The euro gained support from positive regional developments, while traders await U.S. housing data and central bank commentary that may shift sentiment. The pound faces pressure as fiscal and tax concerns weigh, though short-term moves still follow U.S. figures. The yen remains under strain near recent lows, influenced by cautious Bank of Japan policy and global negotiations, while the dollar stays firm. The Australian dollar reflects uncertainty, balancing resilient labor data with cautious central bank outlook, while the New Zealand dollar awaits the central bank decision where a rate cut is likely but forward guidance will shape direction. Gold holds near recent ranges as geopolitical risks and anticipation of Fed signals limit momentum, with investors weighing safe-haven demand against stronger dollar headwinds.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors:
- The euro regained momentum after holding above 1.1667, supported by internal ECB operations and mild optimism in European markets.
- Investors are closely watching U.S. housing data (building permits and starts), which will signal the health of U.S. consumer demand and construction.
- FOMC member Bowman’s remarks will be crucial for clues on the Fed’s next policy step ahead of Jackson Hole.
- Market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical developments (Ukraine conflict negotiations) continue to influence risk appetite.
Support Levels: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528
Resistance Levels: 1.1675, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast: Euro may hold firm above 1.1629 if U.S. data disappoints, but strong U.S. numbers could push the pair toward 1.1590. Consolidation likely within 1.1630–1.1720.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors:
- Pound tested 1.3510 but ended slightly weaker, reflecting pressure from U.K. fiscal concerns (tax hikes expected to meet fiscal rules).
- Rising gilt yields suggest investor worries about inflationary pressures, which could force the Bank of England to balance between cutting rates and fiscal stability.
- U.S. housing data and Bowman’s remarks may provide short-term volatility against the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3396, 1.3313
Resistance Levels: 1.3522, 1.3586
Forecast: GBP remains fragile; a drop toward 1.3462 is possible on strong U.S. data. Upside limited to 1.3550 unless U.K. economic outlook stabilizes.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors:
- Yen weakened toward 148 as risk appetite improved following diplomatic talks involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia.
- BOJ remains cautious, stressing low “core inflation” despite U.S. pressure to normalize policy.
- U.S. housing data and Fed commentary could extend dollar strength if hawkish.
Support Levels: 146.74, 146.35
Resistance Levels: 148.03, 148.52, 149.18
Forecast: Yen likely to stay pressured near 148. A break above 148.53 could trigger renewed uptrend; otherwise, consolidation within 147.20–148.20.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors:
- RBA cut rates earlier but signaled data-dependent approach going forward.
- Recent labor report showed unemployment easing back to 4.2% with strong full-time job gains, suggesting resilience.
- Uncertainty prevails due to hawkish U.S. inflation data and Fed expectations ahead of Jackson Hole.
- Market indecision is reflected in sideways movement.
Support Levels: 0.6460, 0.6420
Resistance Levels: 0.6535, 0.6590
Forecast: AUD/USD to remain range-bound; outlook depends heavily on Fed stance. Break below 0.6420 could extend losses, while 0.6590 caps upside.
🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors:
- RBNZ expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.0%, but market focus is on forward guidance.
- Inflation accelerated to 2.7% in Q2, keeping risks balanced between further easing and maintaining current policy.
- Labor market shows weakness: unemployment rising, emigration increasing, participation dropping.
- GDP growth remains modest, adding pressure on policymakers.
Support Levels: 0.5900, 0.5860
Resistance Levels: 0.5950, 0.6030
Forecast: A cautious RBNZ tone may support NZD near 0.5950. A dovish stance with hints of further cuts could push pair back toward 0.5900.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors:
- Gold steady near $3330 amid geopolitical talks and Fed expectations.
- Jackson Hole symposium is the next key driver—dovish Fed may lift gold, hawkish tone could trigger declines.
- U.S. dollar strength limits upside, but safe-haven demand persists due to geopolitical uncertainty.
Support Levels: 3333, 3311, 3281
Resistance Levels: 3358, 3374, 3402
Forecast: Gold remains range-bound, vulnerable to downside if it breaks below 3330. Upside capped at 3400 unless Fed signals stronger easing.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 20, 2025
| Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | ECB stance, U.S. housing data, Fed guidance | 1.1629, 1.1589 | 1.1675, 1.1710, 1.1770 | Consolidation within 1.1630–1.1720; downside risk if U.S. data strong |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | U.K. fiscal pressures, BoE outlook, U.S. data | 1.3462, 1.3396 | 1.3522, 1.3586 | Fragile; drop toward 1.3462 possible; upside capped near 1.3550 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | BOJ caution, geopolitical talks, Fed signals | 146.74, 146.35 | 148.03, 148.52 | Likely stays near 148; break above 148.53 resumes uptrend |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | RBA policy, labor data, Fed outlook | 0.6460, 0.6420 | 0.6535, 0.6590 | Sideways; downside risk below 0.6420, upside limited to 0.6590 |
| 🇳🇿 NZD/USD | RBNZ decision, inflation vs. labor weakness | 0.5900, 0.5860 | 0.5950, 0.6030 | Neutral; cautious tone may support 0.5950, dovish stance pressures to 0.5900 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Fed stance, dollar strength, geopolitics | 3333, 3311, 3281 | 3358, 3374, 3402 | Range-bound; risk of drop below 3330, capped near 3400 |
