Following a week marked by optimism over global trade developments—particularly between the United States and key partners like China—investors saw moderate gains across various markets. However, that optimism was tempered by a cautious undertone, as market participants remain sensitive to both economic indicators and any shifts in central bank rhetoric. As we enter the third full week of May, traders will once again turn their attention to macroeconomic signals and policy commentary to gauge the global economy’s next direction.
📅 Monday, 19 May 2025
Asian Session:
- China will release a batch of high-impact economic data that could influence risk sentiment at the start of the trading week:
- Industrial Production figures, providing a look at output growth across China’s manufacturing sector.
- Retail Sales data, offering insight into consumer spending trends in the world’s second-largest economy.
European and U.S. Sessions:
- No major economic data releases scheduled.
- Market focus may shift to speeches from key central bank figures, offering guidance on policy outlooks:
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chair Martin Schlegel is expected to speak, possibly providing insight into Switzerland’s monetary stance amid global inflation dynamics.
- From the U.S. Federal Reserve, speeches are scheduled from Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Philip Jefferson, and Lorie Logan, which could shed light on inflation expectations and rate trajectory discussions.
📅 Tuesday, 20 May 2025
Asian Session:
- Interest rate decisions are expected from two major central banks in the Asia-Pacific region:
- People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is set to announce its policy decision, with close attention on any moves to support domestic demand or stabilize the property market.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also deliver its latest monetary policy update, which could influence sentiment on the Australian dollar and broader regional risk appetite.
European Session:
- A subdued calendar with no major releases expected; however, traders may remain attentive to post-policy remarks and geopolitical news.
North American Session:
- A significant data release comes from Canada, where Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be reported. These inflation readings may influence expectations around future Bank of Canada rate decisions and could have spillover effects on broader market pricing.
📅 Wednesday, 21 May 2025
European Session:
- The spotlight will be on the United Kingdom, with the release of its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The report is likely to play a key role in shaping market expectations regarding the Bank of England’s next policy moves.
- Shortly after, the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its Financial Stability Review, which assesses systemic risks within the Eurozone and may hint at policy considerations related to financial market resilience.
North American Session:
- The U.S. will publish its Crude Oil Inventory data, providing a glimpse into energy demand and supply balances, which can influence oil markets and inflation expectations.
- Other than that, the midweek calendar is expected to remain relatively light, potentially allowing markets to consolidate ahead of Thursday’s fuller agenda.
📅 Thursday, 15 May 2025
Across All Regions:
- A wave of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys for both services and manufacturing sectors will be released, offering a snapshot of business conditions and economic momentum:
- Australia, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Euro Area, and the United States will all publish flash PMI readings.
European Session:
- In addition to PMIs, Germany will report its IFO Business Climate Index, which gauges business sentiment and can be a leading indicator of economic activity in Europe’s largest economy.
North American Session:
- The U.S. will release its Weekly Jobless Claims report, continuing to track trends in the labor market.
- Central bank commentary will again feature prominently:
- In the UK, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Megan Greene (Breedon) and Swati Dhingra are scheduled to speak.
- From the U.S., John Williams will provide another address, potentially expanding on earlier Fed messaging from the week.
📅 Friday, 16 May 2025
Asian Session:
- New Zealand will publish its Retail Sales figures, giving a clearer picture of domestic consumption patterns in the region.
European Session:
- UK Retail Sales data will be released, a key gauge of consumer demand, especially relevant in the current environment shaped by evolving trade policies and cost-of-living pressures.
North American Session:
- Canada will report its own Retail Sales numbers, closing out the week with another look into North American consumption trends.
- The U.S. will release New Home Sales data, which will offer insight into the strength of the housing market—a sector closely watched for signs of broader economic resilience or weakness.
- No major additional events are scheduled, potentially allowing for a smoother close to the week, barring any surprise headlines or geopolitical developments.
Summary Outlook:
The week of 19 May 2025 is set to be a nuanced one for global markets, with investor sentiment likely to ebb and flow in response to key economic indicators and policy communications. While the volume of major data releases is moderate, the quality and relevance of the information—ranging from inflation metrics and retail activity to central bank commentary—could still generate significant price movements. Traders should remain alert to shifting expectations, especially with Retail Sales and CPI data dominating mid-to-late week sessions and central banks providing ongoing forward guidance.
