The upcoming week promises a blend of quiet trading sessions and high-impact economic events, as markets navigate the evolving dynamics of global macroeconomic trends. Last week, financial markets surged on the back of the so-called “Trump trades,” with US equities climbing further, Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark, and robust support for both the US dollar and Treasury yields.
This week’s agenda offers a mix of pivotal data releases and central bank updates, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision and the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Here’s a detailed day-by-day breakdown of the key events shaping the trading landscape:
Monday, November 25, 2024
The week begins on a quieter note, allowing traders to ease into the action. However, early in the Asian session, New Zealand releases its retail sales figures, which are expected to set the tone for the Kiwi dollar. During the European session, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index will provide insight into economic sentiment across the eurozone’s largest economy. Despite these releases, overall trading conditions are anticipated to remain subdued, offering an opportunity for market participants to position themselves for the more significant events later in the week.
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Tuesday follows a similar quiet pattern during the Asian and European sessions. However, the focus shifts to the United States as the New York session unfolds, bringing the week’s first major tier-one economic data. Key releases include:
- CB Consumer Confidence: A critical indicator of US consumer sentiment.
- New Home Sales: A barometer for the health of the housing market.
- Richmond Manufacturing Index: A regional snapshot of manufacturing activity.
These data points are expected to provide fresh insight into the resilience of the US economy as 2024 draws to a close.
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Wednesday is poised to be the most eventful day of the week, especially for traders focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. Highlights include:
- Australian CPI Data: Scheduled early in the day, this release is critical for gauging inflationary pressures in Australia.
- RBNZ Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision, with traders closely watching for any policy shifts.
The European session is relatively uneventful, but the New York session brings a flurry of US data, including:
- Preliminary GDP: A second look at the US economy’s growth rate for Q3.
- Durable Goods Orders: A leading indicator of manufacturing health.
- Weekly Jobless Claims: Labor market trends remain under the microscope.
- Core PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- Chicago PMI: An insight into business conditions in the Midwest.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes will be released, offering clues about the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory.
Thursday, November 28, 2024
The Thanksgiving holiday in the United States ensures a quieter trading day, particularly during the New York session. However, earlier in the day, eurozone-focused traders will monitor Germany’s CPI data, a vital inflation measure for Europe’s largest economy.
In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak during the evening in Sydney, potentially providing updates on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook. Beyond these events, liquidity is expected to thin out as US markets pause for the holiday.
Friday, November 29, 2024
Friday begins with the release of Japan’s Tokyo CPI figures, an important indicator of inflation in one of Asia’s largest economies. During the European session, traders will digest:
- Swiss GDP Data: Offering a snapshot of economic growth in Switzerland.
- Eurozone CPI Data: Critical for determining inflation trends across the monetary union.
The spotlight shifts to Canada during the New York session, with the release of Canadian GDP figures, expected to provide insights into the nation’s economic health. However, overall trading activity may remain muted, as many US market participants extend the Thanksgiving break into a long weekend.
As the week unfolds, market participants will balance anticipation of key data releases with the seasonal slowdown in activity due to Thanksgiving. While quieter moments may provide breathing space, the packed midweek agenda ensures there will be no shortage of opportunities for those attuned to market movements. Stay informed and prepared to navigate the complexities of the week ahead.
