The euro weakened as concerns over slowing growth and policy uncertainty weighed on sentiment, while the pound slipped amid mixed domestic data and cautious optimism around central bank moves. The yen held firm, supported by safe-haven demand but limited by the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to shift policy. The Australian dollar traded indecisively as labor strength clashed with softer inflation, while the kiwi faced pressure from weak fundamentals and expectations of easing. The Canadian dollar struggled as softer oil prices offset resilience in domestic data, leaving the pair vulnerable to Fed signals. Gold hovered near recent lows, balancing geopolitical risks with shifting expectations on monetary easing, with traders watching central bank guidance and global developments for direction.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Euro under pressure from weaker eurozone trade surplus and lingering fears of a regional recession.
- ECB faces a policy dilemma: balance between supporting growth and avoiding excessive rate cuts that could worsen inflation risks.
- US Dollar supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, but weak wage growth and lower ISM services PMI reduce bullish momentum.
- Market focus: ECB’s stance and incoming eurozone PMI data later in the week.
Forecast:
- Near-term consolidation likely, with downside risks if European data weakens further.
- Medium-term euro support possible if ECB avoids additional rate cuts while Fed maintains dovish expectations.
Support Levels: 1.1670, 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1710, 1.1770
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Euro under pressure from weaker eurozone trade surplus and lingering fears of a regional recession.
- ECB faces a policy dilemma: balance between supporting growth and avoiding excessive rate cuts that could worsen inflation risks.
- US Dollar supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, but weak wage growth and lower ISM services PMI reduce bullish momentum.
- Market focus: ECB’s stance and incoming eurozone PMI data later in the week.
Forecast:
- Near-term consolidation likely, with downside risks if European data weakens further.
- Medium-term euro support possible if ECB avoids additional rate cuts while Fed maintains dovish expectations.
Support Levels: 1.1670, 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1710, 1.1770
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Drivers:
- Yen pressured by wide policy divergence between Fed and BoJ.
- Japanese economy stronger than expected in Q2 due to exports, but tariffs and inflation risks remain.
- BoJ remains hesitant on rate hikes, despite government pressure.
- Market awaits Fed commentary at Jackson Hole for further direction.
Forecast:
- Short-term bearish bias for USD/JPY within current range unless Fed signals stronger tightening outlook.
- Yen strength possible if global risk aversion increases.
Support Levels: 146.74, 146.35
Resistance Levels: 147.86, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- RBA recently cut rates but July labor data showed resilience (lower unemployment, rise in full-time jobs).
- Inflation remains subdued, giving RBA room to pause before next cut.
- Global risk sentiment, especially China’s economic outlook, heavily influences AUD.
- Fed policy outlook provides counterweight to Aussie momentum.
Forecast:
- Sideways trading expected in near term as traders await RBA clarity.
- Possible rebound if China releases stronger economic data or if risk appetite improves.
Support Levels: 0.6450, 0.6400
Resistance Levels: 0.6550, 0.6600
🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Kiwi supported by risk sentiment and optimism around geopolitical dialogue (US-Russia-Ukraine).
- Pressured by expectations of a potential RBNZ rate cut due to weak labor market and low inflation.
- Fed’s upcoming Jackson Hole symposium is a critical event for USD direction.
Forecast:
- Likely consolidation around 0.5900–0.6000 before fresh signals from central banks.
- Upside capped unless RBNZ delays easing plans.
Support Levels: 0.5900, 0.5850
Resistance Levels: 0.6000, 0.6050
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Key Drivers:
- CAD weakened by soft oil prices and cautious BoC stance on inflation.
- Fed’s dovish outlook somewhat balances USD demand, but CAD weakness dominates.
- Canadian CPI this week could drive short-term volatility.
- Market remains focused on oil markets and geopolitical developments in Ukraine.
Forecast:
- Short-term pullbacks possible, but broader bullish momentum intact if oil prices remain weak.
- Further upside possible toward 1.40 if Canadian inflation disappoints.
Support Levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3588
Resistance Levels: 1.3920, 1.3970, 1.4035
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Gold supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty.
- Capped by strong USD, as Fed signals limited near-term easing despite inflation risks.
- Market awaiting Jackson Hole speech for clarity on Fed policy path.
- Rising inflation expectations may support gold as an inflation hedge.
Forecast:
- Consolidation expected around current levels, with short-term downside risk toward 3320.
- Medium-term bullish if Fed signals dovish bias or if geopolitical risks intensify.
Support Levels: 3333, 3311, 3281, 3270
Resistance Levels: 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433, 3450
📊 Summary Table: As of August 19, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral → Mild Bullish | ECB policy dilemma, weak Eurozone trade, Fed cuts | 1.1670, 1.1629, 1.1589 | 1.1710, 1.1770 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Mild Bullish | Stronger UK GDP & labor, BoE cautious easing | 1.3520, 1.3462, 1.3396 | 1.3586 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish bias | BoJ policy lag, Fed outlook, risk sentiment | 146.74, 146.35 | 147.86, 148.52, 149.18 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Sideways → Mild Bullish | RBA pause after rate cut, labor strength, China data | 0.6450, 0.6400 | 0.6550, 0.6600 |
| 🇳🇿 NZD/USD | Neutral | RBNZ cut risk, Fed signals, global optimism | 0.5900, 0.5850 | 0.6000, 0.6050 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Bullish | Weak oil, BoC cautious, CAD under pressure | 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3588 | 1.3920, 1.3970, 1.4035 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Neutral → Bullish | Safe-haven demand, Fed outlook, inflation expectations | 3333, 3311, 3281 | 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433 |
