This week promises volatility in financial markets, influenced by key global events such as central bank decisions and economic data releases. The ECB is set to announce a rate cut, while New Zealand’s inflation figures and Australia’s employment data could sway their respective monetary policies. China’s underwhelming stimulus and weak inflation data have already impacted market sentiment. In the UK, employment and CPI numbers are expected to drive further GBP fluctuations, and Canada’s CPI will be pivotal for the BoC’s next move. U.S. retail sales and manufacturing data will provide additional insights.

Last Week:

• New Zealand: RBNZ cuts Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 4.75%.
• US: FOMC Meeting Minutes indicate a majority supported a 50bps rate cut.
• UK: Real GDP grows by 0.2% in August.
• US: CPI inflation data shows core inflation at 3.3%, headline at 2.4%.
• UK: Andrew Bailey suggests the BoE may lean towards easing rates.
• Canada: Retail sales data shows a mild increase.
• UK: Chancellor prepares for upcoming budget delivery.

Week Ahead (October 14-18, 2024)

Monday:

• China: Stimulus announcement disappoints traders, holidays in Japan, US, and Canada limit liquidity.

Tuesday:

• UK: Employment data release; US and Canada announce CPI data.

Wednesday:

• New Zealand: Quarterly CPI figures.
• UK: CPI and PPI data releases; ECB President Lagarde speaks.

Thursday:

• Australia: Employment data.
• Europe: ECB expected to announce a 25bps rate cut.
• US: Retail Sales and unemployment claims data.

Friday:

• China: GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales data.
• UK: Retail Sales figures.