This is a holiday-shortened week (US Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, Nov 27) so global markets will be quieter around the US holiday but there are still several high-profile releases earlier in the week that can move FX — notably a heavy set of US price and retail figures, labour market cues midweek, the UK budget on Nov 26, and a handful of European and Asia-Pacific releases and central bank / central bank-adjacent speeches.
📅 Monday, 24 November 2025
Market context & schedule notes: start of a light, holiday-shortened week; many traders position ahead of Tuesday/Wednesday releases.
Possible low-impact data (regional/industry indicators, small releases) across EM and EU time zones — monitor local reporters and national statistical offices for any late adjustments.
Corporate calendar: earnings and company-level releases continue; expect some individual equities and fixed-income flows to set tone for risk sentiment.
Rates & central bank calendar: no major scheduled policy decisions (big central bank decisions concentrated later in the week).
📅 Tuesday, 25 November 2025
US major releases (busy day): retail sales, Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI, Case-Shiller home price index, pending home sales, business inventories, consumer confidence — these US demand/inflation/real-estate prints can move USD, rates and equity sentiment.
Eurozone/national data: watch business sentiment/PMI revisions and any German national releases (retail, confidence) that could affect EUR sentiment.
Asia: routine trade and industrial production updates from regional reporters; small EM CPI or trade prints possible.
Market mechanics: increased volatility likelihood around US retail sales and PPI windows — prepare for wider bid-ask spreads and thinner liquidity into the US close.
📅 Wednesday, 26 November 2025
United States: second-estimate GDP (Q3/Q4 depending on release sequence), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes including core PCE — these are the US inflation measures watched closely by markets ahead of Fed policy decisions and are central to USD and rates moves.
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand — Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate announcement (OCR) — an OCR decision / MPS is scheduled for this date and is a high-impact event for NZD and cross-pairs with AUD; markets will react to the RBNZ’s policy bias and language about future cuts or pausing.
Australia: first release of the new complete monthly CPI (transition from quarterly to monthly series) — this CPI launch and the October monthly reading will be market-relevant for AUD and for expectations of the RBA’s communication cadence.
Other US/Global prints: durable goods orders, Chicago PMI, initial & continuing jobless claims, the Fed’s Beige Book — multiple US releases amplify the USD-sensitivity of the session.
UK: run-up to the UK Autumn Budget (to be delivered today) — fiscal announcements and updated borrowing/forecast numbers will influence GBP, gilts, and risk premium pricing.
Market implications: this is the critical day of the week — expect concentrated volumes, sharp intra-day moves, and elevated cross-asset correlations (USD, AUD, NZD, GBP, rates, equities). Position sizing and stop-management essential.
📅 Thursday, 27 November 2025
US markets: Thanksgiving Day — many US markets are closed (equities closed; bonds closed or thin), liquidity is very thin in FX and fixed income for the US session; economic headlines are limited.
Japan: Tokyo CPI (Tokyo area consumer price indexes, headline/core) release — this regional CPI read for October/November often previews national inflation momentum and can influence JPY flows and BoJ expectations.
Europe / UK: keep an eye for any UK Budget fallout, parliamentary Q&A and follow-up commentary — markets will continue to digest fiscal detail and OBR forecast summaries released with the Budget earlier.
Asia / EM: normal regional data flow resumes (trade, industrial production, small CPI/trade figures), but overall liquidity remains thinner because of the US holiday.
Trading note: expect wider spreads and sporadic jumps; many institutional desks operate in reduced capacity.
📅Friday, 28 November 2025
Market hours: US equities and bond markets close early (typical Black Friday early close) — liquidity is reduced, especially in the US session.
Europe & national releases: German retail sales, German CPI components, Swiss GDP — country-level prints in Europe that can move EUR and CHF; watch headline vs. core divergences.
Canada: GDP or activity indicators may be scheduled — Canadian data can move CAD crosses, especially against USD and commodity currencies.
Market posture into the weekend: thin liquidity, profit-taking and risk consolidation common; traders often flatten or reduce directional exposure ahead of a multi-day holiday window and the UK/US fiscal prints digesting.
Practical notes this week
Liquidity & execution: expect thinner liquidity on Thursday (US Thanksgiving) and an early close Friday; widen stops or reduce target sizes accordingly.
Event clustering: the largest market moves are most likely on Wednesday (US PCE/GDP, RBNZ OCR, Australia’s new monthly CPI and the UK Budget); treat Wednesday as the highest risk/opportunity day.
Cross-asset signals: fiscal announcements (UK Budget) can shift gilt yields and GBP risk premium while US PCE and GDP shape USD/rates direction — watch correlations between USD, sovereign yields and equity volatility.
Macro calendar hygiene: keep live feeds open for revision releases (some prior releases were delayed earlier in the year) and use broker or calendar alerts for exact local release times in your trading timezone.
