The euro experienced slight declines as the Eurozone PMI data presented a mixed picture, with services showing strength while manufacturing continued to contract. Meanwhile, the British pound reached a new high against the dollar, driven by positive UK economic indicators and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Japanese yen initially strengthened but later gave up gains as the dollar rebounded, with attention now turning to upcoming inflation data in Japan and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. In the commodities market, gold prices fluctuated around key support levels, reflecting investor caution ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could signal future interest rate moves. The overall market mood remains cautious, with traders closely monitoring central bank actions and economic data releases across major economies.
EUR/USD:
Current Overview:
- EUR/USD is trading at 1.1136, slightly lower due to mixed Eurozone PMI data. The services PMI showed strength at 53.3, driven by the Olympics in Paris, while manufacturing PMI dipped to 45.6, indicating contraction.
- The Euro is also influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, potentially weakening the USD.
Technical Analysis:
- Support Levels: 1.1108, 1.1060, 1.1017
- Resistance Levels: 1.1183, 1.1216
Forecast:
- The pair is likely to remain range-bound between 1.1108 and 1.1183 in the near term. A breakout above 1.1183 could lead to further gains towards 1.1216, especially if U.S. economic data disappoints.
- Conversely, if the pair breaks below 1.1108, it may retest the 1.1060 support level.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: Buy on dips near 1.1108 with a target of 1.1183, stop-loss below 1.1060.
- Bearish Scenario: Sell on rallies near 1.1183 with a target of 1.1108, stop-loss above 1.1216.
GBP/USD:
Current Overview:
- GBP/USD is trading around 1.3089, supported by strong UK economic data and expectations of a Fed rate cut. The UK PMI data has been favorable, helping the pound maintain its upward momentum.
Technical Analysis:
- Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2932
- Resistance Levels: 1.3140
Forecast:
- The pair is likely to test the resistance at 1.3140. A successful break could push GBP/USD towards 1.3184. However, if the pair fails to break 1.3140, a pullback towards 1.3055 is possible.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: Buy near 1.3055 with a target of 1.3140, stop-loss below 1.2973.
- Bearish Scenario: Sell near 1.3140 with a target of 1.3055, stop-loss above 1.3184.
USD/JPY:
Current Overview:
- USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, rebounding after a decline driven by speculation around the Fed’s rate cut. The yen’s strength has been bolstered by rising Japanese inflation and expectations of a BOJ rate hike.
Technical Analysis:
- Support Levels: 144.50, 142.80, 140.22
- Resistance Levels: 146.62, 148.29
Forecast:
- USD/JPY is likely to test the resistance at 146.62. If broken, the pair could target 148.29. On the downside, a break below 144.50 could see the pair retesting the 142.80 support level.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: Buy near 145.75 with a target of 146.62, stop-loss below 144.50.
- Bearish Scenario: Sell near 146.62 with a target of 145.27, stop-loss above 148.29.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Current Overview:
- Gold is trading around $2,500, fluctuating as markets anticipate the Fed’s next move. The bullish trend remains intact, but a break below $2,500 could signal a bearish shift.
Technical Analysis:
- Support Levels: $2,500, $2,470, $2,451
- Resistance Levels: $2,520, $2,539
Forecast:
- Gold is expected to remain in a consolidation phase between $2,500 and $2,520. A break above $2,520 could lead to a retest of the $2,539 level, while a break below $2,500 could see prices decline towards $2,470.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: Buy near $2,470 with a target of $2,520, stop-loss below $2,451.
- Bearish Scenario: Sell below $2,500 with a target of $2,470, stop-loss above $2,520.
