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The euro stayed under pressure as dollar strength limited recovery despite support from German data, while the pound held steady after upbeat UK business activity. The yen gained slightly as investors watched U.S. sentiment and trade headlines, though policy uncertainty weighed on direction. The Australian dollar struggled amid concerns over tariffs and dovish central bank signals, with inflation data awaited for clarity. Gold held near recent highs as political tensions and expectations of central bank easing continued to support safe-haven demand.


🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Key Factors:

  • Euro retreated as the U.S. dollar strengthened, despite Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index hitting a 16-month high.
  • ECB President Lagarde downplayed tariff impacts, but geopolitical risks (Ukraine conflict) keep sentiment cautious.
  • U.S. data in focus: consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and housing prices. Strong readings would support the dollar and weigh on the euro.
  • Market sentiment hinges on whether euro buyers defend the 1.1625 area, which is seen as a last support zone before a deeper decline.

Support levels: 1.1625, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313

Resistance levels: 1.1660, 1.1687, 1.1737, 1.1770

Forecast:

  • If the euro holds above 1.1625, short-term rebounds toward 1.1660 are possible.
  • A break below 1.1590 would likely confirm renewed selling pressure, targeting deeper lows near 1.1528.


🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

  • Key Factors:
    • The pound slipped as the dollar strengthened, but underlying UK economic data showed the strongest services activity of the year.
    • Inflation rose recently but mainly due to higher airfares, limiting its impact on Bank of England policy expectations.
    • Markets see low probability of BoE rate cuts this year, with most expectations shifted into 2026.
    • Dollar-driven volatility remains central, with U.S. macro releases shaping short-term pound direction.
  • Support levels: 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
  • Resistance levels: 1.3445, 1.3476, 1.3586
  • Forecast:
    • The pair remains bullish above 1.3445, with potential rebounds toward 1.3520–1.3580 if U.S. data weakens.
    • A break below 1.3396 would risk further declines toward the 1.3310 area.


🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Key Factors:

  • The yen regained ground after USD/JPY hit 147, pressured by political concerns over Fed independence following Trump’s dismissal of a Fed board member.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed expectations of continued wage growth, supporting the case for gradual monetary tightening in Japan.
  • U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods data remain decisive for near-term moves.
  • Market remains range-bound, with traders eyeing levels around 147.00–147.94.

Support levels: 147.00, 146.75, 146.35

Resistance levels: 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

Forecast:

  • If buyers hold above 147.00, rebounds toward 148.00 are possible.
  • A break below 146.75 would open downside risks toward 146.35, resuming bearish momentum.


🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar

Key Factors:

  • The Aussie faces pressure from weaker global sentiment due to Trump’s tariff threats on Chinese goods.
  • RBA minutes showed a dovish tilt, signaling more rate cuts likely in 2025, though the pace depends on inflation and jobs data.
  • Market awaits Australia’s CPI release, expected to rise to 2.3% y/y, which could complicate the RBA’s easing plans.
  • U.S. political and Fed-related uncertainty keeps the dollar volatile, directly affecting AUD/USD moves.

Support levels: 0.6469, 0.6438, 0.6414, 0.6372

Resistance levels: 0.6524, 0.6555, 0.6570, 0.6625

Forecast:

  • If AUD/USD holds above 0.6470, it could retest 0.6520–0.6550.
  • A break below 0.6438 risks further declines toward 0.6410–0.6370.


🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Key Factors:

  • Gold rose above $3,370 amid heightened U.S. political uncertainty and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
  • Powell highlighted labor market risks but left the door open on inflation concerns, keeping traders cautious.
  • Markets await Friday’s PCE Price Index for further direction on Fed policy.
  • Technicals show strong bullish bias as long as gold remains above $3,370, though consolidation signals caution.

Support levels: 3374, 3358, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281

Resistance levels: 3383, 3402, 3433

Forecast:

  • Above 3,374, gold could climb toward 3,383 and 3,402.
  • A drop below 3,365 risks correction toward 3,345, while a deeper break below 3,281 would shift momentum bearish.


📊 Summary Table: As of August 27, 2025

AssetBiasKey Support LevelsKey Resistance LevelsForecast Direction
🇪🇺 EUR/USDBearish-to-neutral1.1625, 1.1590, 1.15281.1660, 1.1687, 1.1737Weak euro unless U.S. data disappoints
🇬🇧 GBP/USDNeutral-to-bullish1.3445, 1.3396, 1.33131.3476, 1.3524, 1.3586Pound may recover if U.S. data weakens
🇯🇵 USD/JPYRange-bound147.00, 146.75, 146.35147.94, 148.52, 149.18Choppy trade, risks lower if under 147
🇦🇺 AUD/USDNeutral-to-bearish0.6470, 0.6438, 0.64140.6524, 0.6555, 0.6570Aussie pressured, rebound only if CPI strong
🪙 XAU/USDBullish3374, 3358, 33503383, 3402, 3433Upside bias, but correction risk below 3370


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