Recent developments in global trade, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting monetary policy landscapes have injected renewed volatility into foreign exchange and commodity markets. President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has not only shaken global supply chains but has also triggered sharp moves across currencies and commodities. Gold has surged to historic highs and is increasingly preferred over traditional fiat currencies as a store of value. The US dollar has come under pressure amid fears of a potential U.S. recession, worsened by trade disruptions. The euro and pound are benefiting from short-term dollar weakness, but both remain fundamentally vulnerable to internal uncertainty. The Japanese yen is gaining on safe-haven flows but faces headwinds if global sentiment stabilizes.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook
Vulnerability Behind the Bounce
The EUR/USD pair has shown short-term strength, bouncing from recent lows on the back of disappointing U.S. economic data and dollar weakness. However, broader trends still favor the U.S. currency unless key eurozone risks are resolved.
🔍 Key Drivers:
- Weak U.S. sentiment and declining business confidence boosted the euro temporarily.
- EU’s tough trade stance has escalated transatlantic tensions, limiting investor appetite for deeper euro exposure.
- Lack of eurozone data limits catalysts for sustained upside, leaving the pair vulnerable to U.S. policy and data releases.
🧭 Outlook:
The euro could continue its short-term correction if dollar weakness persists, especially amid dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric. However, any renewed dollar strength or escalation in trade tensions will put downward pressure on the pair. Political uncertainty within the EU and reluctance to engage in concessions with the U.S. may dampen long-term optimism.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.1088 → 1.1136 → 1.1201
- Support: 1.0991 → 1.0879 → 1.0805 → 1.0785
🎯 Forecast:
- Risk: Break below 1.0805 could trigger a broader selloff
- Short-term: Mildly bullish on correction
- Medium-term: Bearish bias unless sustained break above 1.1136
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook
Fragile Rebound in the Face of Domestic and Global Headwinds
The British pound has strengthened slightly on the back of broader dollar weakness and optimism around government intervention amid tariff fears. However, structural concerns persist regarding monetary policy, inflation targets, and trade alignment.
🔍 Key Drivers:
- Anticipation of Bank of England policy clarity and minutes from recent meetings
- Fears of global recession support the pound by pressuring the U.S. dollar, but this is a short-lived factor
- Ongoing trade conflict and the potential economic toll of U.S. tariffs on UK goods loom large
🧭 Outlook:
The pound’s path will likely be dictated by how decisively the BoE plans to diverge from Fed and ECB policy, and whether UK policymakers signal more aggressive efforts to combat inflation. However, the currency remains at risk if sentiment turns risk-off or the dollar regains footing.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.2853 → 1.2953 → 1.3050 → 1.3176
- Support: 1.2678 → 1.2645
🎯 Forecast:
- Short-term: Slight bullish tilt toward 1.2950
- Medium-term: Bearish below 1.2953 unless sentiment shifts
- Risk: Break of 1.2645 opens the door to retesting March lows
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook
Safe-Haven Yen Back in Demand
The Japanese yen is one of the standout performers in recent sessions, benefitting from surging demand for safe-haven assets amid fears of global recession and risk aversion. Additionally, local economic indicators show a more robust current account balance and signs of consumer recovery.
🔍 Key Drivers:
- Record current account surplus and strong export data support yen strength
- Geopolitical instability and trade tensions fuel capital inflows into the yen
- Awaited comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and machinery orders data could shape short-term direction
🧭 Outlook:
While the dollar/yen pair shows short-term downside bias, the strength of yen appreciation will depend heavily on U.S. interest rate expectations and risk sentiment. The BoJ’s cautious tone on tightening may limit long-term gains.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: 147.67 → 148.41 → 149.16 → 150.27
- Support: 144.83 → 144.22
🎯 Forecast:
- Short-term: Consolidation likely between 144.83 and 146.69
- Medium-term: Bearish bias as long as price remains below 147.67
- Risk: Break above 150.27 could reverse the trend entirely
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook
Risk-Off Boosts, Yield Ties Dissolve
The Swiss Franc is under substantial pressure as global markets shift decisively toward risk aversion. The Swiss franc has surged to its strongest levels in a decade against the U.S. dollar, propelled by intensified safe-haven flows. This comes as uncertainty escalates over Donald Trump’s imminent tariffs targeting 60 nations, creating fears of another disruptive wave in global trade.
🔍 Key Drivers:
- Safe Haven Demand: The franc is rallying due to rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaffirming its role as a safe-haven currency.
- U.S. Economic Concerns: Worries about U.S. economic slowdown and ineffective support from the Fed’s hawkish stance weigh on the dollar.
- Tariff Impact: Upcoming retaliatory tariffs by the U.S. and ongoing trade war rhetoric are increasing volatility and demand for defensive assets like the franc.
- Swiss Policy Constraints: The SNB is running low on policy options, with a potential rate cut in June looming, yet this has not capped CHF strength.
- Export Risks: A stronger franc and looming U.S. tariffs could shrink Swiss exports, especially pharmaceuticals, weighing on GDP by up to 2%.
🧭 Outlook:
While typically sensitive to rate differentials, the USD/CHF pair has diverged from its usual pattern. Rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which might have supported the dollar under normal conditions, are now contributing to anxiety about liquidity and debt sustainability — factors that ironically boost demand for the franc rather than the greenback.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: 0.8400 → 0.8375 → 0.8333
- Support: 0.8450 → 0.8505 → 0.8605
🎯 Forecast:
- Short-term: The combination of risk-off sentiment, U.S. economic fragility, and limited SNB tools supports further franc strength.
- Medium-term: A decisive move below 0.8333 would confirm continued downside momentum, potentially targeting multi-year lows.
- Risk: Potential rebound attempts toward resistance near 0.8505, especially if risk sentiment temporarily improves or the SNB signals intervention
🌕 (XAU/USD) Gold Outlook
The Ultimate Safe-Haven is Back
Gold has decisively reclaimed its place as the dominant safe-haven asset, outperforming major currencies and even the U.S. dollar. Strong central bank buying, ballooning geopolitical risks, and aggressive U.S. trade policy have made gold a preferred hedge against uncertainty.
🔍 Key Drivers:
- Record-high ETF inflows and central bank demand (24% of global purchases)
- Tariff-driven inflation fears and global trade disruptions fuel safe-haven buying
- Expectations of prolonged dollar weakness further enhance gold’s appeal
🧭 Outlook:
The gold market is technically forming a broad bullish consolidation. As long as the metal holds above $2,970, there’s a high probability of upward continuation. Forecasts from major banks now expect prices to reach or exceed $3,350 by year-end.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: 3054 → 3087 → 3136 → 3167 → 3200
- Support: 2970 → 2954 → 2930 → 2906 → 2896
🎯 Forecast:
- Short-term: Likely to retest upper resistance at 3135–3167
- Medium-term: Bullish with target of $3,350 by Q4 2025
- Risk: Sustained break below $2,930 could trigger deeper correction
📊 Summary Table: Currency & Gold Forecast (As of April 10, 2025)
| Asset | Short-Term Outlook | Medium-Term Trend | Key Resistance Levels | Key Support Levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Mild bullish | Bearish bias | 1.1088 / 1.1136 / 1.1201 | 1.0991 / 1.0879 / 1.0805 |
| GBP/USD | Slight bullish | Bearish bias | 1.2853 / 1.2953 / 1.3050 | 1.2678 / 1.2645 |
| USD/JPY | Consolidating | Bearish bias | 147.67 / 148.41 / 150.27 | 144.83 / 144.22 |
| Gold | Bullish | Strong uptrend | 3054 / 3136 / 3167 / 3200 | 2970 / 2930 / 2896 |
