Key Economic Events This Week Starting July 21, 2025

Posted by autorebateforex Posted on Jul - 21 - 2025 0 Comment

Markets enter the week balancing geopolitics, central bank speculation, and key economic data. While the prior week featured drama over Fed independence and sticky inflation, the days ahead shift attention toward Europe—with the ECB’s rate decision and PMI data under the microscope. Tensions around trade policy and a possible shakeup at the Fed continue to simmer in the background. Meanwhile, global investors also eye economic performance in the UK and Asia, particularly in the wake of Japan’s elections and upcoming CPI reports. Below is a comprehensive day-by-day guide to the key events likely to shape sentiment this week:

📅 Monday, 21 July 2025

Japanese Elections: Markets open digesting results from weekend parliamentary elections in Japan. Though local markets are closed for a bank holiday, volatility in the yen may spike as investors assess potential policy shifts.
New Zealand CPI: Released in the early Asian session, this key inflation gauge may influence RBNZ rate expectations going forward.
China Loan Prime Rate Decision: Beijing’s move on lending rates could impact regional market sentiment, especially amid ongoing trade tensions.
Ongoing Focus on US Tariffs: While no major economic data is scheduled in Europe or the US, updates around proposed US tariffs could weigh on equities and boost demand for safe-haven assets.

📅 Tuesday, 22 July 2025

RBA Meeting Minutes (Asia Session): Investors will study the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting notes for clues on future monetary policy, especially following recent inflation trends.
BoE Governor Bailey Testimony (London Session): UK central bank policy comes under the spotlight, with markets watching for any shift in tone regarding inflation or rate cuts.
Fed Chair Powell Speech (New York Session): Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks at a banking conference in Washington. With recent speculation about his position, any offhand comments could move the dollar or bond yields.
Richmond Manufacturing Index: Released later in the US session, this regional report offers insights into factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic.

📅 Wednesday, 23 July 2025

US Existing Home Sales: The lone major release of the day, giving a snapshot of housing demand and the broader consumer mood.
Geopolitical Watch: With a light macroeconomic calendar, traders may take cues from political headlines, especially regarding US trade policy, Fed leadership rumors, and earnings from major US companies like Alphabet.

📅 Thursday, 24 July 2025

Flash PMIs (Global): A critical data day. S&P Global releases July preliminary manufacturing and services data across multiple regions:
Australia, France, Germany, EU, UK, and US: Investors will look for evidence of resilience or softness amid tariffs and weak demand.
Eurozone: Flash composite PMI is expected to edge higher, but signs of fragility in manufacturing may persist.
ECB Interest Rate Decision: The main event of the day. While no rate change is expected, forward guidance will be key. The central bank has already eased significantly, and markets want clarity on when the cycle might pause.
ECB Press Conference: Market participants will scrutinize language around growth risks, inflation forecasts, and external pressures, particularly in light of US-EU trade friction.
US Weekly Jobless Claims: Forecasted to increase slightly, this data point helps gauge labor market momentum.
US New Home Sales: Offers insight into the state of the housing sector amid high borrowing costs.

📅Friday, 25 July 2025

Japan Tokyo CPI (Asia Session): This early inflation print is often a leading indicator of nationwide price trends and may steer expectations for the Bank of Japan’s stance.
UK Retail Sales (London Session): After a steep drop in May, the June figures will be scrutinized for signs of a consumer rebound.
Germany IFO Business Climate Index: Provides a forward-looking gauge of confidence among firms in Europe’s largest economy.
US Durable Goods Orders: A barometer for business investment, this figure rounds out the week’s US data releases.
Final Trading Mood: Barring major surprises, Friday may see quieter trading heading into the weekend, with traders adjusting positions based on the week’s central bank signals and global PMI results.

Key Themes Driving the Week

ECB Policy Path: Forward guidance, rather than rate action, will determine the euro’s next leg. Any signal of an end to the easing cycle could boost sentiment for the common currency.
Powell’s Position Under Scrutiny: Market jitters persist after rumors that President Trump considered firing the Fed Chair. While denied, such noise challenges the Fed’s perceived independence.
US Inflation and Tariffs: Recent data show inflation ticking higher, especially in tariff-sensitive categories. If proposed tariffs are implemented in August, further price pressures may follow—potentially delaying any Fed rate cuts.
Fed Chair Succession Speculation: With Powell’s term ending next May, names like Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller are surfacing. Trump’s decision could trigger volatility if perceived as politically motivated.
Euro Performance: Despite a strong year, the euro is on track to end its five-month winning streak. EUR/USD has pulled back slightly this month, and PMI or ECB-related surprises could determine whether the pair resumes its uptrend or dips further.

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