Share


The euro steadied as investors awaited central bank signals, while the pound struggled to hold gains after strong UK data. The yen drew support from softer trade flows, though policy uncertainty lingered. The kiwi weakened after the central bank cut its outlook, reflecting slower growth and labor challenges. Gold extended losses under dollar strength and easing geopolitical risks, though its safe-haven role keeps the chance of recovery alive if tensions or policy shifts reignite demand.


🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers

  • Eurozone CPI for June held steady at 2.0%, showing no change from May, reducing pressure on the ECB to shift policy.
  • ECB expected to maintain a conservative stance amid inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
  • US Federal Reserve remains in focus; the release of FOMC minutes and upcoming speeches by Fed officials may clarify the future path of monetary policy.
  • Any hawkish Fed tone could strengthen the dollar and limit euro gains.

Geopolitical Developments

  • Ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia–Ukraine conflict, with NATO and US leaders signaling diplomatic progress, easing safe-haven demand for the euro.

Market Sentiment

  • Traders cautious ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed minutes, limiting volatility until clear guidance emerges.

Support Levels: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485

Resistance Levels: 1.1687, 1.1710, 1.1770

Forecast: Neutral-to-bearish bias; downside risk if Fed confirms a hawkish tilt. A sustained break below 1.1590 could accelerate selling toward 1.1528. Upside limited unless euro breaks above 1.1710.


🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers

  • UK inflation rose to 3.8% in July, the highest since April, driven by goods and services price increases.
  • Despite strong data, the pound failed to sustain gains as uncertainty about economic growth and policy weighed on sentiment.
  • Fed minutes and US data remain decisive for near-term direction.

Economic Outlook

  • The Bank of England remains caught between persistent inflation and signs of economic fragility.
  • Global economic conditions and risk sentiment weigh heavily on GBP performance.

Market Sentiment

  • Short-term price action remains mixed; inflation supported the pound but market confidence faded quickly.

Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214

Resistance Levels: 1.3522, 1.3586

Forecast: Bias remains mixed. A move below 1.3396 would confirm renewed bearish pressure. Upside potential capped unless 1.3586 breaks convincingly.


🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Fundamental Drivers

  • Japanese yen strengthened modestly despite weak trade data (exports -2.6% YoY, imports -7.5% YoY).
  • Machinery orders rose unexpectedly, offering temporary support for JPY.
  • Fed minutes and tone of upcoming US policy statements remain crucial.

Monetary Policy Context

  • Bank of Japan remains in a cautious stance, with policy expectations mixed. US-Japan yield differentials continue to favor USD strength.

Market Sentiment

  • Yen demand supported by weak risk appetite but capped by domestic economic fragility.

Support Levels: 147.09, 146.35

Resistance Levels: 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

Forecast: Medium-term bearish bias for USD/JPY remains intact, but intraday support at 147.09 offers rebound potential. Break above 148.53 could signal bullish resumption.


🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers

  • RBNZ cut its cash rate to 3.00% and downgraded its economic outlook, projecting further weakness into 2026.
  • Inflation remains at 2.7%, but rising unemployment (5.2%) and weak growth keep policy dovish.
  • RBNZ guidance hints at possible further easing to 2.75% or 2.50% over the coming months.

Economic Context

  • Weak labor market, negative demographic trends, and fragile GDP growth weigh on NZD.
  • Emigration at a 13-year high signals structural economic challenges.

Market Sentiment

  • Bearish positioning remains, with most traders expecting further declines.

Support Levels: 0.5881, 0.5821, 0.5767

Resistance Levels: 0.5942, 0.6000, 0.6030

Forecast: Bearish bias remains dominant. A test of 0.5800 is likely; only a strong shift in global risk sentiment or RBNZ guidance could trigger recovery toward 0.6000.


🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Fundamental Drivers

  • Gold fell toward $3,310 as easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar pressured safe-haven demand.
  • Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and Powell’s speech are key events for direction.
  • Expectations of upcoming US rate cuts provide a mixed backdrop, with gold supported long-term but pressured short-term.

Market Sentiment

  • Weak demand as safe-haven appeal diminishes amid optimism for conflict resolution.
  • Investors waiting for Fed signals on rate policy before taking large positions.

Support Levels: 3333, 3311, 3281

Resistance Levels: 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433

Forecast: Short-term bearish outlook, with downside risk toward 3281. Upside potential only if price consolidates above 3358, targeting 3402–3433.


📊 Summary Table: As of August 21, 2025

AssetBiasKey Support LevelsKey Resistance LevelsForecast Direction
🇪🇺 EUR/USDNeutral–Bearish1.1629, 1.1589, 1.15281.1687, 1.1710, 1.1770Downside risk if Fed hawkish
🇬🇧 GBP/USDMixed1.3462, 1.3396, 1.33131.3522, 1.3586Range-bound, bearish below 1.3396
🇯🇵 USD/JPYBearish Bias147.09, 146.35148.03, 148.52, 149.18Bearish unless break above 148.53
🇳🇿 NZD/USDBearish0.5881, 0.5821, 0.57670.5942, 0.6000, 0.6030Likely test of 0.5800 support
🪙 XAU/USDBearish Short-term3333, 3311, 32813358, 3374, 3402, 3433Weakness toward 3281, upside capped


Share
Categories: Market News

Leave a Reply