The euro gained support from stronger business activity data, though recovery remains fragile as policy uncertainty lingers. The pound saw brief strength from upbeat UK services momentum, yet manufacturing weakness and U.S. data risks weigh on sentiment. The yen remains pressured by wide policy divergence, with dollar resilience keeping it under strain despite Japan’s cautious stance. Gold holds steady as traders await signals from U.S. policy, balancing inflation concerns with safe-haven demand amid global geopolitical tensions.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Factors
- Eurozone PMI rose above 50, signaling early signs of recovery in manufacturing and services.
- U.S. Fed remains cautious on inflation, with markets awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for clarity on policy direction.
- Eurozone recovery remains fragile due to weak industrial activity and potential U.S. tariff risks.
Market Sentiment
- Short-lived euro strength came from improved PMI, but upside momentum is limited by Fed policy uncertainty.
- Investors cautious ahead of U.S. PMI data and Bostic’s comments.
Support and Resistance
- Support: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485
- Resistance: 1.1687, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast
- If euro holds above 1.1629, moderate bullish bias remains.
- A break below 1.1590 could trigger fresh selling pressure.
- Upside limited unless U.S. data disappoint significantly.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Factors
- UK services PMI beat forecasts, showing resilience, while manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction.
- UK inflation surged to 3.8% y/y, highest since early 2024, reducing expectations of further BOE cuts this year.
- U.S. PMI results will be decisive in shaping short-term momentum.
Market Sentiment
- Pound gained briefly on stronger services PMI but remains under pressure from global uncertainty.
- Traders pricing slower BOE easing, but weaker U.S. data could allow the pound to rebound.
Support and Resistance
- Support: 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214
- Resistance: 1.3462, 1.3522, 1.3586
Forecast
- Holding above 1.3462 may encourage a test of 1.3522.
- A break below 1.3396 would likely resume the downtrend.
- Pound remains vulnerable to strong U.S. data but may consolidate if U.S. outlook weakens.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macroeconomic Factors
- BoJ maintains accommodative stance but hinted at possible rate hike later this year if inflation sustains.
- Japan’s services growth slowed, while manufacturing steadied.
- Yen weakness mainly driven by wide interest rate differentials with the U.S.
Market Sentiment
- Demand for dollar remains strong, keeping yen under pressure.
- If U.S. PMI exceeds expectations, yen could weaken further.
- Market cautious as BoJ signals gradual normalization but without immediate moves.
Support and Resistance
- Support: 147.09, 146.35
- Resistance: 148.03, 148.52, 149.18
Forecast
- If price holds above 147.09, consolidation toward 148.03 likely.
- Break above 148.52 could restart uptrend toward 149.18.
- A weak U.S. PMI may provide temporary yen relief, but trend remains dollar-favored.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic Factors
- Trading near $3340, awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for clarity on Fed’s rate path.
- Markets pricing over 80% chance of September rate cut, though Fed minutes showed inflation concerns remain.
- Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine) continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
Market Sentiment
- Strong support around $3333, with bullish momentum if prices hold above this level.
- Buyers active after testing $3311, showing strong defensive demand.
Support and Resistance
- Support: 3333, 3311, 3281
- Resistance: 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433
Forecast
- Holding above 3333 supports further rise toward 3358 and 3374.
- Break below 3281 risks deeper correction toward $3300.
- Bias remains bullish as long as Fed hints at easing.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 22, 2025
Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Outlook |
---|---|---|---|---|
🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Eurozone PMI recovery, Fed policy stance | 1.1629, 1.1589 | 1.1687, 1.1710 | Cautiously bullish above 1.1629; risk of decline if below 1.1590 |
🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Strong UK services PMI, high inflation, BOE easing expectations | 1.3396, 1.3313 | 1.3462, 1.3522 | Mixed, upside possible if above 1.3462; downside if under 1.3396 |
🇯🇵 USD/JPY | BoJ accommodative stance, U.S. PMI, yield differentials | 147.09, 146.35 | 148.03, 148.52 | Consolidation with upward bias; risk of yen weakness on strong U.S. data |
🪙 XAU/USD | Fed policy outlook, geopolitical risks, rate cut expectations | 3333, 3311, 3281 | 3358, 3374, 3402 | Bullish bias above 3333; correction risk if below 3281 |