The euro remains pressured by weak German sentiment and dovish ECB expectations, while the pound struggles under soft retail data and policy uncertainty. The yen is weighed down by a cautious Bank of Japan as the dollar stays resilient, with Fed signals closely watched. The Australian dollar reacts nervously to inflation surprises and RBA easing prospects, its direction still tied to US dollar swings. The Swiss franc draws safe-haven demand amid Fed tensions, though SNB intervention risks cap gains. Gold trades near highs, supported by political uncertainty and safe-haven flows, though correction risks remain.

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers:

• German consumer sentiment at -23.6 (below forecast) weighs on the euro.
• ECB cautious due to fragile growth outlook, despite stronger German business activity.
• Fed policy divergence remains a key factor: Powell hinting at September cut supports EUR.
• Euro pressured by weak household spending expectations, but underpinned by labor strength.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• Range-bound as markets await FOMC comments and further eurozone inflation data.
• Modest upside possible if USD weakens, but resistance layers remain thick.

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 1.1608, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485
• Resistance: 1.1660, 1.1687, 1.1737, 1.1770

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Mildly bullish (on policy divergence).
• Upside capped near 1.1735 unless strong dovish Fed signals emerge.
• Breakdown below 1.1590 reopens bearish risks.

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers:

• Weak UK retail sales weigh on sterling.
• BoE stuck between high inflation and weak growth outlook.
• Services sector growth provides some resilience, but not enough to change BoE stance.
• Fed rhetoric remains decisive: hawkish tones support USD, dovish tones support GBP.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• Flat consolidation around 1.3445–1.3490.
• Markets unconvinced about near-term BoE easing (cut probability <50% this year).

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214
• Resistance: 1.3490, 1.3530, 1.3586

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Neutral to mildly bearish.
• Break below 1.3396 → extended downside.
• Upside limited without clearer BoE hawkish guidance.

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Fundamental Drivers:

• Fed vs. BoJ divergence supports dollar strength.
• BoJ maintains ultra-loose policy despite modest wage growth expectations.
• Yen remains weak due to yield differentials.
• Market sensitive to Fed speakers—hawkish tone reinforces USD/JPY upside.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• Range between 147.00–147.94 dominates.
• Break above 148.53 opens path toward 150.00+.

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 147.00, 146.75, 146.35
• Resistance: 147.94, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Bullish (yield divergence).
• Risk of intervention grows if USD/JPY climbs above 150.00.

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🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers:

• RBA minutes reveal dovish tilt but inflation surprise (2.8% y/y) complicates outlook.
• Labor market resilience and inflation persistence reduce probability of September cut.
• Market pricing: ~22% chance of cut in Sept, 61% in Nov.
• US dollar volatility (political tension with Trump vs Fed) remains key external driver.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• Consolidation above 0.6480.
• Inflation surprise ignored in the short term but could weigh on RBA easing later.

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 0.6486, 0.6476, 0.6460, 0.6420
• Resistance: 0.6502, 0.6512, 0.6560

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Neutral, tilting bullish if above 0.6500.
• A break below 0.6460 risks retest of 0.6420.

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🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc

Fundamental Drivers:

• Fed independence concerns following Trump vs. Fed board saga weigh on USD.
• SNB facing export strain due to tariffs and strong franc.
• SNB openly signaling readiness to intervene to curb franc strength.
• Swiss inflation subdued → dovish SNB bias continues.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• USD/CHF hovering just above 0.8000 key psychological level.
• SNB intervention risk acts as downside cap.

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 0.8000, 0.7950, 0.7850
• Resistance: 0.8070, 0.8120, 0.8200

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish.
• Downside limited by SNB intervention, upside capped by Fed uncertainty.

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🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers:

• Fed independence concerns boosting safe-haven demand.
• Markets pricing 80% chance of September Fed cut—bullish for gold.
• Political instability (US tariffs on India, Fed-Gov tensions) adds tailwind.

Short-term Market Sentiment:

• Trading near $3,388 with resistance at $3,400.
• Overbought signs suggest correction risk toward $3,350–$3,320.

Support & Resistance:

• Support: 3374, 3362, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• Resistance: 3383, 3402, 3433

Forecast Outlook:

• Bias: Bullish medium-term, corrective short-term.
• Correction likely toward 3350–3320 before new leg higher.
• Break below 3280 risks deeper retracement.

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📊 Summary Table: As of August 28, 2025

Asset	Bias (Short-term)	Key Supports	Key Resistances	Outlook Summary
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	Mildly Bullish	1.1608 / 1.1589 / 1.1528	1.1660 / 1.1687 / 1.1737	Supported by policy divergence; capped unless USD weakens.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	Neutral → Bearish	1.3445 / 1.3396 / 1.3313	1.3490 / 1.3530 / 1.3586	Flat, vulnerable to downside unless BoE shifts hawkish.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY	Bullish	147.00 / 146.75 / 146.35	147.94 / 148.52 / 149.18	Yield gap drives upside; intervention risk above 150.
🇦🇺 AUD/USD	Neutral → Bullish if >0.6500	0.6486 / 0.6476 / 0.6460	0.6502 / 0.6512 / 0.6560	RBA dovish but inflation surprise supports AUD.
🇨🇭 USD/CHF	Neutral → Mildly Bullish	0.8000 / 0.7950 / 0.7850	0.8070 / 0.8120 / 0.8200	SNB intervention risk caps CHF strength.
🪙 XAU/USD	Bullish (Medium-term), Corrective (Short-term)	3374 / 3362 / 3350 / 3327	3383 / 3402 / 3433	Overbought, correction likely before fresh rally.