weakness pressures overall sentiment, signaling a slowdown in economic activity.
- However, stronger services activity offsets some downside pressure, helping stabilize pound demand.
- U.S. employment figures remain paramount for near-term directional bias.
- Markets expect the Bank of England to stay cautious despite potential future easing.
Market Behavior
- Pound trades near one-month highs supported by improving UK service output and a softer dollar.
- Price action shows strong upward momentum but also overextension from recent averages, increasing correction risk.
- Traders remain sensitive to U.S. data surprises that could shift the path of Fed policy.
General Forecast
- Continued upward momentum remains possible but may slow unless reinforced by weak U.S. economic data.
- A corrective pullback is likely before extending higher toward upper resistance.
- Sellers may regain moderate control if price falls below near-term supports.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.3268, 1.3218, 1.3156
- Resistance: 1.3365
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Fundamental Drivers
- Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike support yen strength.
- Governor Ueda’s comments reinforce confidence in economic conditions and readiness to tighten policy.
- U.S. labor and layoffs data will determine whether the dollar is pressured further.
- Weak U.S. numbers strengthen the yen; strong figures may reverse some of the recent decline.
Market Behavior
- Yen trades at a two-week high as markets position for potential BoJ tightening.
- Price remains sensitive to levels controlled by recent dollar weakness.
- Sellers aim to hold the pair below a key resistance zone to maintain downward pressure.
General Forecast
- Further yen strength likely if the pair stays below upper resistance.
- A rebound becomes possible only if U.S. data decisively supports the dollar.
- Sideways trading likely until both central banks clarify upcoming policy direction.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 154.82, 154.41
- Resistance: 155.50, 156.09, 156.40
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Key Fundamental Drivers
- Bitcoin struggles to maintain upward momentum as on-chain activity declines.
- Market shows reduced liquidity and fading interest from both retail and institutions.
- Broader macro conditions remain the primary force behind medium-term sentiment.
- Large miner-related accumulation suggests continued strategic interest on major dips.
Market Behavior
- Bitcoin fluctuates near key levels after failing multiple times to break higher.
- Repeated buying of dips keeps the medium-term bullish structure intact.
- An impending technical correction is likely as the asset shows exhaustion at the upper range.
- A larger decline may open deeper buying opportunities.
General Forecast
- A downward correction toward lower support levels is likely before the broader upward trend resumes.
- Sustained consolidation above the upper range may lead to a recovery toward psychological thresholds.
- Market likely remains volatile but favors medium-term accumulation after dips.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 92,800 | 91,700 | 87,500 | 85,500
- Resistance: 93,600 | 95,200 | 100,000
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Fundamental Drivers
- Gold remains near six-week highs as markets strongly expect a Fed rate cut next week.
- ADP employment data reinforced expectations of U.S. economic cooling.
- Geopolitical uncertainty continues supporting safe-haven demand.
- Traders await PCE inflation data to confirm the trajectory of Fed policy.
- Positive momentum is supported by softer yields and weaker dollar conditions.
Market Behavior
- Gold failed to hold above strong resistance and fell back toward mid-range support zones.
- Trading remains within a broader descending channel formed since late November.
- Sellers remain active on any rebound toward upper channel boundaries.
- The medium-term outlook carries a bearish tone unless price reclaims major resistance.
General Forecast
- Expect continued downward pressure toward 4163 and potentially 4108.
- Rebounds toward 4197 may attract renewed selling unless price re-consolidates above it.
- A firm close above 4225 opens the path to 4379, though this scenario is less likely near-term.
- Medium-term bearish outlook remains intact with a possible test of the 4000 level.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 4163, 4145, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
- Resistance: 4197, 4225, 4379
📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of December 5, 2025
| Asset | Market Bias | Key Drivers | Supports | Resistances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mild bullish | Eurozone stability, U.S. labor data | 1.1653 / 1.1607 | 1.1672 / 1.1728 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish but overextended | UK services strength, BoE caution, USD softness | 1.3268 / 1.3218 | 1.3365 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish bias (yen strength) | BoJ tightening expectations, weak USD | 154.82 / 154.41 | 155.50 / 156.09 |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Corrective but medium-term bullish | Weak on-chain activity, dip accumulation | 92,800 / 87,500 | 93,600 / 95,200 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish / Range | Fed cut expectations, weak U.S. data, geopolitical tension | 4163 / 4145 / 4108 | 4197 / 4225 |
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