The euro remains under pressure despite signs of improving labor markets, as recession fears and trade concerns limit gains. The pound weakens on soft economic forecasts and fading hopes of monetary easing. The yen finds temporary strength as the Bank of Japan maintains caution amid global trade risks. The Australian dollar struggles amid weak Chinese data and a firm U.S. dollar. Gold shows signs of recovery but faces headwinds from strong U.S. data and cautious Fed messaging, capping further upside as traders await more signals on inflation and global policy shifts.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Factors:
- Eurozone Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.1%, with economic divergence—France and Spain showing growth, while Germany and Italy contracted.
- Falling unemployment and inflation provided initial optimism, but the European Central Bank is expected to maintain a dovish stance.
- U.S. core PCE inflation and jobless claims data are key for near-term USD direction, impacting EUR/USD heavily.
Market Sentiment:
- Weak eurozone performance vs. resilient U.S. data continues to pressure the euro.
- Fears persist that U.S.–EU trade developments will disproportionately benefit the U.S., dampening euro demand.
Technical Analysis:
- The pair hit its lowest point since mid-June and broke below 1.1450.
- Bearish structure remains intact with sellers dominating below key resistance zones.
Key Support Levels: 1.1375, 1.1313
Key Resistance Levels: 1.1445, 1.1503, 1.1550, 1.1612, 1.1710, 1.1770
Forecast:
- Bearish outlook unless EUR/USD breaks and holds above 1.1550.
- A deeper fall toward 1.1313 remains likely if U.S. data stays strong.
- Any rally toward 1.1445 or 1.1503 may present renewed selling opportunities.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Factors:
- The British pound faces continued pressure due to weak UK economic forecasts and expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England.
- No major UK data recently, so price movement remains USD-driven.
- U.S. inflation and income data remain dominant near-term catalysts.
Market Sentiment:
- The pound has declined for five consecutive sessions.
- Hopes for a dovish Fed were dashed by hawkish remarks from Chair Powell, favoring the dollar over the pound.
Technical Analysis:
- GBP/USD is locked in a bearish trend, breaking below support at 1.3252.
- A corrective rally could emerge toward 1.3313, where sellers may re-enter.
Key Support Levels: 1.3252, 1.3214
Key Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470
Forecast:
- Bearish momentum persists unless price reclaims and holds above 1.3368.
- Near-term moves will remain sensitive to U.S. macro releases and BoE rate guidance.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macro Factors:
- Bank of Japan held rates steady again, citing temporary inflation slowdown and downside economic risks.
- U.S. data strength continues to dictate USD/JPY’s pace, with jobless claims and income data being key.
- PCE index remains a pivotal driver for Fed expectations and dollar demand.
Market Sentiment:
- A cautious BoJ and strong U.S. fundamentals support the pair’s bullish tilt.
- However, yen recaptured some ground as the dollar paused after recent highs.
Technical Analysis:
- The medium-term trend is bullish, but intraday price broke below 149.18, signaling short-term caution.
- Sellers may target 148.54 or 148.17 for initial downside moves.
Key Support Levels: 148.54, 148.17, 147.94, 147.50, 146.83
Key Resistance Levels: 149.18, 150.46
Forecast:
- Bullish bias remains above 149.18, but risk of retracement persists.
- A break below 148.17 could expose deeper declines toward 147.50.
🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Factors:
- NZD remains pressured amid soft Chinese economic data and global trade uncertainty.
- U.S. dollar strength following hawkish Fed comments is the main weight on NZD.
- Market awaits NZ consumer confidence and building permits data for local cues.
Market Sentiment:
- Short-term bounce attempts seen near the 0.5900 support zone.
- Risk-off flows and anticipation of a weak Chinese outlook limit upside potential.
Technical Analysis:
- NZD/USD broke out of a longer-term rising channel and is testing support near 0.5890.
- A failed double bottom attempt at that level would likely resume bearish momentum.
Key Support Levels: 0.5890, 0.5840
Key Resistance Levels: 0.5940, 0.5990, 0.6058
Forecast:
- Downtrend remains intact unless price can hold above 0.5940.
- Next downside target lies at 0.5840 if sellers break below 0.5890 support.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Factors:
- Gold’s recovery is hindered by hawkish Fed policy signals and strong U.S. data.
- Safe-haven flows are limited despite trade tensions, as equity markets remain relatively stable.
- Tariffs and Fed inaction have strengthened the dollar, capping gold’s upside.
Market Sentiment:
- Market eyes further U.S. inflation data and potential rate cuts later in the year.
- Buyers are active near 3274, but selling reemerges near 3303 and above.
Technical Analysis:
- Price rebounded toward resistance at 3303 but has not broken out.
- A move above 3331 may trigger a short squeeze toward 3351 or higher.
Key Support Levels: 3274, 3245
Key Resistance Levels: 3303, 3331, 3351, 3377, 3401
Forecast:
- Bearish to neutral in the near term unless price breaks and sustains above 3331.
- A failure to hold 3274 would open room for declines toward 3245 and potentially 3200.
📊 Summary Table: As of August 1, 2025
| Instrument | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1375, 1.1313 | 1.1445, 1.1503, 1.1550 | Dovish ECB vs strong U.S. data continues to weigh |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3252, 1.3214 | 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402 | UK rate cut expectations add to downside pressure |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 148.54, 148.17 | 149.18, 150.46 | U.S. resilience vs dovish BoJ keeps upside intact |
| 🇳🇿 NZD/USD | Bearish | 0.5890, 0.5840 | 0.5940, 0.5990, 0.6058 | Trade worries and China weakness hurt NZD |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish/Neutral | 3274, 3245 | 3303, 3331, 3351, 3377 | Gold capped by strong dollar and hawkish Fed |
