The euro gained as inflation data matched forecasts, supporting a steady ECB stance, while the pound rose on strong labor data and dollar weakness. The yen eased on reduced haven demand, with markets eyeing Fed guidance. Gold steadied near recent highs as softer US inflation bolstered expectations of a rate cut, though resistance levels capped gains.
๐ช๐บ/๐บ๐ธ EUR/USD Outlook โ Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance
- EUR/USD rose as the dollar weakened despite a neutral German CPI report.
- Inflation matched expectations, reducing the urgency for ECB action.
- Fed policy outlook remains the main driver, with markets eyeing September rate cut odds near certainty.
Key Drivers
- Eurozone: Stable inflation supports the ECBโs cautious stanceโrate cuts unlikely in the short term.
- United States: Dollar pressure from political uncertainty and dovish Fed expectations.
- Geopolitics: US tariffs on EU goods remain a headwind for European exports.
- Market Sentiment: Investors await Fed membersโ speeches for clues on interest rate trajectory.
Support Levels: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast
- Near-term bias: Bullish toward 1.1710โ1.1770 if Fed signals remain dovish.
- Risk: Break below 1.1528 could trigger broader downside toward 1.14 region.
๐ฌ๐ง/๐บ๐ธ GBP/USD Outlook โ British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance
- Pound strengthened on positive UK labor market data and softer dollar sentiment.
- Employment fell less than expected, unemployment steady, wages still high.
Key Drivers
- United Kingdom: Tight labor market sustains inflationary pressure, keeping BoE policy cautious.
- United States: Weaker dollar from Fed rate cut expectations supports GBP.
- Market Sentiment: Pound benefiting from risk-asset rally in absence of UK macro news.
Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
Resistance Levels: 1.3519, 1.3586
Forecast
- Near-term bias: Gradual gains toward 1.3586 if risk sentiment stays firm.
- Risk: A break below 1.3280 could reverse the trend toward 1.31.
๐บ๐ธ/๐ฏ๐ต USD/JPY Outlook โ U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Recent Performance
- Yen weakened as risk appetite improved, reducing demand for safe-haven assets.
- US inflation data boosted Fed rate-cut expectations, limiting USD upside.
Key Drivers
- Japan: Trade deal with the US reduced auto tariffs, supporting sentiment.
- United States: Dovish Fed expectations keep USD capped.
- Market Sentiment: Risk-on environment generally weighs on JPY.
Support Levels: 147.54, 146.62, 146.34
Resistance Levels: 148.52, 149.18, 150.34
Forecast
- Near-term bias: Consolidation between 147โ148.5; breakout above 148.52 could extend uptrend.
- Risk: Sustained break below 146.60 could trigger bearish momentum.
๐ฆ๐บ/๐บ๐ธ AUD/USD Outlook โ Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance
- Aussie gained after wage growth beat expectations and USD weakness persisted.
- RBA cut rates to 3.60% as expected, signaling a gradual easing path.
Key Drivers
- Australia: Wage growth steady, inflation easing, RBA cautious on further cuts.
- Global: USโChina trade truce extension supports AUD through export stability.
- Market Sentiment: AUD underpinned by risk appetite but capped by long-term rate cut risks.
Support Levels: 0.6514, 0.6500, 0.6410โ0.6420
Resistance Levels: 0.6556, 0.6596
Forecast
- Near-term bias: Possible test of 0.6596, but strong resistance could cap gains.
- Risk: Break below 0.6410 could open deeper losses toward 0.63 region.
๐ Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook โ Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Recent Performance
- Gold hovered near $3,363, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and inflation data.
- Price consolidating within $3,333โ$3,358 range.
Key Drivers
- United States: Lower inflation than expected boosts rate-cut bets, supporting gold.
- Global: Risk sentiment still high, limiting haven demand spikes.
- Market Sentiment: Traders watching $3,358 breakout for potential rally extension.
Support Levels: 3,333, 3,311, 3,281
Resistance Levels: 3,358, 3,374, 3,402, 3,433
Forecast
- Near-term bias: Bullish above 3,358, targeting 3,374โ3,402.
- Risk: Break below 3,281 could signal broader bearish reversal.
๐ Summary Table: As of August 14, 2025
Asset | Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Range |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
๐ช๐บ EUR/USD | Bullish | ECB caution, Fed dovish outlook, stable inflation | 1.1629 / 1.1589 / 1.1528 | 1.1678 / 1.1710 / 1.1770 | 1.1629โ1.1770 |
๐ฌ๐ง GBP/USD | Bullish | Strong labor data, BoE caution, risk rally | 1.3462 / 1.3390 / 1.3313 | 1.3519 / 1.3586 | 1.3460โ1.3586 |
๐ฏ๐ต USD/JPY | Neutral-Bearish | Risk appetite, trade deal, Fed cuts | 147.54 / 146.62 | 148.52 / 149.18 | 146.60โ148.50 |
๐ฆ๐บ AUD/USD | Mild Bullish | RBA cut, wage growth, USโChina truce | 0.6514 / 0.6500 / 0.6410 | 0.6556 / 0.6596 | 0.6410โ0.6590 |
๐ช XAU/USD | Bullish | Fed rate cut bets, inflation data | 3333 / 3311 / 3281 | 3358 / 3374 / 3402 | 3333โ3402 |