The week ahead brings key economic releases that will shape global FX sentiment. China’s Q3 GDP data, along with retail sales and industrial production, will open the week with a major influence on Asian currencies and global risk appetite. Midweek, the UK’s CPI release could redefine Bank of England rate expectations. The week concludes with the highly anticipated U.S. CPI report — delayed from earlier due to the government shutdown — which is expected to spark high volatility across all major pairs. Traders should also watch for central bank speeches, PMI releases, and regional holidays affecting liquidity.
📅 Monday, 20 October 2025
China: Q3 GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, and Unemployment Rate — major indicators shaping regional growth outlook.
China: Communist Party Fourth Plenum begins (Oct 20–23) — focus on long-term policy signals and potential economic reforms.
Australia / New Zealand: Light data calendar; markets await any unscheduled labor or retail updates.
Japan: Possible Bank of Japan official remarks; markets cautious as Asia reacts to China’s economic data.
📅 Tuesday, 21 October 2025
Germany / Eurozone: Bundesbank and ECB officials scheduled for public remarks; markets monitoring for policy tone on inflation and rates.
United Kingdom: Bank of England officials deliver multiple speeches and attend events; any shift in tone could influence GBP sentiment.
India: Diwali holidays begin, leading to limited liquidity in INR and lower Asian market participation.
United States: Light data schedule; traders monitoring any unscheduled Federal Reserve commentary.
📅 Wednesday, 22 October 2025
United Kingdom: September CPI release (headline and core) — a key driver for GBP volatility and BoE expectations.
Eurozone / Germany: Monitoring for potential PMI flash releases or ECB comments during the day.
United Kingdom: Additional BoE events and speeches continue; market attention remains on inflation trajectory.
📅 Thursday, 23 October 2025
China: Closing day of the Fourth Plenum — watch for policy signals on growth, fiscal strategy, or monetary adjustments.
United States: Potential release of housing data (starts, sales, or claims) depending on data release rescheduling.
Europe: ECB and national central bank speeches possible; traders positioning ahead of U.S. CPI.
📅Friday, 24 October 2025
United States: September CPI (headline and core) — the week’s most critical release; expected to drive significant USD volatility and shape expectations for future Federal Reserve actions.
United States: Related releases such as Social Security COLA adjustments tied to CPI data.
Global: Flash PMIs for manufacturing and services from major economies — key sentiment indicators for EUR, GBP, and USD pairs.
United States: Potential Fed commentary following CPI release; traders braced for strong market reactions.
Additional recurring / watchlist items this week
- Market Hours: India’s Diwali holidays (October 21–22) may reduce trading volume and liquidity in Asian markets.
- Data Delays: Some U.S. releases may remain rescheduled due to prior government shutdown disruptions.
- Central Bank Watch: Ongoing commentary from ECB, BoE, and Fed members could influence volatility beyond headline data events.
- Monitor China’s Q3 GDP and economic data on Monday for early-week market direction.
- Focus on UK CPI midweek as a critical event for GBP volatility.
- Prepare for heightened volatility Friday during the U.S. CPI release — manage positions carefully.
- Track central bank remarks from ECB, BoE, and Fed officials for forward guidance.
- Be mindful of regional holidays (Diwali) that may thin liquidity during the week.
