This week’s headline risks: U.S. payrolls (Sept NFP) on Friday Oct 3, the JOLTS (job openings) release on Tuesday Sept 30, and a Reserve Bank of Australia interest-rate decision on Tuesday Sept 30 are likely dominant FX movers. Expect multiple Fed speakers across the week and a cluster of U.S. data (factory orders, jobless claims, home-sales) to shape USD flow.
📅 Monday, 29 September 2025
Asia & Japan
- Japan: Coincident Index (monthly) — measures current economic conditions; often published early AM Tokyo time.
- Japan: Leading Index (monthly) — forward-looking composite used by markets to gauge economic momentum.
- Bank of Japan: Board member speech(s) — occasional remarks from BoJ officials can move yen crosses.
- Japan: Foreign investments in Japanese stocks (monthly) — flows data that can influence JPY and local bond demand.
Europe
- Eurozone: Preliminary / partial CPI components and national CPI releases (Spain, Italy, etc.) — early look at inflation trends that feed ECB policy expectations. Investing.com
- Germany: regional PMI or confidence indicators (varies by week).
United Kingdom
- UK: Building permits / housing starts or business confidence releases (regional data).
Americas
- Canada: Housing starts or manufacturing shipments (country calendar dependent).
- U.S.: Light data day in most weeks — look for Fed speakers and market commentary rather than a headline release.
Market commentary / central-bank speakers
- Various central bank officials across time zones may give speeches or participate in panels (watch Reuters/market wires for live updates).
📅 Tuesday, 29 September 2025
United States
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) — August (release time per BLS schedule; often 10:00 a.m. ET). JOLTS provides the number of open jobs, hires, and separations — watched for labor-market slack and hiring trends. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Secondary: Factory orders, consumer confidence releases (depending on the week).
Europe / Eurozone
- Eurozone: Final CPI and core CPI prints for September (where applicable), national CPI reads (Spain, Germany etc.) — markets watch both preliminary and final prints for inflation trajectory. Investing.com
- ECB-area: Sentix or confidence surveys may appear.
Asia / Australia
- Australia: Housing finance or monthly/metered business data (week-dependent).
- Japan: Any follow-up releases (retail sales, industrial production revisions) tied to earlier indicators.
Other
- Several Fed officials often speak during the week — individual speeches and appearances can appear on Tuesday and affect USD sentiment.
📅 Wednesday, 1 October 2025
United States
- ADP / Private payrolls report (typically early morning ET) — private employment gauge that traders watch ahead of the official payrolls.
- ISM manufacturing or PMI revision releases may be scheduled in some months.
- Construction spending (monthly) — gives context on activity in residential/commercial building.
Europe
- Eurozone / major countries: Manufacturing PMI flash (if scheduled) or national industrial production updates.
- UK: Manufacturing PMI / construction PMI or industrial production prints (week-dependent).
Asia
- China: Caixin or official PMI releases may be scheduled around the start of the month — these influence AUD, NZD, and commodity currencies.
Central-bank commentary / market events
- Additional Fed speakers and regional central-bank commentary are commonly scattered mid-week — watch for high-profile names.
📅 Thursday, 2 October 2025
United States
- Weekly jobless claims (initial claims) — first read on labor market flows; often market-sensitive when the labor market is fragile.
- Factory orders or durable goods (sometimes scheduled this day depending on calendar adjustments).
Europe
- Eurozone: Unemployment rate or jobless claims (country dependent).
- UK: GDP revisions or monthly jobs data if scheduled that week.
Asia / Pacific
- Australia: Employment or wages indicators occasionally fall on Thursday; look for labor-market cues.
- Japan: Retail sales or services PMI prints may appear.
Other macro & datapoints
- Consumer confidence or small business surveys across EMs and Europe.
📅Friday, 3 October 2025
United States — HEADLINE DAY
- Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls for September) — including total payroll change, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings — scheduled release time 8:30 a.m. ET. This is the single most market-moving domestic release of the month for FX, rates, and equities. Expect volatility around the print and revisions.
- Secondary U.S. reads: Average weekly hours, household survey details, and other payroll subcomponents.
Europe & UK
- UK: Services PMI or composite PMI flash (if scheduled) — influences GBP.
- Eurozone: Any final services PMI or PMI composite releases for the month — these feed into ECB forward guidance.
Asia
- Few major Asia releases on Friday mornings, though country-specific data (retail, unemployment) can appear.
Market wrap / month-end flows
- Month-end positioning, portfolio rebalancing, and cross-border flows often add to volatility on the first Friday of the month (especially with the payrolls print).
Additional recurring / watchlist items this week (check timings on your platform)
- Central-bank speeches: Reserve Bank and ECB official commentary can appear any day — speeches from senior officials (governors, board members) are important.
- PMI flash figures (manufacturing / services) for major economies (flash PMI for the euro area, UK, US, China, and Japan) — typically published at month-end / start of month.
- Consumer price and inflation micro-data in national releases (food, energy components, core measures).
- Manufacturing prints: ISM (US), S&P Global/Markit PMIs (global).
- Housing and property data: building permits, housing starts, mortgage approvals in the UK/US/Canada/Australia.
- Trade balance and industrial production numbers across EMs and Asia (China trade and industrial numbers when released can move commodity pairs).
- Weekly flows: FX swap and cross-currency funding notices, which can move funding-sensitive pairs.
Categories: Market News
