As global markets stabilize following last week’s ceasefire in the Middle East and renewed optimism over trade negotiations, investor attention pivots sharply toward fundamental economic data and central bank commentary. The highlight of the week will be a dense cluster of US employment indicators, culminating in the release of the June non-farm payrolls report. Alongside this, the European Central Bank’s prestigious annual forum in Sintra will host influential central bankers from around the world, offering potential clues into future monetary policy paths. Additionally, inflation data from the eurozone and Switzerland will be closely analyzed, while China’s latest PMI figures are expected to provide further insights into Asia’s growth trajectory.
Here’s a detailed day-by-day breakdown of the key market-moving events ahead:
📅 Monday, 30 June 2025
Asia-Pacific Session:
- China releases its official June Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data, expected to reflect modest improvement, offering insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
European Session:
- Germany’s Preliminary CPI figures for June are due, likely to shape expectations ahead of the eurozone’s aggregate inflation report.
US Session:
- Fed officials Bostic and Goolsbee are scheduled to speak, potentially addressing inflation and employment trends.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB’s Central Banking Forum in Sintra, setting the tone for the week’s policy discussions.
📅 Tuesday, 1 July 2025
Asia-Pacific Session:
- A relatively quiet calendar, with markets awaiting key events later in the day.
European Session:
- The eurozone’s Flash CPI report for June will be released. Headline inflation is projected to edge up slightly, with the core measure expected to remain stable.
- Continued coverage from the Sintra Forum, where leading central bankers—including Powell, Lagarde, Bailey, and Ueda—are set to participate in a high-profile policy panel.
US Session:
- JOLTS Job Openings data for May will be closely watched for signs of weakening demand in the labor market.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is also on the docket, with traders looking for confirmation of continued pricing pressure following last week’s upbeat S&P flash PMI data.
📅 Wednesday, 2 July 2025
Asia-Pacific Session:
- Australia publishes its Retail Sales figures, providing a gauge of consumer resilience amid changing inflation dynamics.
European Session:
- Limited economic releases, though markets will digest final comments from central bankers as the ECB forum concludes.
US Session:
- The ADP Employment Change report is expected to offer a preliminary reading on private-sector job creation for June.
- With anticipation building for Thursday’s official labor data, the ADP figures may sway short-term expectations for Fed rate decisions.
📅 Thursday, 3 July 2025
Asia-Pacific Session:
- No major releases scheduled; traders likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of high-impact data later in the day.
European Session:
- Swiss CPI inflation data for June will be released, with both yearly and monthly figures expected to show minimal change, maintaining pressure on the Swiss National Bank’s cautious outlook.
US Session:
- A compressed but data-heavy session due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
- The June Non-Farm Payrolls report is the centerpiece, with market consensus expecting a slowdown in hiring. A lower-than-expected figure could amplify expectations for further Fed easing.
- Accompanying releases include:
- Average Hourly Earnings, to gauge wage-driven inflation pressures.
- Unemployment Rate, projected to tick slightly higher.
- Weekly Jobless Claims, offering insight into more recent labor market trends.
- ISM Services PMI, closing out the day with an update on the performance of the broader service economy.
📅Friday, 4 July 2025
- All Sessions:
- US markets are closed in observance of Independence Day, leading to thin trading volumes globally.
- No major data releases or scheduled speeches are expected.
- However, geopolitical developments and potential comments from US President Donald Trump may still stir market movement, particularly in light of ongoing speculation regarding the Federal Reserve Chair’s successor.
Additional Themes and Watchpoints This Week:
Last Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report showed softening income growth and higher inflation, adding nuance to inflation expectations after CPI and PPI readings also rose in May.
Speculation is building over who might replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in 2026, with candidates like Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller reportedly under consideration. Markets interpreted this as a signal that Trump may favor a more accommodative monetary stance.
Traders currently anticipate as much as 65 basis points in rate cuts this year—nearly three reductions—which would require the Fed to move at nearly every remaining meeting. This outlook could shift dramatically based on this week’s jobs data.
