The euro stayed resilient despite weak eurozone data and cautious ECB outlook, while the pound held steady as UK construction figures fell short. The yen saw support from soft wage data, reinforcing dovish BoJ sentiment. The Australian dollar gained strength on upbeat Chinese and regional data, though upside may be capped ahead of trade and central bank decisions. Gold remained firm near recent highs, supported by expectations of looser US monetary policy amid signs of slowing growth and weaker labor conditions, boosting its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Backdrop:
- Recent data showed a drop in German industrial orders and disappointing eurozone retail sales, suggesting ongoing economic strain.
- Despite this, the euro remains resilient, reflecting expectations that the Fed may ease more aggressively than the ECB.
- The market now sees a roughly 60% chance of an ECB cut by year-end and higher odds into early 2026.
U.S. Dollar Influence:
- A weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll report and downward revisions have solidified market bets on a September Fed rate cut.
- Comments from Fed officials (Collins, Cook, Daly) will be critical in shaping short-term sentiment toward the dollar.
Technical Outlook:
- Resistance levels: 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770
- Support levels: 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
- The pair is trading in a consolidation zone just below the critical resistance of 1.1611. A break above this level would confirm bullish continuation.
Forecast:
- Bullish bias if price holds above 1.1515 and breaks 1.1611.
- Cautious tone from Fed officials could support euro gains.
- Bearish reversal possible on failure at 1.1611 with renewed USD strength.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Backdrop:
- UK construction PMI came in sharply below expectations, raising concerns about domestic demand and growth momentum.
- Recent Services PMI was slightly revised upward, but employment and export orders remain weak.
- The market is watching labor and inflation data closely to gauge BoE’s next moves.
U.S. Dollar Influence:
- Fed commentary remains a decisive force for direction.
- A dovish Fed could allow the pound to rally, despite UK domestic headwinds.
Technical Outlook:
- Resistance levels: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470
- Support levels: 1.3214, 1.3137
- The pound is coiling within a narrowing triangle below resistance at 1.3313. Upside potential increases if buyers successfully push above.
Forecast:
- A break and hold above 1.3313 may open the door to further gains, but weakness below 1.3214 would suggest more downside ahead.
- Technical consolidation suggests waiting for a directional breakout.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macroeconomic Backdrop:
- Japan’s real wages continue to fall, undermining BoJ’s path to tightening.
- Inflation remains persistent, but sluggish wage growth weakens the case for hikes.
- Fed easing could support the yen, but the BoJ’s hesitation may offset gains.
U.S. Dollar Influence:
- Fed members’ comments will steer sentiment. Dovish outlook could send USD/JPY lower, but only if BoJ maintains passive stance.
Technical Outlook:
- Resistance levels: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34
- Support levels: 147.36, 146.63, 146.34
- USD/JPY is consolidating between 147.36 and 147.89, forming a flat structure. A breakout above 147.89 may signal bullish continuation.
Forecast:
- Watch for rejection at 147.89 to re-engage bearish trades toward 146.63.
- A break below 146.34 could resume the broader downtrend.
- Fed tone and wage-related sentiment in Japan will continue to drive this pair.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Backdrop:
- Positive PMI data from Australia and China support the Aussie, alongside improving commodity prices (particularly oil).
- The upcoming RBA decision (August 12) is widely expected to result in a rate cut, but recent data has cooled expectations of aggressive easing.
Market Sentiment:
- AUD is also lifted by strength in the NZD and broader risk-on sentiment.
- The U.S. NFP miss and downward revision have weakened the USD, giving the AUD room to rise despite technical resistance nearby.
Technical Outlook:
- Resistance levels: 0.6513, 0.6580, 0.6625
- Support levels: 0.6470, 0.6439, 0.6420, 0.6300
- Price is attempting to re-enter an old ascending channel near the 0.6513 zone. RSI and EMA patterns support near-term bullish bias.
Forecast:
- A close above 0.6513 could extend the rally to 0.6580–0.6625.
- Breakdown below 0.6439 shifts bias back to bearish consolidation.
- The pair remains in a tug-of-war between commodity momentum and anticipated RBA easing.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
- Macroeconomic Backdrop:
- Gold remains buoyed by weak U.S. data and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- The ISM Services index and labor market data suggest economic slowdown.
- A rate cut in September is now priced at 90% probability.
- Market Sentiment:
- Non-yielding assets like gold benefit from lower interest rate expectations.
- Fed dovishness fuels gold demand, while strong inflation data or rate hold commentary would cap gains.
- Technical Outlook:
- Resistance levels: 3401, 3438
- Support levels: 3373, 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
- Price is near support at 3373 and could bounce higher toward 3401. Break below 3373 may lead to 3351 or even 3311.
- Forecast:
- Sustained move above 3401 would open the path to retest 3435 and possibly the all-time high.
- Watch for weakness below 3350 as a signal of bearish correction.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 7, 2025
| Pair | Bias | Key Resistance Levels | Key Support Levels | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mild Bullish | 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770 | 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313 | Fed cut expectations, eurozone data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral/Bearish | 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470 | 1.3214, 1.3137 | UK economic slowdown, Fed guidance |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Sideways/Bearish | 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34 | 147.36, 146.63, 146.34 | Japanese wages, Fed tone, BoJ hesitancy |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish Bias | 0.6513, 0.6580, 0.6625 | 0.6470, 0.6439, 0.6420, 0.6300 | China/Aus data, commodities, RBA outlook |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3401, 3438, 3500 | 3373, 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281 | Fed rate cut pricing, weak USD, yield compression |
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