Despite challenges in the global economy, the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and gold have each exhibited distinct trends. The Euro remains steady, even with weak German data, showing resilience as it navigates a volatile US Dollar. The British Pound, bolstered by robust UK economic data, has outperformed but faces potential corrections as market sentiment shifts. The Japanese Yen, influenced by geopolitical tensions and modest economic indicators, is seeing cautious upward pressure. Gold, near historical highs, reflects a safe haven sentiment amid global uncertainty and expectations of US interest rate adjustments.
EUR/USD:
The Euro has remained relatively calm, despite weaker-than-expected German economic data. The German GfK Consumer Climate Index fell to -22.0 for September, down from -18.6 in August, reflecting persistent economic pessimism. Despite this, the Euro has gained 3.1% against the US Dollar in August, largely due to expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, signaled by Chair Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 1.1140, 1.1129, 1.1104
- Resistance Levels: 1.1171, 1.1192, 1.1275
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair shows a bullish trend with potential to rise toward the 1.1275 resistance level if it maintains its position above 1.1171. A break below 1.1140 could signal a shift to bearish momentum, potentially targeting 1.1104. The market is likely to continue responding to US economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, which could affect Fed rate cut expectations.
GBP/USD:
The British Pound has been a strong performer, driven by solid UK economic data and expectations that the Bank of England will maintain its current rate policy. However, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of being overbought, with the RSI indicating a potential correction.
Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 1.3175, 1.3137, 1.3075
- Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3354, 1.3500
Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair is currently in a bullish trend, with potential to move towards 1.3306. However, the overbought RSI suggests a possible short-term pullback to support levels around 1.3175. If the pair breaks below 1.3137, it could indicate a deeper correction toward 1.3075. In the long term, the pair could resume its upward momentum, particularly if UK economic data continues to outperform.
USD/JPY:
The Japanese Yen has strengthened against the US Dollar, supported by an upward revision of Japan’s Leading Index and increased demand due to geopolitical tensions. However, the medium-term trend for USD/JPY remains bearish.
Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 142.69, 144.50, 142.80
- Resistance Levels: 145.24, 146.62, 148.29
Forecast:
USD/JPY is likely to face selling pressure if it fails to break above the 145.24 resistance level, with potential declines towards 144.50 or lower. A sustained break above 145.24 could challenge the 146.62 level, though this would require strong US economic data to support such a move. The pair’s direction will likely hinge on upcoming US and Japanese economic releases.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold remains in a bullish trend, despite recent declines below $2,510 per ounce. Expectations of a US rate cut and rising geopolitical risks have provided underlying support for the precious metal.
Technical Outlook:
- Support Levels: 2503, 2494, 2479
- Resistance Levels: 2520, 2539, 2578
Forecast:
Gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with key resistance at $2,520 and further upside potential toward $2,539 and $2,578. A break below $2,503 could trigger a correction towards $2,490 or lower, though the overall trend remains bullish. Investors are expected to use any pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in light of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
