This week offers a quieter economic schedule, but there are still several key events that financial markets will be watching. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, continue to create uncertainty, which could drive volatility in global markets. Meanwhile, central bank minutes and inflation data will play a significant role in shaping expectations around monetary policy.

Last Week:

• US Federal Reserve (Fed): Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s cautious stance, signaling smaller rate cuts and no rush to ease policy. September’s robust US jobs report, with 254,000 new payrolls and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, dispelled concerns of a weakening labor market.
• Middle East Geopolitics: Tensions escalated as Iran retaliated against Israel, spiking oil prices and fueling fears of further conflict.

Week Ahead (October 7-11, 2024)

Monday, October 7, 2024

• Global Markets: Quiet start with public holidays in both Australia and China, potentially lowering liquidity during the Asian session. Any escalation in geopolitical conflicts could have an outsized effect on the markets due to reduced activity.

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

• Australia: Release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (12:30 AM GMT). Investors will look for any signs of policy shifts after recent rate decisions.
• Data Releases: Generally low-tier economic data throughout the day across global markets.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

• New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision (1:00 AM GMT). Markets are expecting a 50 basis points rate cut, which could continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar (NZD).
• United States: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes (6:00 PM GMT). Traders will examine the minutes for insights into future rate cuts, following September’s 50 bp reduction.
• Crude Oil Inventory Data: Release later in the day, with potential effects on the oil market amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Thursday, October 10, 2024

• Eurozone: European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting Minutes (timing tentative). Analysts will watch for any hints of policy adjustments as inflation dynamics continue to challenge the ECB.
• United States: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Report (12:30 PM GMT). This is the key event of the week, with expectations of a YoY headline inflation slowdown to 2.3%. Any surprises here could influence the USD and stock markets.
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims released simultaneously, though inflation data will likely drive market reactions.

Friday, October 11, 2024

• United Kingdom: UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Data (6:00 AM GMT). Traders will assess the health of the UK economy amid ongoing uncertainties related to both domestic and global factors.
• Canada: Jobs Data (12:30 PM GMT). Key employment statistics that could impact expectations around the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy.
• United States:
  • Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (12:30 PM GMT). While not as influential as the CPI, the PPI can still provide insight into inflationary pressures at the producer level.
  • University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey (2:00 PM GMT). This includes data on inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve monitors closely.

Keep an eye on central bank commentary and geopolitical updates, particularly concerning the Middle East, as these factors could lead to unexpected market moves.