This week: Markets will focus on a mix of purchasing-managers’ indexes and US macro prints, a handful of central-bank speeches, and a scheduled central-bank policy decision in Latin America that markets are watching closely; expect elevated FX volatility around the higher-impact releases and any central-bank signals about rate trajectories.
📅 Monday, 22 September 2025
Asia & China
- People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy decision / Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting — watch for any change in guidance or tweaks to lending rates; markets will price CNY and Asian FX volatility accordingly.
- China FX/data ripples — any commentary or release tied to China growth, industrial production or policy signals will have outsized impact on AUD, NZD and commodity currencies.
Australia / Oceania
- RBA Governor prepared remarks / parliamentary session / speech — prepared remarks and Q&A can move AUD if wording signals policy path.
Europe / UK
- BoE / UK speaker appearances — BoE-related speeches and any government commentary can nudge GBP, especially after recent local policy shifts.
North America
- US scheduled minor releases and remarks — expect some regional Fed speakers and smaller US releases (housing details, regional indicators) that can tweak USD moves into the afternoon session.
Market color / positioning notes for Monday
- Liquidity typically light at the start of week in some sessions; be aware of cross-market reaction to Asia central bank moves.
📅 Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Global PMIs (prelim) — S&P Global / IHS Markit preliminary PMIs for Germany, Eurozone, UK, and the US (manufacturing and services). These surveys often influence immediate EUR/GBP/USD sentiment.
Eurozone / Germany
- German business sentiment updates or smaller manufacturing prints; watch EUR crosses around PMI releases.
UK
- UK PMI prints and any accompanying press commentary; sterling may jump on unexpectedly strong/weak readings.
US
- US preliminary PMIs (manufacturing & services) and some housing or small business items — risk-sensitive USD moves often follow these tone-of-economy prints.
Other items
- Regional central bank speakers and analyst notes; traders commonly trim exposure ahead of mid-week CPI/GDP events.
📅 Wednesday, 24 September 2025
Australia
- Australian CPI (Consumer Price Index) — a major inflation release for AUD; RBA policy expectations will be updated in response to CPI surprises. Expect a sharp market reaction if CPI deviates from consensus.
Japan
- Domestic inflation or labor detail releases that influence JPY; market reaction depends on whether inflation pressures are rising or cooling.
Europe / UK / US
- Additional regional releases (retail, business sentiment, small prints) and Fed speakers may appear; watch USD vols into the US session.
Market color / volatility notes
- Wednesday’s Australian CPI combined with Tuesday PMIs makes this a two-day focal point for risk sentiment; commodity currencies and JPY can be reactive.
📅 Thursday, 25 September 2025
Switzerland
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision / policy statement — SNB decisions and commentary can move CHF, especially against EUR and USD. Markets watch the statement for language on inflation and FX intervention risk.
United States
- US final Q2 GDP (annualized) — third/final estimate — GDP revisions often influence rate-path expectations and the dollar, particularly if revisions materially differ from prior estimates.
- Other US releases — durable goods, jobless claims, regional Fed commentary, and energy inventories may appear and add intraday noise.
Japan
- Japanese CPI readings — the monthly inflation prints are watched for any directional change; important for JPY positioning.
Europe
- Eurozone and UK secondary releases and business surveys; be ready for headline-driven moves for EUR and GBP.
Market color
- With SNB and US GDP on the same day, expect cross-market repositioning: CHF safe-haven flows vs risk-driven commodity currency moves.
📅Friday, 26 September 2025
United States — the big event of the week:
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — core and headline (monthly and year-on-year) — this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the key release for the week. Markets will scrutinize core PCE for signs on the timing and magnitude of future Fed policy moves; USD reaction may be pronounced.
United Kingdom / Europe
- Any late-week business surveys, retail prints, or consumer confidence updates that add regional nuance for GBP/EUR.
North America
- Weekly US initial jobless claims, personal income & spending, and other routine US data; these can accentuate moves initiated by the PCE release.
Commodities & Energy
- Crude Oil Inventories (weekly) and US housing/new home sales numbers can affect CAD and risk-linked currencies.
Market color / positioning into the close
- Expect position-squaring ahead of the weekend; if PCE surprises to either side, expect spillover into FX and rates markets and potential strong moves in USD crosses.
Additional notes and trading considerations for the week
- Central bank appearances matter: a number of central bank governors and senior officials are scheduled to speak across the week (RBA, BoE-linked appearances, SNB decision day); tone and Q&A can move rates and FX beyond the headline releases.
- Inflation-focus week: with Australian CPI midweek and US PCE to close the week, traders should prioritize inflation reads and how they shift rate-cut or hike expectations.
- PMIs set tone early: preliminary PMIs on Tuesday act as a risk-sentiment barometer ahead of CPI/GDP/PCE — weak PMIs often intensify safe-haven flows into JPY/CHF and US yields.
- Event risk management: for FX traders, consider sizing, stop placement, and avoiding aggression immediately before high-impact prints; volatility spikes and spreads can widen during these windows.
Categories: Market News
