This week features several key central bank events and major macroeconomic releases that could shape global currency movements. The focus will be on the RBNZ interest rate decision, BOJ communication, and FOMC minutes, alongside significant inflation data from China and labor and sentiment reports from North America. Eurozone and UK indicators will provide insight into post-summer economic resilience, while ongoing concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation may create volatility across USD pairs.
📅 Monday, 6 October 2025
EUR – Eurozone Retail Sales (Monthly): A key measure of consumer activity that provides early insight into economic momentum within the bloc.
GBP – UK Construction PMI and Services Data: Updated PMI figures assessing construction and service sector trends, providing a gauge for UK growth strength.
AUD, NZD, and Asian Session Notes: Trading liquidity may be lighter due to regional holidays and observances in parts of Asia.
Minor EM Releases: Several emerging-market indicators are due throughout the day, potentially influencing cross-currency pairs like AUD/SGD, NZD/JPY, and TRY/USD.
📅 Tuesday, 7 October 2025
USD – Trade and Weekly Data Series: Some trade balance or weekly data points are expected, though potential government shutdown-related delays could reduce clarity.
EUR, GBP – Regional Business Surveys: Smaller surveys in Europe may offer clues about early Q4 business confidence.
AUD, CAD – Corporate and Commodity Developments: Market sentiment could be influenced by corporate earnings and commodity price trends.
Overall Outlook: A relatively light data day, though positioning ahead of Wednesday’s central bank events may amplify volatility in the major pairs.
📅 Wednesday, 8 October 2025
NZD – Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision: The central bank’s monetary policy announcement and accompanying statement are highly anticipated; traders will watch for signals about rate trajectory amid economic uncertainty.
JPY – Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Comments on inflation, policy guidance, or intervention risk could move the yen sharply.
USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes (September Meeting): A key release that provides deeper insight into Federal Reserve discussions about rate policy and inflation outlook.
USD – Fed Officials Speeches: Multiple Fed members are expected to speak before and after the minutes release, potentially influencing intraday dollar direction.
Market Impact: A high-volatility day likely, especially for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD pairs broadly as traders adjust to policy signals.
📅 Thursday, 9 October 2025
CNY – China CPI and PPI: Monthly inflation data will be watched closely for signs of economic stabilization or further deflationary pressure, influencing commodity-linked currencies.
EUR – Regional Industrial and Production Data: Secondary reports from Eurozone economies may provide additional insight into manufacturing health.
GBP – Localized Indicators and Revisions: Smaller data updates or revisions to earlier UK prints could create short-term moves in GBP pairs.
Global Risk Tone: Market sentiment could shift depending on how Chinese inflation data shapes global growth expectations.
📅Friday, 10 October 2025
CAD – Employment Report: Canadian labor data will be crucial for assessing the health of the economy and for shaping expectations of Bank of Canada policy.
USD – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary): Early reading for October provides a look at U.S. consumer confidence and spending outlook.
USD – Weekly and Monthly Updates: Any delayed or rescheduled U.S. reports could still appear late in the session.
Week-End Positioning: Traders will likely consolidate positions after a volatile midweek, with risk sentiment influenced by policy signals, inflation trends, and employment data outcomes.
Additional recurring / watchlist items this week
- High-Impact Days: Wednesday and Thursday stand out as the most active days due to the RBNZ decision, BOJ remarks, FOMC minutes, and China’s inflation report.
- Liquidity Conditions: Expect thinner trading volume early in the week due to Asian holidays and potentially wider spreads around major data releases.
- U.S. Data Schedule: Some American releases may experience delays or rescheduling due to government operational constraints.
- Market Sentiment Factors: Ongoing corporate earnings and geopolitical developments could also contribute to intraday volatility across major and commodity currencies.
