This week: Expect a high-volatility week centered on major central bank meetings and key US data that could move FX pairs, rates and safe-haven flows. Watch the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and projections midweek, major central bank decisions later in the week, and cross-market reactions to retail sales, labor prints and inflation data.

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📅 Monday, 15 September 2025

• China: Industrial Production (monthly), Retail Sales (monthly), Fixed Asset Investment — major EM / commodity FX mover potential.
• Japan: Any scheduled BoJ speaking events or minutes releases (watch for comments that could affect JPY).
• UK: Short-dated gilt auctions or scheduled UK economic data briefs (check local schedule for details).
• Canada: Domestic releases or housing/finance micro-data that can move CAD in a thin session.
• Global: Pre-FOMC positioning flows and front-running in equities and FX ahead of the Fed meeting — risk sentiment cues to watch (equities and oil).

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📅 Tuesday, 16 September 2025

• United States: Advance Retail Sales for August (important for Q3 consumption outlook and Fed stance), and weekly initial jobless claims — high relevance to USD and Fed expectations.
• United States: Crude Oil Inventories (API/DoE) — influences commodity currencies and risk sentiment.
• Europe / UK: Any mid-month industrial production or business sentiment prints for EMU and the UK (watch EUR/GBP reaction to surprises).
• Market focus: FOMC meeting begins (policy meeting runs through the week), traders position for the Federal Reserve’s statement, projections and press conference scheduled for Wednesday; market liquidity may be lower ahead of the decision.

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📅 Wednesday, 17 September 2025

• United States (major): Federal Reserve policy rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections followed by the Chair’s press conference — potentially the single biggest market mover this week for USD, US rates, and global FX flows. Expect volatility across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and risk assets.
• United Kingdom: CPI or core inflation release (if scheduled this week) — watch GBP reaction to any upside surprise.
• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision (policy decision and statement) — key for CAD and cross-asset spreads between CAD and USD.
• New Zealand: GDP or other major domestic release (if scheduled this week) — NZD volatility possible around data.
• Europe: ECB commentary and any member speeches during the day — EUR may react to guidance on policy path and market-friendly technicals.

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📅 Thursday, 18 September 2025

• Australia: Employment data (unemployment rate and employment change) or other labor market prints — major for AUD direction and RBA expectations.
• United Kingdom: Bank of England interest rate decision and statement — BoE policy outcomes and voting split can drive GBP volatility; markets will parse the MPC minutes and any forward guidance.
• United States: Continuing post-FOMC data flow and speeches from Fed officials — any remarks that shift the market’s interpretation of the Fed dot plot or future cuts will move EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
• Europe: Eurozone finalized data prints (if any) or regional PMI follow-ups that refine euro outlook.

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📅Friday, 19 September 2025

• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision or policy meeting outcomes (if scheduled this date) — a BoJ decision can produce sharp JPY moves, especially versus USD and CHF.
• United States: Advanced durable goods or other secondary goods data and final sentiment/confidence prints that can influence end-of-week positioning.
• Global: Week-end risk positioning, month-to-date rebalancing and carry trades unwinding ahead of weekend news — thinner liquidity can amplify moves.

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Ongoing items to monitor all week

• Central bank speeches from Fed, ECB, BoE, BoC and BoJ governors and board members — tone and forward guidance matter more than single data points.
• Geopolitical headlines and energy price moves — sudden risk shifts feed into USD safe-haven flows and commodity currency moves.
• Market positioning (futures, options expiries, large currency pair options) and liquidity around central bank decision windows — can accentuate intraday swings.

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