The euro weakened amid poor German and eurozone sentiment data, with focus on US inflation shaping Fed policy expectations. The pound faced pressure from mixed UK employment figures and cautious BoE outlook. The yen slipped as trade optimism reduced demand for safe havens, while BoJ policy divergence with the Fed persisted. The Australian dollar declined after an RBA rate cut, with markets awaiting US CPI for guidance. Gold rebounded after prior losses, supported by safe-haven demand and technical buying, but gains remain capped by geopolitical developments and Fed policy uncertainty.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Drivers
- Euro pressured by weak German and Eurozone sentiment and business climate data (IFO indexes), signaling slowing economic momentum.
- Growing market expectations that the ECB could implement an additional rate cut before year-end despite having ended its easing cycle in July.
- US CPI release in focus: A higher-than-expected reading would reinforce Fed’s hawkishness and strengthen USD, while a soft reading could weaken USD and boost EUR.
- Fed’s Thomas Barkin’s remarks will be monitored for clues on the likelihood of a first rate cut this year.
- Geopolitical backdrop: The upcoming Trump–Putin meeting could influence risk sentiment and indirectly impact EUR.
Market Outlook
- Short-term bias: Neutral to mildly bearish unless US inflation undershoots expectations.
- Stronger US CPI could keep EUR/USD capped below key resistance zones.
- Weak US CPI could spark a corrective rally toward upper resistance levels.
Support Levels: 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
Resistance Levels: 1.1636, 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Drivers
- GBP pressured by concerns over UK economic growth despite a drop in jobless claims last month.
- Bank of England recently cut rates to 4%, with divided votes hinting at cautious future easing pace.
- Inflation still above target, limiting BoE’s ability to aggressively cut rates.
- US CPI remains the main short-term catalyst; higher CPI could weaken GBP via USD strength, softer CPI could give GBP a boost.
- Thomas Barkin’s speech could reinforce Fed’s tone and shift USD direction.
- UK employment and GDP data ahead could shape BoE policy expectations for Q4.
Market Outlook
- Short-term bias: Mildly bearish unless US CPI misses expectations.
- Stronger US inflation data could push GBP/USD toward lower supports; softer CPI could allow recovery toward resistance levels.
Support Levels: 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
Resistance Levels: 1.3462, 1.3586
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Market Drivers
- Yen weakened for three straight sessions as global trade optimism reduced safe-haven demand.
- US–China trade truce extension and improved risk sentiment weighing on JPY.
- Bank of Japan policymakers divided on rate hike timing; majority leaning toward continued accommodation.
- US CPI is key driver—strong data would reinforce Fed’s hawkish stance and widen policy divergence with BoJ, supporting USD/JPY.
- Weak CPI could reverse recent gains and strengthen JPY.
Market Outlook
- Short-term bias: Bullish while above key support, especially if US CPI is firm.
- Soft inflation could trigger corrective pullback toward lower supports.
Support Levels: 147.91, 147.45, 146.62, 146.34
Resistance Levels: 148.56, 149.18, 150.34
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Drivers
- RBA cut rates to 3.60%, lowest since April 2023; third cut this year, signaling a gradual easing path.
- Inflation in Australia now within target range; RBA remains cautious due to global and domestic uncertainties.
- US CPI could dictate short-term moves—strong CPI would pressure AUD lower, weak CPI could allow rebound.
- Broader sentiment supported by extended US–China trade truce and geopolitical dialogue between US and Russia, though any escalation could reverse gains.
Market Outlook
- Short-term bias: Slight downside risk toward lower support if US CPI surprises to the upside.
- Downside limited by improving global risk sentiment from geopolitical progress.
Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6483
Resistance Levels: 0.6527, 0.6550
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Market Drivers
- Gold rebounded after testing $3,340 support but remains sensitive to US CPI outcome.
- A higher-than-expected CPI would strengthen USD and potentially push gold lower as rate cut expectations fade.
- A softer CPI could boost gold as it revives rate-cut optimism.
- Extended US–China trade truce and potential de-escalation of US–Russia tensions reduce safe-haven demand, limiting upside.
- Traders monitoring support near $3,333–$3,351 for fresh buy signals in case of renewed risk aversion.
Market Outlook
- Short-term bias: Rangebound with downward tilt if CPI exceeds expectations.
- Upside potential toward $3,380–$3,398 if CPI misses expectations.
Support Levels: 3,351, 3,333, 3,311, 3,281
Resistance Levels: 3,374, 3,402, 3,433
📊 Summary Table: As of August 13, 2025
| Asset | Short-Term Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral → Bearish | Weak Euro data, US CPI, ECB policy outlook, Fed comments | 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485 | 1.1636, 1.1678, 1.1710 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Mildly Bearish | UK data, BoE stance, US CPI, Fed comments | 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214 | 1.3462, 1.3586 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | US CPI, Fed-BoJ policy divergence, risk sentiment | 147.91, 147.45, 146.62 | 148.56, 149.18, 150.34 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Slight Bearish | RBA cut, US CPI, global risk sentiment | 0.6500, 0.6483 | 0.6527, 0.6550 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Rangebound / Bearish | US CPI, Fed policy, geopolitical easing | 3,351, 3,333, 3,311 | 3,374, 3,402, 3,433 |
