The week ahead presents a complex mix of geopolitical shocks and crucial economic data releases, with the US once again in the global spotlight. As the world grapples with the fallout from the sudden US-led military strike on Iran, financial markets are bracing for potential aftershocks across multiple asset classes. The geopolitical escalation is already shifting investor sentiment, particularly around oil and risk-sensitive assets, while central bank policy expectations continue to anchor major currency movements. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Congressional testimony and fresh inflation readings from the US could add more fuel to the fire—or calm markets if his tone reassures investors. Meanwhile, an international stream of economic data from the UK, Eurozone, Japan, Canada, Australia, and others will help shape the macroeconomic outlook as Q2 ends.
Here is the day-by-day breakdown of key events and releases for the week of June 23–27, 2025:
📅 Monday, 23 June 2025
- Preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June is scheduled from:
- Australia – Flash manufacturing and services figures
- Japan – Manufacturing and services indicators
- France – Flash composite and sector PMIs
- Germany – Early readouts on industrial activity
- Euro Area – Broad PMI data reflecting economic momentum
- United Kingdom – Service and manufacturing sentiment indicators
- United States – Flash PMIs to gauge real-time shifts in business sentiment
These forward-looking indicators will offer the first comprehensive pulse on global economic activity for June, with investors watching for signs of resilience or slowdown in the manufacturing and service sectors.
📅 Tuesday, 24 June 2025
- Japan – Chain store sales for May will shed light on consumer spending habits.
- Germany – The Ifo Business Climate Index for June is due, offering insight into the country’s economic outlook from the perspective of German firms.
- United Kingdom – CBI industrial trends orders for June will be released, providing a snapshot of manufacturing orders and expectations.
- Canada – CPI inflation data for May takes center stage, with markets watching closely for pricing pressure trends.
- United States – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June is scheduled, which could influence market sentiment depending on consumer perceptions of inflation and employment.
This day is packed with critical sentiment and inflation readings, which will likely influence bond yields and central bank policy expectations.
📅 Wednesday, 25 June 2025
- New Zealand – May trade balance figures are due, which will help assess export-led economic performance.
- Japan – The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its most recent policy meeting, potentially shedding light on internal disagreements over future rate direction.
- Australia – CPI inflation data for May will inform interest rate expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Czech Republic – The central bank announces its interest rate decision, following signs of persistent inflationary pressures in Central Europe.
- United States – Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House of Representatives, offering detailed remarks on the Fed’s outlook and possibly hinting at the timing of the next rate adjustment.
Powell’s appearance could set the tone for market direction midweek, particularly if he addresses geopolitical risks or inflation trajectories more pointedly.
📅 Thursday, 26 June 2025
- Germany – GfK Consumer Climate Index for July will help measure household sentiment and spending intentions.
- United Kingdom – CBI distributive trades survey for June offers another consumer-sector pulse check.
- United States – A packed schedule includes:
- Durable goods orders for May, reflecting business investment trends.
- Final Q1 GDP growth figures, providing a more accurate assessment of the US economy’s early-year performance.
- Weekly initial jobless claims, which remain a leading indicator for labor market health.
The combination of spending, growth, and employment data will test the resilience of the US economy in light of ongoing price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
📅Friday, 27 June 2025
- Japan – Tokyo’s CPI data for June serves as a leading indicator for nationwide inflation trends.
- France – Preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June is due, providing an early glimpse into Eurozone inflation.
- Czech Republic – Revised Q1 GDP growth figures will be published.
- Eurozone – Economic sentiment data for June will provide clues about consumer and business optimism.
- Canada – GDP growth data for April will shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy path.
- United States – A trio of crucial reports:
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure
- Personal income and spending data for May
- Final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June
All eyes will be on the US inflation print. A higher-than-expected PCE figure could validate the Fed’s cautious stance and strengthen the dollar, while a softer number might reignite expectations for earlier rate cuts.
Key Themes to Watch This Week
US-Iran Conflict: Markets are digesting the surprise US military strike in support of Israel against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Although the operation is reportedly complete and successful, Iran’s threats and potential retaliation—including a reported attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz—pose enormous risks to global oil supply and broader geopolitical stability.
Oil Market Volatility: The security of maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz is under threat. Any disruption here could cause oil prices to spike and weigh on risk sentiment globally.
Political Fallout in Washington: President Trump is under heavy scrutiny for authorizing military action without Congressional approval. Calls for impeachment from some lawmakers add a layer of domestic political uncertainty that could unsettle financial markets and affect dollar strength.
Powell’s Testimony: The Fed Chair is expected to deliver a cautious message when he appears before Congress this week, highlighting persistent inflation risks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. With core inflation running above target and recent data indicating labor market tightness, Powell is unlikely to signal a policy pivot.
US Inflation Outlook: Friday’s PCE inflation release could be the most market-sensitive event of the week. An upside surprise may strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady for longer, while a softer reading could pave the way for easing later this year.
Global Central Bank Snapshot
- Federal Reserve: Maintained rates last week and signaled two possible cuts by year-end. Uncertainty remains high, especially amid external shocks and mixed data.
- Bank of England: Held rates but saw increased dissent among members in favor of a cut, fueling speculation of easing by August.
- Bank of Japan: Left rates unchanged and confirmed a gradual reduction of its bond-buying program through early 2026.
- Swiss National Bank: Delivered a surprise 25 basis point cut to counter low inflation and a strong franc, while signaling reluctance to revisit negative interest rates.
Summary Outlook
Markets enter the final week of June with caution, balancing the immediate geopolitical shock of US-Iran escalation with the slow drip of economic data that could recalibrate expectations for monetary policy. The US dollar remains sensitive to any shifts in Fed rhetoric, especially from Powell. Inflation remains the key thread running through the week, and Friday’s PCE report could be a turning point for the second half of the year.
| Theme | Focus This Week |
|---|---|
| US Monetary Policy | Powell’s testimony, PCE inflation, and GDP data |
| Geopolitical Risks | US-Iran conflict escalation and Strait of Hormuz security |
| Inflation Watch | CPI from US, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Europe |
| Central Bank Sentiment | Follow-up remarks post-Fed, BoE, SNB, and BoJ policy meetings |
| Market Volatility | Oil price swings, political fallout in the US, potential shifts in global risk sentiment |
