The euro faces pressure from weak confidence data and French political risks, while the pound steadies on cautious demand outlooks. The yen trades in a wide range as traders await US growth signals. The Canadian dollar gains as tariff talks ease and markets prepare for domestic output figures. Gold holds firm near highs, supported by inflation concerns and political uncertainty surrounding the central bank, with investors watching upcoming data for further direction in safe-haven flows.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
- Current Drivers:
- Weakness persists due to falling German consumer confidence and political risks in France.
- Eurozone lending and money supply data in line with forecasts, offering little support.
- Market remains cautious ahead of U.S. GDP and jobless claims, which could shift USD momentum.
- Geopolitical risks (Ukraine conflict) continue to weigh on sentiment.
- Outlook:
- Strong U.S. data could push EUR/USD lower; weak U.S. data may give the euro a short-lived rebound.
- Risk remains tilted to the downside unless eurozone growth data surprises positively.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1611, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485
- Resistance: 1.1659, 1.1687, 1.1737, 1.1770
- Forecast: Short-term outlook leans bearish if U.S. data remains strong, with possible dips toward 1.1610. However, weak U.S. numbers could trigger a rebound toward 1.1687–1.1737.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
- Current Drivers:
- Pound gained slightly on better-than-expected CBI Retail Sales data, but retail remains in contraction for over a year.
- Domestic pressures: high labor costs, tax hikes, and weak demand continue to weigh on UK growth prospects.
- Absence of major UK data leaves GBP reliant on U.S. releases (GDP and jobless claims).
- Outlook:
- Dollar strength on strong data could drag GBP lower.
- Weak U.S. releases would support GBP/USD recovery.
- Political and economic uncertainties in the UK remain medium-term risks.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 1.3490, 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3313
- Resistance: 1.3530, 1.3586
- Forecast: Pound outlook remains cautiously bullish above 1.3490, with upside potential toward 1.3586. However, a break below 1.3445 could renew bearish momentum.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Drivers:
- Yen weakened slightly as U.S. yields stayed firm, but pair remains range-bound.
- BoJ’s stance: gradual tightening if growth and inflation align, with Tankan survey critical for policy outlook.
- Traders remain cautious due to uncertainty in global trade negotiations.
Outlook:
- USD/JPY direction highly dependent on U.S. GDP and jobless claims.
- Risk of yen strengthening if risk sentiment deteriorates globally or if U.S. data disappoints.
Key Levels:
- Support: 147.00, 146.75, 146.35
- Resistance: 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18
Forecast: Range-bound with bearish tilt below 147.94. If U.S. data disappoints, yen could strengthen toward 146.75. A breakout above 148.52 would revive bullish momentum.
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Current Drivers:
- USD/CAD pulled back after failing to hold above 1.3810 despite stronger U.S. GDP, signaling possible exhaustion in USD buying.
- Market focus now shifts to Canada’s GDP data; stronger Canadian growth could strengthen CAD further.
- Trade tensions (tariff exemptions expiring) remain a risk factor.
Outlook:
- Short-term bearish bias as pair re-enters July trading range (1.3550–1.38).
- A firm break below 1.3730–1.3750 support would open downside toward 1.3675.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.3750, 1.3730, 1.3675, 1.3635
- Resistance: 1.38, 1.3850, 1.3925
Forecast: Bearish bias as long as price holds below 1.3810. A retest of 1.3675 looks possible, though recovery toward 1.3850 cannot be ruled out if U.S. dollar rebounds.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Drivers:
- Gold steadies after strong gains, supported by safe-haven demand amid Fed independence concerns.
- Political risks: potential removal of Fed Governor Cook raises doubts about Fed autonomy.
- Inflation concerns linger, with markets pricing in a September rate cut.
- Strong Asian demand (China imports) provides additional support.
Outlook:
- Bullish trend intact, but consolidation near $3,400 resistance may trigger corrective pullbacks.
- Investors eye Friday’s PCE inflation data for clearer Fed guidance.
Key Levels:
- Support: 3383, 3374, 3362, 3350, 3327
- Resistance: 3402, 3433, 3440, 3490
Forecast: Bullish bias remains above 3380, with potential test of 3433–3440. If sellers regain control below 3383, a correction toward 3350–3327 could follow.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 29, 2025
| Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Weak German confidence, France politics, U.S. GDP/jobs | 1.1611, 1.1589 | 1.1659, 1.1737 | Bearish bias, rebound possible if U.S. data weak |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | UK retail weakness, labor cost pressures, U.S. data | 1.3490, 1.3445 | 1.3530, 1.3586 | Cautious bullish above 1.3490, risk of dip below 1.3445 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | BOJ cautious stance, U.S. GDP/jobs, trade risks | 147.00, 146.75 | 147.94, 148.52 | Range-bound, bearish tilt unless breakout above 148.52 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | U.S./Canada GDP releases, tariff developments | 1.3750, 1.3675 | 1.38, 1.3850 | Bearish bias below 1.3810, test of 1.3675 possible |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Fed independence risk, inflation, Asian demand | 3383, 3350 | 3402, 3433 | Bullish above 3380, eyeing 3433–3440 |
