The euro remained under slight pressure amid limited data and cautious investor sentiment, with geopolitical events offering potential but uncertain support. The pound held resilient despite corrections, benefiting from a favorable domestic backdrop and a weaker dollar, though market attention remains on upcoming UK data. The yen traded in a narrow range as the Bank of Japan maintained a cautious policy stance, with safe-haven demand subdued for now. The Australian dollar steadied ahead of a widely expected RBA rate cut, with market focus on signals for future policy moves. Gold faced selling pressure amid tariff uncertainty and profit-taking, with key support levels in play and upside capped unless strong buying momentum returns.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context
- The euro faced mild downward pressure amid uncertainty in both economic data and geopolitics.
- Investors remain in a wait-and-see mode, with limited eurozone data and low trading volumes.
- Market focus is on the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders, which could influence sentiment.
- Probability gap between ECB and Fed rate moves provides some relative support for the euro.
Key Drivers
- ECB policy expectations: very low probability of a rate cut next month.
- Fed rate expectations: high probability of a near-term cut, which supports EUR.
- Trade and geopolitical headlines, especially US–Russia meeting, could trigger short-term volatility.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
- Resistance: 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast
- Likely range-bound behavior unless a breakout above 1.1678 occurs.
- Upside bias possible if US dollar weakens further, targeting 1.1710.
- Downside risk if support at 1.1589 breaks, opening path to 1.1528.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context
- Pound experienced a correction but retains resilience due to strong UK fundamentals.
- Market still views the BoE as cautious on rate cuts, keeping sterling attractive relative to USD.
- Absence of major UK data limits fresh drivers; upcoming labor market and GDP reports will be key.
- Dollar weakness may aid pound recovery in the near term.
Key Drivers
- BoE policy stance: unlikely to cut rates soon unless economic indicators deteriorate.
- US dollar sentiment tied to Fed policy and US economic data.
- Global risk appetite influencing capital flows into GBP.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3390, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
- Resistance: 1.3462, 1.3586
Forecast
- Bias remains upward if 1.3462 resistance breaks, potentially moving toward 1.3520.
- Support at 1.3390 must hold to maintain bullish structure.
- Risk of deeper correction if price falls below 1.3280.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Market Context
- Yen remains weak despite safe-haven status, with USD holding near recent highs.
- Bank of Japan remains cautiously hawkish but faces soft inflation momentum.
- US–Japan yield differential continues to cap yen strength.
- Low volatility expected due to bank holiday and lack of major news.
Key Drivers
- BoJ’s interest rate outlook and inflation expectations.
- Global market risk sentiment; yen could strengthen sharply if risk-off sentiment rises.
- Fed policy expectations and US dollar momentum.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 147.45, 146.62, 146.34
- Resistance: 147.98, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34
Forecast
- Short-term sideways movement within 147.45–147.98 range.
- Break above 148.54 could extend rally toward 149.18.
- Downside move toward 146.62 possible if support breaks.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context
- AUD steady after a strong prior week; markets await RBA decision.
- RBA widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60%, fully priced in by markets.
- Inflation easing toward target; labor market softening.
- US tariffs on China remain a concern for Australian exports.
Key Drivers
- RBA monetary policy outlook and guidance on future cuts.
- Chinese economic performance and US–China trade relations.
- US CPI data and broader USD sentiment.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 0.6480, 0.6450, 0.6420
- Resistance: 0.6540, 0.6550, 0.6580
Forecast
- Bullish bias while above 0.6480, targeting 0.6540/0.6550.
- Break below 0.6480 could trigger decline toward 0.6450 and 0.6420.
- RBA tone will determine near-term trend strength.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context
- Gold under pressure due to uncertainty over potential US tariffs on bullion imports.
- Investors watching US–Russia meeting and key US economic data for direction.
- Price consolidating after a sharp rally earlier this month.
Key Drivers
- Fed interest rate expectations; lower rates generally support gold.
- US tariff policy decisions and geopolitical tensions.
- Technical profit-taking after recent gains.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 3374, 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
- Resistance: 3402, 3433
Forecast
- Holding 3374 support could allow rebound toward 3402.
- Break below 3351 risks deeper correction toward 3315 and possibly 3300.
- Sustained break above 3433 could shift momentum back to bullish.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 12, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Near-Term Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral-Bullish | 1.1589, 1.1528 | 1.1678, 1.1710 | Range-bound, upside if USD weakens |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish | 1.3390, 1.3313 | 1.3462, 1.3586 | Potential breakout if 1.3462 clears |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Neutral | 147.45, 146.62 | 147.98, 148.54 | Sideways until breakout |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | 0.6480, 0.6450 | 0.6540, 0.6550, 0.6580 | Supported by RBA outlook, watch guidance |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Neutral-Bearish | 3374, 3351, 3333 | 3402, 3433 | Capped gains unless tariff fears ease |
Categories: Market News
