As we step into the first week of March, financial markets brace for a series of crucial economic updates. This period is particularly significant due to key U.S. data releases, most notably the monthly employment numbers. Additionally, investors will be closely watching developments from major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), which is set to announce its latest interest rate decision.
With heightened anticipation surrounding these events, market volatility is expected to rise as traders react to the economic indicators and policy decisions. Below is a structured breakdown of the major risk events to monitor throughout the week:
Monday, 3 March 2025
- Asian Session: Expected to be relatively quiet with no major scheduled data releases.
- European Session: The focus begins with the release of the European Union’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shortly after the London market opens.
- U.S. Session: Key economic reports include the Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index, which will provide insights into the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Tuesday, 4 March 2025
- Asian Session:
- Australian markets take center stage with the release of Retail Sales data.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be published, shedding light on the central bank’s outlook on inflation and interest rates.
- European & U.S. Sessions:
- A relatively quiet trading day, but market participants will pay attention to speeches from key central bankers, including Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member John Williams.
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
- Asian Session:
- Australian markets remain a focal point as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is set for release, which could impact the Australian dollar.
- European Session:
- Key Swiss economic indicators come into play with the release of the Swiss CPI report during the European market open, potentially influencing the Swiss franc.
- U.S. Session:
- Market participants will turn their attention to the labor market as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is released.
- Other key reports include the Final Services PMI and ISM Services PMI data.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its weekly Crude Oil Inventory report, which could impact oil prices and energy-related assets.
Thursday, 6 March 2025
- Asian Session:
- New Zealand traders will be on high alert as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr delivers a speech.
- European Session:
- The spotlight will be on the UK as the Construction PMI report is released.
- The most significant event of the day is the ECB Rate Decision, followed by the ECB’s official statement and press conference, which could drive major market movements.
- U.S. Session:
- The weekly U.S. Unemployment Claims report will be released shortly after the market opens.
- Canadian market participants will be watching the Ivey PMI numbers.
Friday, 7 March 2025
- Asian & European Sessions:
- Trading activity is expected to be subdued in the early sessions as markets await the major U.S. employment data release.
- U.S. Session:
- The primary market-moving event of the week is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with consensus estimates forecasting an increase of +156K jobs.
- Simultaneously, Canadian employment data will be released, but market impact is expected to be dominated by U.S. figures.
- The session remains active beyond the employment data, as multiple FOMC members, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak, potentially providing further insights into the Fed’s policy stance.
Market Expectations and Key Takeaways
Traders should monitor central bank commentary closely, as policymakers’ statements could influence market sentiment.
Increased volatility is expected, especially around the ECB’s rate decision and U.S. employment data.
Major currency pairs, equities, and commodities will likely see significant price movements in response to economic releases.
