The euro held firm despite weak German data, buoyed by ECB optimism, but faces pressure from upcoming US jobless claims and Fed commentary. The pound steadied ahead of a BoE rate cut, with sentiment hinging on US labor data and MPC signals. The yen traded sideways as markets assessed BoJ policy amid weak wage growth and cautious inflation outlook. Silver showed strength toward resistance, though mixed signals keep the bias uncertain amid shifting US rate expectations. Gold hovered near recent highs, supported by Fed easing hopes but constrained by technical barriers and looming breakout risks.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment:
- The euro is under moderate pressure after weak German industrial data, which reinforces concerns about the Eurozone’s growth trajectory.
- Brief upside momentum was supported by hawkish ECB commentary from Holtzman and a softer dollar following dovish remarks from Fed officials Kashkari and Cook.
- However, expectations for stronger US jobless claims data and hawkish FOMC remarks later today could add dollar strength.
Key Drivers:
- Eurozone: Weak German factory orders point to manufacturing strain.
- ECB Policy: Hawkish stance limits near-term euro downside but lacks strong economic backing.
- US Factors: Jobless claims, consumer credit data, and Fed rhetoric will be pivotal for near-term movement.
Support Levels: 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast:
- Likely to test resistance near 1.1710 if US data disappoints and Fed signals easing.
- Break below 1.1528 could trigger a return to a broader downtrend.
- Short-term bias slightly bullish, but vulnerable to reversal on strong US data.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment:
- Pound is attempting recovery ahead of the BoE policy announcement, supported by consolidation above 1.3313.
- Expected BoE rate cut of 0.25% could weigh on sterling, but any hawkish dissent within the MPC could cushion losses.
- Fed’s tone and US data remain key for USD direction against the pound.
Key Drivers:
- UK Economy: Weak labor market, rising unemployment, and slowing wage growth are pushing BoE toward easing.
- BoE Policy: Gradual and cautious rate cut cycle; no aggressive dovish signals expected today.
- US Factors: Jobless claims and Bostic’s speech will set dollar tone.
Support Levels: 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
Resistance Levels: 1.3372, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470
Forecast:
- A hawkish BoE vote split could see GBP push toward 1.3400+.
- A dovish Fed and soft US data could support an upside breakout above 1.3470.
- Weak UK data + hawkish Fed could reverse gains toward 1.3214.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Sentiment:
- Yen remains stable near 147.5, with sideways trading amid lack of strong domestic catalysts.
- BoJ keeps rates unchanged but hints at possible tightening if global risks ease.
- Yen’s short-term moves remain heavily tied to US yields and Fed outlook.
Key Drivers:
- Japan: Inflation outpacing wages, limiting BoJ’s tightening space.
- US Factors: Hawkish Fed stance would lift USD/JPY; dovish shift could drive yen gains.
- Risk Sentiment: Any rise in risk aversion may boost yen demand as a safe haven.
Support Levels: 147.36, 146.63, 146.34
Resistance Levels: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34
Forecast:
- Break below 147.05 could accelerate decline toward 146.34.
- Upside tests toward 148.50 possible if US data is strong and Fed stays hawkish.
- Medium-term bias mildly bearish, but range-bound conditions dominate near term.
🥈Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook – Silver vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment:
- Short-term upside momentum, with price eyeing resistance at 37.917 and 38.063.
- Mixed technical signals: descending trendline break suggests upside, but broader bearish structure remains unless daily close above 38.22.
- Market sentiment is net-long (62%), raising contrarian risk of a short-term pullback.
Key Drivers:
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Looser policy could weaken USD, supporting silver.
- Technical Bias: Still in long-term bearish phase unless resistance breaks decisively.
- US Data: Jobless claims, productivity, and unit labor costs could drive volatility.
Support Levels: 37.607, 37.443
Resistance Levels: 37.917, 38.063, 38.227
Forecast:
- Break above 38.063 could open 38.227.
- Failure at resistance + strong US data could send silver back toward 37.443.
- Bias cautiously bullish intraday, but broader trend uncertain.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Sentiment:
- Holding near two-week highs after bouncing from 3,373 support.
- Market highly sensitive to Fed rate cut expectations; current pricing suggests ~90% probability of September cut.
- Consolidating within a triangle pattern, awaiting breakout.
Key Drivers:
- Fed Policy Outlook: Looser stance favors gold; hawkish pivot could spark correction.
- US Data: Weak labor and services data have bolstered bullish gold sentiment.
- Technical Setup: Above 3,385 opens path to 3,402 and 3,433; below 3,351 risks 3,333 and 3,281.
Support Levels: 3,351, 3,333, 3,311, 3,281
Resistance Levels: 3,385, 3,402, 3,433
Forecast:
- Break above 3,385 confirms bullish extension.
- Strong US data + hawkish Fed commentary could force correction to 3,351 or lower.
- Medium-term bias bullish, but near-term depends on US macro releases.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 8, 2025
| Asset | Bias (Short-term) | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Slightly Bullish | ECB hawkish tone vs. US data risk | 1.1589 / 1.1528 | 1.1678 / 1.1710 | Test 1.1710 if US data weak, else reversal |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral to Bearish | BoE rate cut & Fed tone | 1.3313 / 1.3214 | 1.3372 / 1.3470 | Range-bound, breakout if BoE hawkish |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Range-bound Bearish | BoJ cautious stance, US yields | 147.36 / 146.34 | 147.89 / 148.54 | Drift lower if 147.05 breaks |
| 🥈 XAG/USD | Cautiously Bullish | Fed cut bets, technical breakout risk | 37.607 / 37.443 | 37.917 / 38.063 | Upside toward 38.22 if resistance breaks |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | Fed cut bets, US data weakness | 3,351 / 3,333 | 3,385 / 3,433 | Higher toward 3,402+ if Fed stays dovish |
