The upcoming week places inflation readings under the spotlight, with several major economies set to release critical price data. Following resilient US job numbers and ongoing geopolitical noise surrounding trade tariffs, investor sentiment has stayed cautiously optimistic. Equities continue to hover near record highs, but the mood could shift quickly if inflation surprises to the upside. While central bank meetings are absent this week, commentary from multiple Federal Reserve officials and fresh macroeconomic indicators across the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and China will shape expectations for future rate moves and guide market momentum.
Below is a detailed day-by-day breakdown of the key economic events for the week:
📅 Monday, 14 July 2025
- No top-tier data scheduled on the global calendar.
- Market participants anticipate a geopolitical update from President Trump, specifically relating to Russia.
- Potential for sentiment-driven volatility despite the lack of economic releases.
📅 Tuesday, 15 July 2025
Asia:
- China will publish a crucial batch of data including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales. These readings will offer valuable insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
Europe:
- Germany is set to release the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, providing an outlook on investor confidence in the eurozone’s largest economy.
North America:
- Canada’s CPI inflation report for June is scheduled, with expectations of a modest acceleration from the previous month.
- The US will release its highly anticipated CPI inflation numbers. Given the backdrop of stable job data and ongoing trade uncertainty, this report could heavily influence rate expectations.
- Additional US data includes the Empire State Manufacturing Index.
- Several Fed officials—including Barr, Barkin, Bowman, and Collins—are slated to speak throughout the day.
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is also expected to make public comments.
📅 Wednesday, 16 July 2025
Asia:
- No major releases in the Asia-Pacific session, offering a brief lull before Europe and North America take center stage.
Europe:
- The UK will report CPI inflation for June. The result may sway expectations for the Bank of England’s upcoming decision, especially after recent vote splits within the committee.
North America:
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, providing another look at inflation trends from the production side.
- The weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data is also on tap.
- Fed speakers including Barkin, Barr, and Williams will deliver remarks that could influence interest rate outlooks.
📅 Thursday, 17 July 2025
Asia:
- No major releases in the Asia-Pacific session, offering a brief lull before Europe and North America take center stage.
Europe:
- The UK will report CPI inflation for June. The result may sway expectations for the Bank of England’s upcoming decision, especially after recent vote splits within the committee.
North America:
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, providing another look at inflation trends from the production side.
- The weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data is also on tap.
- Fed speakers including Barkin, Barr, and Williams will deliver remarks that could influence interest rate outlooks.
📅Friday, 18 July 2025
Asia & Europe:
- No major economic releases are scheduled during the early part of the day, setting the stage for a relatively calm lead-up to the US session.
North America:
- The University of Michigan will publish its preliminary Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations readings, offering a snapshot of public confidence and near-term price expectations.
- With fewer risk events on the docket, market participants may take a more cautious approach heading into the weekend.
Additional Themes to Watch
- Market attention remains tethered to the evolving tariff situation. While recent data has not yet shown a substantial impact, economists expect more tangible effects to emerge in the coming months.
- The Federal Reserve is unlikely to act on policy this month, despite signs of price pressures. However, divergence among officials regarding temporary versus sustained inflation continues to drive uncertainty.
- Fed fund futures currently reflect high odds of no policy change in July, but two rate cuts are still projected by year-end. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could challenge this narrative and lift the US dollar, especially given current positioning.
Summary of Key Events This Week
| Date | Region | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| July 14 (Mon) | Global | Quiet calendar; geopolitical developments (US-Russia) may trigger volatility |
| July 15 (Tue) | CN, DE, CA, US | China GDP & retail data, German ZEW, US & Canadian CPI, Fed & BoE speakers |
| July 16 (Wed) | UK, US | UK CPI, US PPI, Oil inventory, Fed speakers |
| July 17 (Thu) | AU, UK, US | AU jobs, UK labor data, US retail sales & jobless claims, Fed remarks |
| July 18 (Fri) | US | US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (University of Michigan) |
Categories: Market News
