The euro struggles amid dollar strength, weighed by hawkish Fed signals, while the pound wavers following the BoE’s dovish stance and hints at gradual easing. The yen weakens sharply after the BoJ held rates steady, signaling delayed policy normalization, further pressured by a robust dollar outlook. Gold remains under bearish pressure within a downtrend, reflecting dollar dominance and cautious market sentiment. Traders eye U.S. jobless claims, GDP, and housing data for potential shifts in trends, as global central bank actions continue shaping forex and commodities markets in volatile sessions.
EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar)
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, reflecting the broader strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish outlook for 2025, coupled with resilient US economic data, has pushed the euro to its lowest levels since November 2022.
- Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 1.0332, 1.0375, 1.0402
- Resistance Levels: 1.0425, 1.0460, 1.0513
The pair’s bearish trend persists, with the price below key moving averages. Traders should watch the 1.0425 level closely. A break above this resistance could signal a temporary bullish correction, targeting 1.0460. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.0375 could pave the way for further declines toward 1.0332.
- Market Drivers:
- Weak initial jobless claims data or lower-than-expected US GDP figures may provide temporary relief for the euro.
- The European Central Bank’s cautious monetary policy stance continues to weigh on the euro.
- Forecast:
- Near-term bias remains bearish unless there is a decisive break above 1.0513.
- A consolidation below 1.0375 could open the door for further declines.
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)
The British pound is also struggling amid dovish signals from the Bank of England (BoE). While the BoE’s decision to hold rates was expected, the dovish tone has added pressure to the pound.
- Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 1.2513, 1.2455, 1.2400
- Resistance Levels: 1.2617, 1.2660, 1.2728
GBP/USD tested the 1.2621 resistance but failed to sustain gains, highlighting the pair’s bearish bias. Any recovery will face strong resistance at 1.2660. On the downside, a break below 1.2513 would expose the next support at 1.2455.
- Market Drivers:
- Mixed economic data from the UK and a dovish BoE stance limit the pound’s upside potential.
- Strong US economic indicators could exacerbate the pound’s decline.
- Forecast:
- The bearish trend is likely to persist unless there is a clear break above 1.2728.
- Near-term target remains at 1.2455, with potential for a deeper drop if US data remains strong.
USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen)
USD/JPY has reached its highest levels since July 2022, driven by diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 155.00, 154.34, 153.25
- Resistance Levels: 156.98, 157.50, 158.22
The pair remains in a strong uptrend, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Traders should watch the 156.98 resistance level. A break above this could extend the rally toward 158.22. However, a pullback below 155.00 could signal the start of a correction.
- Market Drivers:
- The BoJ’s reluctance to raise rates has weakened the yen.
- US GDP and jobless claims data will play a pivotal role in determining near-term direction.
- Forecast:
- The bullish trend is expected to continue, with potential upside toward 158.22.
- Any correction below 155.00 is likely to be limited, barring a significant shift in BoJ policy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold prices are under pressure, reflecting the strength of the US dollar and higher yields. The precious metal’s recovery from recent lows has been short-lived, with the downtrend likely to resume.
- Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: $2,562, $2,539, $2,500
- Resistance Levels: $2,617, $2,634, $2,650
Gold remains within a descending channel, with key resistance at $2,617. A failure to break above this level could see prices retest $2,562 and potentially $2,539. Conversely, a break above $2,634 could signal a reversal and open the door to $2,650.
- Market Drivers:
- Expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the US weigh on gold.
- Weak economic data could trigger a safe-haven bid for the metal.
- Forecast:
- The outlook remains bearish, with the downtrend likely to continue toward $2,539.
- A break above $2,634 would be needed to negate the bearish bias and target $2,650.
