The euro weakened after soft growth data fueled expectations of ECB easing, while the pound gained on strong UK figures, supported by hopes of sustained recovery. The yen strengthened as softer US inflation and labor data boosted bets on Fed cuts, pressuring the dollar. Gold extended gains for a third day, lifted by falling yields and safe-haven demand as markets priced in September rate cuts, with geopolitical tensions adding further support to bullish sentiment.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance & Drivers
- Euro rose above 1.171, reaching its highest in nearly three weeks as the US dollar weakened to late-July lows.
- Disappointing Q2 GDP data for the Eurozone confirmed slowing economic growth, raising the possibility of renewed ECB easing despite the July decision to end the rate-cut cycle.
- Market sentiment supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September after softer US inflation data.
- Trade tensions remain a downside risk, with 15% US tariffs on many EU exports adding pressure.
Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD
- Eurozone growth slowdown – Persistent weak GDP growth raises concerns about demand and inflation.
- ECB policy stance – While the easing cycle was officially paused, economic weakness may push the ECB toward further rate cuts.
- US economic data – Initial jobless claims and PPI releases may influence USD strength in the short term.
- Geopolitical trade risks – Ongoing US-EU tariff disputes could weigh on the euro.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.1692, 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
- Resistance: 1.1719, 1.1770
Forecast Outlook
- Near-term trend remains bullish above 1.1692, but consolidation is possible before further gains.
- Break above 1.1719 could trigger momentum toward 1.1770.
- A drop below 1.1692 may initiate a corrective move toward 1.1637, with deeper losses possible if 1.1590 breaks.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance & Drivers
- Pound reached 1.3580, a three-week high, on better-than-expected UK employment data and modest GDP growth.
- Jobs fell by only 8,000 in July vs. expectations of a 20,000 decline, signaling labor market resilience.
- GDP growth of 0.4% sparked optimism but sustainability depends on future macro data and BoE policy stance.
Key Factors Affecting GBP/USD
- UK economic resilience – Stronger jobs data supports the pound, but long-term trend depends on sustained growth.
- Bank of England policy – Potential for continued rate cuts vs. a wait-and-see approach will influence GBP.
- US Fed stance – Fed signals of easing may boost GBP further against USD.
- Geopolitical trade sentiment – Post-trade war recovery prospects may support UK assets.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.3520, 1.3462, 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
- Resistance: 1.3586
Forecast Outlook
- Trend remains bullish while above 1.3520; breaking above 1.3586 opens room toward higher levels.
- Profit-taking could trigger a pullback toward 1.3520.
- A confirmed drop below 1.3392 would shift outlook to bearish.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Recent Performance & Drivers
- Yen strengthened to 146.5, a three-week high, as softer US inflation data increased expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- Signs of US labor market cooling added to USD weakness.
- Domestic BOJ stance remains cautious, with Governor Ueda emphasizing inflation is still below target.
Key Factors Affecting USD/JPY
- US interest rate outlook – Rate cut expectations weigh on USD, supporting JPY.
- BOJ policy – Limited tightening due to domestic inflation concerns caps yen strength.
- Global risk sentiment – Yen may gain as a safe haven if geopolitical tensions rise.
- US economic data – PPI and Fed commentary could cause short-term swings.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 146.35
- Resistance: 146.74, 147.51, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34
Forecast Outlook
- Medium-term trend is bearish; further declines possible if 146.35 breaks.
- Upside limited unless price clears 148.53 and sustains above it.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance & Drivers
- Gold rose for a third consecutive day to 3,370 as rate cut expectations strengthened following softer US inflation data.
- US Treasury Secretary’s call for significant Fed cuts added to bullish momentum.
- Safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical risks ahead of US-Russia meeting.
Key Factors Affecting Gold
- US interest rate policy – Lower rates make gold more attractive by reducing opportunity cost.
- Inflation expectations – Persistent inflation may further drive safe-haven demand.
- Geopolitical tensions – Uncertainty boosts demand for gold as a hedge.
- Central bank purchases – Ongoing buying by global central banks supports long-term price strength.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
- Resistance: 3374, 3402, 3433
Forecast Outlook
- Trend remains bullish above 3351; break of 3374 could target 3400–3433.
- Failure to hold above 3351 risks a pullback toward 3333 and 3311.
- Sustained weakness below 3281 would shift momentum bearish.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 15, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Short-Term Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish above 1.1692 | Eurozone GDP slowdown, ECB stance, US data, trade risks | 1.1692, 1.1629, 1.1589 | 1.1719, 1.1770 | Consolidation then possible upside if 1.1719 breaks |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish above 1.3520 | UK jobs & GDP data, BoE policy, US Fed stance | 1.3520, 1.3462, 1.3390 | 1.3586 | Gains may extend if resistance breaks; watch for profit-taking |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bearish below 146.74 | Fed rate cut bets, BOJ caution, safe-haven flows | 146.35 | 146.74, 147.51 | Further downside possible if support breaks |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish above 3351 | Fed rate expectations, inflation fears, geopolitical risks | 3351, 3333, 3311 | 3374, 3402, 3433 | Likely to extend gains if 3374 breaks; pullback risk if below 3351 |
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