The euro found strength despite weak sentiment data, while the pound was lifted by a softer dollar even amid UK economic concerns. The yen steadied after sharp moves driven by shifting Fed expectations and cautious BoJ commentary. The Australian dollar’s rise lacked solid domestic backing and hinges on further U.S. weakness. Meanwhile, gold remained buoyed by safe-haven flows, weak U.S. data, and rising geopolitical risks, with traders watching Fed policy signals closely as dollar momentum fades and market uncertainty lingers across major asset classes.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
- The euro saw a sharp rally, benefiting from a weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report, which strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
- Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index came in weak, but the euro rebounded, highlighting underlying bullish sentiment and resilience against soft regional data.
- Inflation in the Eurozone stood slightly above expectations at 2.0%, keeping pressure off the ECB to cut rates further in the short term.
- Probability of a Fed rate cut jumped to 75% after the jobs data, contrasting with expectations of a smaller rate move by the ECB.
- The pair is currently attempting to break and hold above the 1.1611 resistance level, which could open the path to 1.1710 and higher.
- Technical structure remains bullish in the near term but vulnerable to US political and economic headlines.
- Traders will closely watch Fed official speeches and any updates from the White House on monetary policy for additional directional cues.
Support Levels: 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast: Bullish bias above 1.1515 with upside potential toward 1.1710, especially if US data remains weak and Fed rhetoric stays dovish.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
- The pound rebounded above 1.3290 after the US jobs miss but remains fundamentally fragile due to poor UK economic outlook.
- July was the worst month for GBP since September 2022, posting a 3.8% decline amid growing recession concerns.
- Expectations are increasing that the Bank of England may cut rates by 25bps in August, with another cut possibly before year-end.
- Lack of key UK data this week leaves GBP exposed to external factors, especially USD dynamics and global risk sentiment.
- Price is testing the 1.3313 resistance level. A breakout could lead toward 1.3368, though momentum remains cautious.
- The pair is still in a bearish broader trend but attempting a short-term technical recovery driven by USD weakness.
Support Levels: 1.3214, 1.3137
Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470
Forecast: Cautious bullish bias in the short term while above 1.3214; outlook remains bearish unless price decisively clears 1.3470.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
- USD/JPY saw a significant decline, retreating from 150.71 to 147.41 after the US employment report triggered dollar selling.
- Markets continue to price in a September Fed rate cut, but officials remain cautious, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions and tariff escalations.
- The BoJ recently raised its inflation forecast but left rates unchanged. Attention now shifts to upcoming BoJ minutes for signs of a future rate hike.
- Technical structure has shifted to bearish in the medium term, with current resistance at 147.89 acting as a key pivot zone.
- The yen remains sensitive to both Fed rate expectations and global risk appetite—especially with geopolitical escalation in Eastern Europe.
- If price breaks and holds below 147.21, the next wave of selling could resume toward 146.34.
Support Levels: 147.21, 146.34
Resistance Levels: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34
Forecast: Bearish bias remains intact while below 148.54; downside favored toward 146.34 on continued dollar weakness and safe-haven flows.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
- AUD/USD is seeing a corrective rally largely driven by a weaker US dollar rather than Australian economic strength.
- Australian MI Inflation Gauge surged 0.9% in July, offering temporary support, but this spike is likely seasonal and not enough to reverse the broader trend.
- Australia’s Q2 CPI slowed to 2.1% y/y, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling—both supporting the case for a rate cut by the RBA in August.
- Despite short-term upward moves, domestic fundamentals for the Aussie remain weak, and sustained rallies will require continued USD softness.
- The pair is testing the 0.6480–0.6489 resistance zone. Without strong follow-through, a reversal back toward 0.6450 and 0.6400 is likely.
- Technically, price remains within a neutral-to-bearish structure on the daily chart.
Support Levels: 0.6462, 0.6453, 0.6400
Resistance Levels: 0.6480, 0.6489, 0.6590, 0.6640
Forecast: Bearish bias below 0.6489; short-term upside likely capped unless supported by fresh positive surprises from Australian data.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
- Gold rallied sharply above $3,350 after the weak US jobs report boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
- Political instability in the US—resignations and presidential interventions—has further fueled demand for gold as a safe haven.
- Rising geopolitical tensions (e.g., Trump’s military directives near Russia) have strengthened gold’s appeal amid growing global uncertainty.
- Technically, gold has broken out of its downtrend and is now consolidating above key support around 3,351.
- A test of the 3,385 resistance zone may lead to a technical pullback toward 3,320–3,330, which could offer better buying opportunities.
- Any downside is expected to be limited given the current macroeconomic backdrop, especially if geopolitical risks persist.
Support Levels: 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
Resistance Levels: 3377, 3401, 3438
Forecast: Bullish bias sustained while above 3311; pullbacks are likely to be bought, with upside targets at 3401 and 3438 in the medium term.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 5, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Forecast Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.1515, 1.1485 | 1.1611, 1.1710 | Strong above 1.1515; targets 1.1710 on USD weakness |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral-Bearish | 1.3214, 1.3137 | 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3470 | Short-term bounce; long-term risks remain |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish | 147.21, 146.34 | 147.89, 148.54 | More downside expected toward 146.34 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6462, 0.6453, 0.6400 | 0.6489, 0.6590 | Weak rally; reversal likely without new drivers |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3351, 3333, 3311 | 3377, 3401, 3438 | Upside favored; pullbacks offer buying chances |
