The euro saw moderate gains as the dollar weakened, with mixed ECB signals and poor German data impacting its outlook. Meanwhile, the British pound climbed on strong economic data, despite limited UK news ahead. Yen weakened as Japan’s inflation rose but remains under BoJ’s cautious rate strategy. Gold hit record highs driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts, though its overbought status may prompt corrections. The global forex market shows varied movements amid speculation over interest rate changes and the broader economic impact of upcoming US statistics.
EUR/USD
- Support Levels: 1.1183, 1.1147, 1.1122, 1.1087, 1.1068
- Resistance Levels: 1.1195, 1.1275
Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bullish trend, with recent upward movement supported by a weakening dollar and hawkish comments from the ECB. The pair is approaching the 1.1195 resistance level, and if it breaks this level, it could head towards 1.1275. On the downside, strong U.S. statistics or ECB rate cut signals could push the pair down towards the support levels.
Forecast:
- Bullish Scenario: If EUR/USD sustains above 1.1195, it could rise to 1.1275, with strong resistance at this level.
- Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.1122 could resume the downtrend, targeting 1.1087.
GBP/USD
- Support Levels: 1.3367, 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241, 1.3188, 1.3153, 1.3115
- Resistance Levels: 1.3455
Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is also in a bullish trend, driven by positive UK economic data and a weakening U.S. dollar. The pair is aiming for the 1.3455 resistance level, but the MACD divergence suggests that a short-term correction might be imminent. The market will focus on U.S. economic data and Fed announcements for further direction.
Forecast:
- Bullish Scenario: A break above 1.3455 could lead to further gains, possibly targeting higher resistance levels.
- Bearish Scenario: If the pair falls below 1.3367, it could correct towards 1.3242.
USD/JPY
- Support Levels: 143.27, 142.83, 142.19, 141.13, 140.43, 137.26
- Resistance Levels: 144.42, 146.30, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26
Analysis:
The USD/JPY is currently experiencing an uptrend, supported by expectations of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The pair is trading within a corridor between 143.27 and 144.42. A break above 144.42 could push the pair higher towards 145.00 and beyond. Conversely, if the pair falls below 143.27, it could resume the downtrend.
Forecast:
- Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 144.42 could push the pair towards the next resistance at 145.00 and potentially 146.30.
- Bearish Scenario: A break below 143.27 could trigger a move towards 142.65 and lower.
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Support Levels: 2650, 2640, 2623, 2604, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
- Resistance Levels: 2700
Analysis:
Gold is in a bullish trend, with the price recently hitting a record high of $2,670. However, the metal is overbought according to the RSI, and a technical correction is expected. The price could pull back to the support levels at $2,650 or $2,623 before potentially resuming its upward movement. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold prices.
Forecast:
- Bullish Scenario: If gold consolidates above $2,656, it could target the next resistance level at $2,670 and possibly $2,700.
- Bearish Scenario: A break below $2,623 could lead to a deeper correction towards $2,600 and $2,575.
General Market Outlook:
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD are showing bullish tendencies, supported by weaker USD and respective economic data from the Eurozone and the UK. However, caution is advised around key resistance levels.
- USD/JPY is expected to remain strong as long as the BoJ maintains its cautious approach to rate hikes, but a break below key support could shift the momentum.
- Gold remains a strong buy on dips due to geopolitical concerns and potential Fed rate cuts, but overbought conditions may lead to short-term corrections.
Trading Recommendations:
- EUR/USD: Look to buy on dips near support levels, with profit targets around key resistance.
- GBP/USD: Consider buying on support level tests, but watch for potential corrections.
- USD/JPY: Buy on pullbacks with targets near resistance; sell if support levels are breached.
- Gold: Buy on technical corrections near support levels, targeting new highs.
