This week: major central-bank events dominate — the FOMC two-day meeting concludes with a decision and press conference mid-week, the Bank of Canada announces on Wednesday, the ECB holds its meeting with a press conference on Thursday, and US quarterly GDP + monthly personal income/outlays/PCE finish the week.
📅 Monday, 27 October 2025
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Sep): Measures new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. Key for assessing industrial demand and overall business activity. Strong readings support USD; weak results pressure it.
- U.S. New Home Sales (Sep): Reflects new single-family home contracts and overall housing demand. A major gauge of consumer confidence and economic health.
- Other Global Data: Regional manufacturing, business sentiment, and industrial output figures from Asia and Europe may shape early risk sentiment.
Market Insight:
Early U.S. data (durables and housing) will set the tone for the week. Limited U.S. government releases due to the ongoing shutdown could increase volatility as traders rely on private sector indicators and central bank remarks.
📅 Tuesday, 28 October 2025
- U.S. M2 Money Supply (Sep): Tracks liquidity in the financial system. While not a frequent market mover, it helps gauge underlying monetary conditions.
- U.S. Consumer Confidence (Oct): Provides insights into household sentiment and spending intentions; stronger readings bolster USD outlook.
- Global Activity Reports: Various countries will publish manufacturing and service sector data, along with speeches from central bank officials.
Market Insight:
With the Federal Reserve decision approaching, markets will focus on domestic liquidity indicators and sentiment data for clues on growth resilience.
📅 Wednesday, 29 October 2025
- Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision & Statement: The week’s main event. The Fed will release its rate decision and accompanying statement in the afternoon. Markets will focus on any changes in tone or guidance regarding inflation and growth.
- Fed Chair Press Conference: Provides key context on monetary policy outlook. Markets often experience sharp volatility during and after the conference.
- Other Regional Events: European and Asian sessions may see lighter trading volumes ahead of the Fed decision, but local data could generate intraday movement.
Market Insight:
The Fed decision will drive global FX sentiment, Treasury yields, and risk assets. Traders should expect heightened volatility in USD pairs and commodities as markets react to forward guidance and policy tone.
📅 Thursday, 30 October 2025
- U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Q3, Advance): One of the most influential data points of the week. Markets will look for signs of economic strength or slowdown that could affect future Fed decisions.
- Corporate Earnings Season (U.S.): Tech giants and large U.S. firms will release earnings reports that could impact risk sentiment and equity-linked currencies.
- Additional Global Indicators: Various mid-tier data releases, including industrial and employment updates, will provide context for local economies.
Market Insight:
GDP data, combined with ongoing earnings results, will shape market sentiment and influence near-term direction for USD and equities. Growth surprises may reinforce or counter Fed guidance from the previous day.
📅Friday, 31 October 2025
- U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Sep): The Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Both headline and core readings will be critical for shaping monetary policy expectations.
- Global Economic Reports: Additional data from Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, including retail sales and unemployment figures, will close the week.
Market Insight:
The PCE inflation release will determine whether the Fed’s tone earlier in the week aligns with underlying price pressures. Volatility may remain high heading into the weekend as traders reassess policy outlooks.
Trading and Strategy Notes
- High-Impact Events:
- Federal Reserve Decision (Oct 29)
- U.S. GDP Report (Oct 30)
- U.S. PCE Inflation (Oct 31)
- Volatility Outlook:
- Expect elevated volatility from midweek onward. Fed-related announcements, growth data, and inflation numbers will dictate USD direction and risk sentiment globally.
- Liquidity and Data Caveats:
- U.S. government data delays due to administrative shutdowns may increase uncertainty and amplify price swings around unofficial data or private reports.
- Cross-Currency Implications:
- USD pairs will be highly sensitive to U.S. macro outcomes. In contrast, EUR, GBP, AUD, and JPY will react indirectly through relative policy and growth differentials.
- Earnings Interaction:
- Major corporate results can influence global risk appetite. Strong results support commodity and growth-linked currencies, while weaker outcomes favor defensive flows into USD, JPY, and CHF.
Summary of Key Events by Day
| Day | Major Events | Expected Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 27 | U.S. Durable Goods, New Home Sales | Sets early tone; moderate USD impact |
| Tue, Oct 28 | Consumer Confidence, M2 Supply | Builds expectations ahead of Fed |
| Wed, Oct 29 | Federal Reserve Rate Decision | High volatility; USD and gold sensitive |
| Thu, Oct 30 | U.S. GDP (Q3) | Medium to high volatility; growth focus |
| Fri, Oct 31 | U.S. PCE Inflation | High impact; confirms or challenges Fed tone |
