The euro found support as optimism over eased trade tensions with the U.S. lifted sentiment, while the pound advanced despite limited domestic data, buoyed by relief over suspended tariffs. The yen remained under pressure but showed signs of stabilizing amid cautious investor sentiment. Gold extended gains as traders sought safety from escalating geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, although some hesitancy emerged. Bitcoin, meanwhile, struggled with volatility, reflecting broader market uncertainty and a lack of solid ground amid shifting global trade and regulatory developments.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Euro in Focus Ahead of U.S. CPI
Overview: The EUR/USD pair is currently trading within a bullish channel after recovering from an early dip. The key driver behind the euro’s recent strength is improved investor sentiment following the EU’s potential move to lift tariffs on U.S. imports, signaling a step toward better trade relations.
Key Factors:
- EU Tariff News: Speculation about the EU lifting tariffs on the U.S. has boosted confidence in the eurozone’s economic outlook.
- U.S. Inflation Data: Markets await the Core CPI and jobless claims. Strong inflation could reinforce expectations of persistent Fed tightening, favoring the dollar.
- FOMC Minutes: Fed remains cautious; some uncertainty about tariff-induced inflation persists.
- German Political Stability: The coalition agreement reached in Germany supports the euro through a more predictable political backdrop.
Support and Resistance:
- Support: 1.0901, 1.0879, 1.0805, 1.0785
- Resistance: 1.0998, 1.1088, 1.1136, 1.1201
Forecast: Bullish bias remains unless U.S. data significantly beats expectations. A sustained move above 1.0998 could pave the way to 1.1088 or even 1.1200. Conversely, a break below 1.0805 would resume the bearish structure.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Pound Balancing Tariff Relief and Rate Cut Bets
Overview: The pound is facing a tug-of-war between improved trade sentiment (after the tariff suspension) and looming expectations of multiple Bank of England rate cuts in 2025. Despite modest gains, the bearish trend remains dominant on a broader scale.
Key Factors:
- UK Economic Uncertainty: Tariff suspension provides short-term relief, but longer-term growth outlook remains clouded.
- BoE Rate Outlook: Markets are pricing in up to four rate cuts this year, weakening pound fundamentals.
- U.S. Inflation Expectations: Higher CPI figures may weigh further on GBP, strengthening the dollar.
- Fed Speeches: Hawkish tone could tilt the balance against the pound.
Support and Resistance:
- Support: 1.2678, 1.2645
- Resistance: 1.2864, 1.2934, 1.2953, 1.3050, 1.3176
Forecast: Pound strength is likely capped near 1.2934 unless U.S. inflation undershoots. A drop below 1.2678 would reaffirm the bearish scenario with further room toward 1.2600. An unexpected break above 1.3050 could shift sentiment toward recovery.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Yen Vulnerable as U.S. Tariff Relief Boosts Dollar
Overview: USD/JPY surged past 147.70 amid dollar strength and cautious risk sentiment. However, the pair remains volatile as traders juggle tariff headlines, inflation data, and potential shifts in Fed policy.
Key Factors:
- Tariff Developments: Temporary 90-day tariff freeze offers short-term calm. Japan benefits from a 10% base tariff cut.
- U.S. CPI and Labor Data: Higher inflation supports further USD gains; softer readings support yen recovery.
- BoJ Stance: No immediate changes to Japan’s ultra-loose monetary stance, keeping yen under pressure.
- Risk Appetite: Safe-haven flows could return if trade war fears escalate again.
Support and Resistance:
- Support: 145.90, 144.83, 144.58, 144.22
- Resistance: 148.16, 149.16, 150.27
Forecast: Expect sideways-to-bullish action with upward pressure toward 148.16 and possibly 149.16. Failure to hold 145.90 would tilt momentum back to the downside, opening a path to 144.50.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Gold Steady Above $3100 Ahead of Key Data
Overview: Gold is holding steady above the $3100 mark, as global uncertainty and rate cut expectations continue to support its safe-haven appeal. However, investor hesitation persists in the absence of fresh catalysts and amid improved risk sentiment.
Key Factors:
- Inflation Hedge: Rising inflation expectations and Fed rate cut bets are boosting gold’s attractiveness.
- Tariff Pause: Temporary relief has slightly dampened safe-haven demand, creating short-term resistance for gold bulls.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Multiple rate cuts expected in 2025 could weaken USD further, supporting gold in the medium term.
- Global Growth Risks: Ongoing trade tensions (especially with China) lend structural support to gold demand.
Support and Resistance:
- Support: $3100, $3080, $3057, $3000
- Resistance: $3168 (all-time high), $3200 (psychological)
Forecast: Gold may retest the $3168 all-time high if inflation data disappoints and USD softens. A decisive break above that level opens $3200. On the downside, a break below $3057 could trigger deeper corrections to $3000 or lower.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Awaiting Direction Amid Mixed Risk Sentiment
Overview: Bitcoin is consolidating after an impressive multi-week rally fueled by institutional inflows, ETF optimism, and expectations of lower interest rates. However, its progress is now challenged by stronger regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around inflation.
Key Factors:
- Institutional Demand: Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and increased adoption support price stability above $70,000.
- Macro Environment: Hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2025 increase risk appetite, favoring crypto assets.
- U.S. CPI Data: Strong inflation could dampen BTC’s rally by increasing real yields.
- Regulatory Concerns: Market remains alert to potential regulatory crackdowns globally.
Support and Resistance:
- Support: $67,500, $65,000, $61,500
- Resistance: $71,800, $74,000, $78,000
Forecast: BTC remains bullish above $67,500. If momentum returns, a breakout above $71,800 could push prices toward $74,000 or even $78,000. A drop below $65,000 would signal deeper correction risks.
📊 Summary Table: As of April 11, 2025
Summary Forecast Table
| Asset | Trend Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Primary Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.0901, 1.0879, 1.0805 | 1.0998, 1.1088, 1.1201 | EU tariff talks, US CPI, German politics |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.2678, 1.2645 | 1.2864, 1.2934, 1.3050 | BoE cuts, US inflation, tariff relief |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Sideways–Bullish | 145.90, 144.58, 144.22 | 148.16, 149.16, 150.27 | US inflation, Japan tariff cut, trade war |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3100, 3080, 3057, 3000 | 3168, 3200 | Fed rate cut bets, global uncertainty |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Bullish | 67,500, 65,000, 61,500 | 71,800, 74,000, 78,000 | ETF inflows, macro easing, CPI data |
