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The euro gained as inflation data matched forecasts, supporting a steady ECB stance, while the pound rose on strong labor data and dollar weakness. The yen eased on reduced haven demand, with markets eyeing Fed guidance. Gold steadied near recent highs as softer US inflation bolstered expectations of a rate cut, though resistance levels capped gains.


๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ EUR/USD Outlook โ€“ Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Recent Performance

  • EUR/USD rose as the dollar weakened despite a neutral German CPI report.
  • Inflation matched expectations, reducing the urgency for ECB action.
  • Fed policy outlook remains the main driver, with markets eyeing September rate cut odds near certainty.

Key Drivers

  • Eurozone: Stable inflation supports the ECBโ€™s cautious stanceโ€”rate cuts unlikely in the short term.
  • United States: Dollar pressure from political uncertainty and dovish Fed expectations.
  • Geopolitics: US tariffs on EU goods remain a headwind for European exports.
  • Market Sentiment: Investors await Fed membersโ€™ speeches for clues on interest rate trajectory.

Support Levels: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313

Resistance Levels: 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770

Forecast

  • Near-term bias: Bullish toward 1.1710โ€“1.1770 if Fed signals remain dovish.
  • Risk: Break below 1.1528 could trigger broader downside toward 1.14 region.


๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ GBP/USD Outlook โ€“ British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Recent Performance

  • Pound strengthened on positive UK labor market data and softer dollar sentiment.
  • Employment fell less than expected, unemployment steady, wages still high.

Key Drivers

  • United Kingdom: Tight labor market sustains inflationary pressure, keeping BoE policy cautious.
  • United States: Weaker dollar from Fed rate cut expectations supports GBP.
  • Market Sentiment: Pound benefiting from risk-asset rally in absence of UK macro news.

Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137

Resistance Levels: 1.3519, 1.3586

Forecast

  • Near-term bias: Gradual gains toward 1.3586 if risk sentiment stays firm.
  • Risk: A break below 1.3280 could reverse the trend toward 1.31.


๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ/๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต USD/JPY Outlook โ€“ U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Recent Performance

  • Yen weakened as risk appetite improved, reducing demand for safe-haven assets.
  • US inflation data boosted Fed rate-cut expectations, limiting USD upside.

Key Drivers

  • Japan: Trade deal with the US reduced auto tariffs, supporting sentiment.
  • United States: Dovish Fed expectations keep USD capped.
  • Market Sentiment: Risk-on environment generally weighs on JPY.

Support Levels: 147.54, 146.62, 146.34

Resistance Levels: 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

Forecast

  • Near-term bias: Consolidation between 147โ€“148.5; breakout above 148.52 could extend uptrend.
  • Risk: Sustained break below 146.60 could trigger bearish momentum.


๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ AUD/USD Outlook โ€“ Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar

Recent Performance

  • Aussie gained after wage growth beat expectations and USD weakness persisted.
  • RBA cut rates to 3.60% as expected, signaling a gradual easing path.

Key Drivers

  • Australia: Wage growth steady, inflation easing, RBA cautious on further cuts.
  • Global: USโ€“China trade truce extension supports AUD through export stability.
  • Market Sentiment: AUD underpinned by risk appetite but capped by long-term rate cut risks.

Support Levels: 0.6514, 0.6500, 0.6410โ€“0.6420

Resistance Levels: 0.6556, 0.6596

Forecast

  • Near-term bias: Possible test of 0.6596, but strong resistance could cap gains.
  • Risk: Break below 0.6410 could open deeper losses toward 0.63 region.


๐ŸŒ• Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook โ€“ Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Recent Performance

  • Gold hovered near $3,363, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and inflation data.
  • Price consolidating within $3,333โ€“$3,358 range.

Key Drivers

  • United States: Lower inflation than expected boosts rate-cut bets, supporting gold.
  • Global: Risk sentiment still high, limiting haven demand spikes.
  • Market Sentiment: Traders watching $3,358 breakout for potential rally extension.

Support Levels: 3,333, 3,311, 3,281

Resistance Levels: 3,358, 3,374, 3,402, 3,433

Forecast

  • Near-term bias: Bullish above 3,358, targeting 3,374โ€“3,402.
  • Risk: Break below 3,281 could signal broader bearish reversal.


๐Ÿ“Š Summary Table: As of August 14, 2025

AssetBiasKey DriversSupport LevelsResistance LevelsForecast Range
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EUR/USDBullishECB caution, Fed dovish outlook, stable inflation1.1629 / 1.1589 / 1.15281.1678 / 1.1710 / 1.17701.1629โ€“1.1770
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง GBP/USDBullishStrong labor data, BoE caution, risk rally1.3462 / 1.3390 / 1.33131.3519 / 1.35861.3460โ€“1.3586
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต USD/JPYNeutral-BearishRisk appetite, trade deal, Fed cuts147.54 / 146.62148.52 / 149.18146.60โ€“148.50
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AUD/USDMild BullishRBA cut, wage growth, USโ€“China truce0.6514 / 0.6500 / 0.64100.6556 / 0.65960.6410โ€“0.6590
๐Ÿช™ XAU/USDBullishFed rate cut bets, inflation data3333 / 3311 / 32813358 / 3374 / 34023333โ€“3402


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